Measuring the Accuracy of Recruiting Rankings: Is Thad Matta Getting the Most out of His Classes?

By Mike Young on October 9, 2014 at 4:10 pm
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The next time Ohio State loses a five-star prospect, remember just how early it is in that player's development. At the same time, history dictates he would've made a significant impact on the program.

Throughout his decade at Ohio State, Thad Matta secured commitments from nine five-star recruits. It's fair to say a few of them didn't live up to expectations, but they can still be used as recruiting tools. If they weren't drafted or haven't played in the NBA, they still had productive college careers.

In another sense, recruiting services were correct in their ratings for those five-star recruits. One doesn't develop a keen scouting eye from evaluating the best players on the court, however. The talent is in finding the underrated players and, for coaches, developing that talent. 

Below is a comprehensive list of every rated recruit Matta brought into the Ohio State basketball program. Using 247 Sports' composite ratings to determine the star values for each recruit and the position rankings from Rivals, Scout, 247 and ESPN, hindsight can be the judge of how these recruits developed, as well as how these recruiting services evaluated each recruit.

Five-Stars

Name Position Year Rivals Scout 247 Composite ESPN
Mike Conley PG 2006 3 4    
Daequan Cook SG 2006 3 2    
Greg Oden C 2006 1 1 1  
Kosta Koufos C 2007 3 4 2 2
B.J. Mullens C 2008 1 1 1 2
William Buford SG 2008 4 3 3 4
Jared Sullinger C 2010 1 2 1 1
Deshaun Thomas PF 2010 7 6 5 3
D'Angelo Russell SG 2014   2 5 1

As we all know, 2006 was a monster year for Matta and the Buckeyes. Three five-star recruits led Ohio State to the national title game.

Out of high school, Conley – the fourth overall pick in the 2007 NBA draft – was ranked fourth at his position by Scout. Ty Lawson, No. 1 in his class, panned out, but the other two are not quite at Conley's level. Javaris Crittenton played a few years in the league but is currently facing murder and drug charges in Atlanta, while Sherron Collins had a solid college career at Kansas and is playing in the NBA D-League.

Koufos and Mullens had uninspiring freshmen seasons but played in the NBA last year. Buford is the only one on that list to neither be drafted by an NBA team nor play in the league. Still, as the third-highest scorer in Ohio State basketball history, he is far from a bust. 

Overall, Matta did his job by helping those five-star recruits achieve dreams of playing in professional leagues, and, for the most part, maximized the years he had with them. If anything, this list is a good omen for D'Angelo Russell's fledgling career. 

Four-stars

Name Position Year Rivals Scout 247 Composite ESPN
Jamar Butler PG 2004 14 20 3  
Matt Terwilliger PF 2004 27 22 6  
Sylvester Mayes SG 2005   33    
Othello Hunter PF 2006   2 (JUCO)    
David Lighty SF 2006 6 8    
Jon Diebler SG 2007 14 14 14 13
Dallas Lauderdale C 2007 11 18 8 13
Evan Turner SF 2007 13 16 11 7
Anthony Crater PG 2008   21 15 13
Walter Offut SG 2008 24 29 20 40
Aaron Craft PG 2010 28 19 19 26
Jordan Sibert SG 2010 7 14 8 25
Lenzelle Smith Jr. SG 2010 36 24 24 24
J.D. Weatherspoon PF 2010 28 37 23 (SF) 30 (SF)
LaQuinton Ross SF 2011 13 12 9 16
Shannon Scott PG 2011 12 6 7 6
Sam Thompson SF 2011 16 15 10 13
Amir Williams C 2011 10 5 4 4
Marc Loving PF 2013 17 16 15 13
Kam Williams SG 2013 21 22 23 13
Keita Bates-Diop SF 2014   7 8 6
Jae'Sean Tate SF 2014   13 14 8
Daniel Giddens* C 2015   13 8 12
Austin Grandstaff* SG 2015   13 11 13
A.J. Harris* PG 2015   8 13 12
Mickey Mitchell* PF 2015   20 16 26

He's not John Calipari at the recruiting-behemoth Kentucky program, nor has he landed many non-Ohio natives who are also five-star recruits. So, Matta stakes his reputation on the next wave – four-star yet still highly ranked prospects. 

This group includes several key role players in Final Four runs – Butler, Hunter, Lighty and Smith Jr. Two of Matta's best four-star recruits – Turner and Diebler – did not make it that far but still left legacies at the university. 

Obviously, Turner was a multiple National Player of the Year award winner in 2010 and went on to become the second overall pick in that year's draft. Recruits ranked ahead of him include Kyle Singler, Bill Walker, Chris Wright, Robbie Hummel and Dar Tucker. Diebler was, at one point, the best three-point marksman in the country but ranked behind James Harden, E'Twaun Moore, Chris Allen and Senario Hillman out of high school.

Craft leaves a somewhat complicated legacy as a college player, imperfect yet the embodiment of what Matta wants on the defensive end. For that, he is a fringe NBA prospect and was the focal point for multiple, deep runs in the NCAA Tournament.

This list also includes several transfers – Crater, Offut, Sibert and Weatherspoon – and one notable, non-impact player in Mayes. Otherwise, the rest are or still have the chance to be valuable contributors at the college level.

Three-stars

Name Position Year Rivals Scout 247 Composite ESPN
Je'Kel Foster SG 2004   48    
Jermyl Jackson-Wilson PF 2004   51    
Brayden Bell PF 2005   33    
Eric Wallace SF 2007 32 29   28
Trey McDonald PF 2011   18 46 14
Amadeo Della Valle PG 2012   28 (SG) 38 43 (SG)
Dave Bell C 2014     43 37

The current level of success within the OSU program makes three-star commits relatively rare, at least compared to Matta's first few years in Columbus.

Still, there are a few, with Foster being the most prominent member of Matta's early years. He scored 12.2 points per game and shot over 40-percent from three in the Buckeyes' first Big Ten title-winner under Matta.

Jackson-Wilson ended up at Colorado, Bell transferred to Utah State and Wallace went to two other universities. Della Valle also exited the program, becoming a professional player in his native Italy.

We don't yet have a grasp on what McDonald can contribute in his final season at Ohio State, but his summer performance leaves some promise. This group hasn't produced much, but hasn't really been asked to do so.

Unranked: 

  • P.J. Hill (2007, JUCO)
  • Jeremie Simmons (2008, JUCO)

* Denotes current commitments


The previous two seasons lacked a multitude of scorers, which explained some inconsistent offensive performances. Last year was particularly troublesome in that area, but the program appears to have improved on offense with the incoming crop of recruits. 

Overall, Matta has proven his ability to both recruit and develop, be it college role players or NBA-worthy talent.

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