Basketball Preview: Ohio State at Michigan State

By Tim Shoemaker on February 14, 2017 at 10:10 am
Ohio State coach Thad Matta on the sidelines against Rutgers.
33 Comments

There is little better for an NCAA tournament resume than a quality road win.

Tuesday night represents Ohio State's final chance to earn one.

The Buckeyes' tournament chances, though slim, are still alive. CBS Sports' Jerry Palm had Ohio State as his last team into the field heading into the weekend. That was prior to Saturday's loss at Maryland, however, as the Buckeyes fell 86-77 to the Terrapins.

WHO WHERE WHEN TV
Michigan State (15-10, 7-5 B1G) Breslin Center (East Lansing, Mich.) 9 p.m. ESPN

For Ohio State, it was another opportunity at a quality road win gone awry. The Buckeyes are down to their final shot against Michigan State on Tuesday night at Breslin Center. If they don't win, it's probably a Big Ten tournament title or bust.

"We’ve obviously got work to do," Ohio State coach Thad Matta said. "But there’s nothing that can be done except play well [Tuesday] night. Quite honestly, that’s where our focus is and that’s what we’ve told the guys.”

This isn't a typical Tom Izzo-led Spartans team as Michigan State is fighting for its own NCAA tournament life. Earning a win might be just as important to the Spartans as it is Ohio State.

Let's break down Tuesday's matchup a little further.

Opponent Breakdown

It's been a bit of a different feel in East Lansing this season as Michigan State has gone through an up-and-down year — the kind of thing that comes with such a young team. And entering Tuesday's game with Ohio State, the Spartans sit at 15-10 overall and 7-5 in the Big Ten.

Michigan State has won three of its last four games and is coming off a 77-66 victory over Iowa on Saturday. The Spartans' lone loss in that stretch, however, was a 29-point blowout at Michigan just one week ago.

It's quickly approaching the time of year Izzo-led teams traditionally turn a corner.

"Michigan State is Michigan State," Matta said. "They’re going to have a tremendous push in transition and they’re trying to score as quick as they can. If it’s not there, they’re going to execute one, sometimes two sets in a possession. Finishing with rebounding is something that is very important." 

"I thought from Game 1, the way they started hitting their first six or seven shots, we did a good job of sort of staying the course and taking a lead in at halftime. Then we did a good job of getting the stops down the stretch when we needed them."

Michigan State and Ohio State played once already this season. The game was played back on Jan. 15 with the Buckeyes coming away with a 72-67 victory in Columbus. 

Star freshman Miles Bridges carried the Spartans on that day as he scored 24 points and grabbed nine rebounds. No other Michigan State player reached double figures. 

And in Big Ten games, that's kind of been the way things worked for the Spartans. Bridges averages 15.8 points and 7.9 rebounds per game in league contests. Fellow freshman Nick Ward is averaging 13.0 points and 5.5 rebounds but is playing just 21 minutes per game in the conference.

Michigan State currently sits at No. 54 in Ken Pomeroy's advanced statistical ratings — just seven spots in front of Ohio State. The Spartans rank 42nd nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency (96.1 points per 100 possessions allowed) but are just 89th in adjusted offensive efficiency (109.2 points per 100 possessions).

Turnovers have plagued Michigan State all season. The Spartans are averaging 14.8 per game in Big Ten play and their turnover margin of -3.2 ranks 13th in the league. 

Buckeye Breakdown

Ohio State was shorthanded in its last game, an 86-77 loss at Maryland on Saturday, as the Buckeyes played without point guard JaQuan Lyle, who left the team to return home to deal with a family emergency.

It was a valiant effort by an undermanned Ohio State team as the Buckeyes trailed by 14 at halftime and rallied to cut the deficit to five with just under three minutes to play. But ultimately, it wasn't enough as the Terps made a couple of clutch shots in the final minute to win. Ohio State suffered yet another close loss.

Now, the Buckeyes have their last chance to earn a road win worth anything in terms of an NCAA tournament resume.

"There is no margin for error so we’ve just got to go in these last five, six games like there is no margin. We have to win these ones," Tate said. "Hopefully, we do that and put ourselves in a good position for the Big Ten tournament." 

Lyle's status remains uncertain for Tuesday's game. He surprisingly returned to the team Monday afternoon but hadn't practiced in nearly a week so it's unclear how effective he would be if he does play.

He was quite productive in Ohio State's first game against Michigan State. Lyle scored a team-high 22 points and had six assists and four rebounds against the Spartans. Michigan State had no answer when he attacked the basket, but he also connected on five 3-pointers.

Without Lyle in the lineup, Marc Loving had arguably the best game of his career against Maryland with 24 points. Tate scored 20 and Trevor Thompson had his 10th double-double, but it was not enough for the shorthanded Buckeyes.

“I think everybody that played, starters and bench, I think we played as a team, I think we played as one unit. We played for each other and together," Tate said. "It’s just Maryland did everything they had to do to win. They made shots they had to make.

"We left it all out there on the floor. I feel like if we just build off this loss and continue to play like that, I think we’re going to win more ballgames in this stretch.”

How It Plays Out

Ohio State needs this game because of the quality road win aspect. Michigan State needs it to remain on the right side of the bubble.

Breslin Center is an awfully difficult place for opposing teams to get wins and the Buckeyes are no different. Under Matta, Ohio State is 4-7 at Michigan State with the last win coming back in the 2011-12 season.

KenPom gives Michigan State a 67 percent chance at victory Tuesday night and projects a five-point win for the Spartans. It should be another close game as it often is between these two teams.


Tim's prediction: Michigan State 74, Ohio State 68

33 Comments
View 33 Comments