Now exactly one week away from a College Football Playoff semifinal date with Clemson down in New Orleans, Ryan Day's squad is neck deep in preparations with designs on giving Dabo Swinney a big old shitburger to eat.
It'll be a tall-task with Clemson seemingly clicking on all cylinders and more seasoned than the Buckeyes after having the opportunity to play a full regular season.
Will Justin Fields return to his normal self after a lackluster game against Northwestern in the Big Ten title? Can the running game continue its upward trajectory?
For answers to those queries and more, we welcome 11W staffers Dan Hope, Andrew Ellis and Andy Vance to this week's roundtable.
What’s wrong with Justin Fields? To any non-homer, he hasn’t been great against the two best teams Ohio State’s played so far. Can he right the ship versus Clemson? How much of his struggles last week were the result of Chris Olave’s absence?
Dan: Olave's absence definitely hurt Ohio State's passing offense against Northwestern, but I'm not sure that was a primary reason for Fields' struggles. He wasn't in sync with Garrett Wilson last weekend either, and Ohio State has other talented receivers, too. To me, Indiana gave other teams a blueprint for making Fields look human – blitzing him constantly and making him uncomfortable in the pocket – and I've never seen him look as uncomfortable in the pocket as he did against Northwestern. While he's typically been a great decision-maker for the Buckeyes, he made some uncharacteristically poor decisions throwing passes into coverage against both the Hoosiers and the Wildcats (though his first interception against Northwestern was really just a great play on a 50/50 ball by Northwestern safety Brandon Joseph), and he's also been locking in on his first read and staring down targets too often.
All of that said, I still believe Fields is one of the two most talented quarterbacks in all of college football, with the other being the quarterback he'll face off with the Sugar Bowl. There's absolutely reason for optimism that Fields will get back on track against Clemson, especially if Olave is back in the lineup. But I do think it is absolutely crucial for Fields, Ryan Day and Corey Dennis to determine the root of his struggles and put together a game plan that sets Fields up to succeed, because Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables will be dialing up plenty of blitzes next Friday.
Andrew: I think his struggles have been a result of his trying to do too much, zeroing in on the first read, and Chris Olave’s absence against Northwestern. I’m not sure if he’s trying to make huge plays to create blowouts to impress the committee, but there’s no denying that he’s played poorly in the Buckeyes’ two biggest games. I expect him to bounce back versus Clemson and put together a performance similar to the last one we saw against the Tigers. Here’s to hoping the ending is a bit different this time around.
Andy: You hear people talk about this concept of “rhythm” with an offense, and for all the chatter about Ohio State having an easy path to the playoffs by only playing 6 games, I think it’s pretty clear that Justin Fields would have benefited a great deal from playing more games. Particularly against Northwestern it just felt like he couldn’t get anything going, and not having his favorite target in Chris Olave was a big deal, too. Add to that the fact that his lack of interceptions from last season into the first three or four games this season was so hyped, you wonder if those picks started getting in his head and pricking his confidence a bit.
Olave being gone was clearly a big deal, but I will say I was surprised we didn’t see Garret Wilson go MVP-mode in this game. He had some drops he doesn’t typically have, and I think it goes back to that concept of rhythm and not having enough reps relative to a normal season.
With Fields struggling with or without Olave against the two toughest teams he’s faced this season, how comfortable are you that the running game can take over against an opponent like Clemson, if needed, after seeing what Trey Sermon and his offensive line did to Northwestern?
Andy: It’s hard to be super critical of the Buckeye rushing game after watching them run hog wild over Northwestern, but I keep asking myself if I’m looking at fool’s gold or not. Trey Sermon almost doubled his season rushing total in a single game, so I’m wondering why we didn’t see that type of production earlier in the year… was it the notion that splitting carries with Teague kept Sermon from getting into a groove, or is he just now hitting his stride… I’m not sure what to think. I’m curious to see if Sermon is first man up from now on, as one might assume, or if they go back to a rotation with Teague.
With a Rimington finalist anchoring what looks to be another exceptional offensive line (excepting Renaissance Man Harry Miller’s untimely brain farts), you’d sure like to see Ohio State impose its will on the ground. Going back to Zeke going off against Alabama in that glorious national title run, it’s clear that when Ohio State can run the ball at an elite level, good things happen. Urban Meyer always said this was a line-driven program, and I think getting back to those basics takes some pressure of Fields to feel like he has to do it all, and opens up some beautiful play action opportunities.
Andrew: A month ago I couldn’t have imagined I’d be saying this, but I actually do think the running game can take over against Clemson. Do I think it could be a performance similar to the Northwestern game? Absolutely not. But I have a lot of confidence in what the offensive line is doing right now in the ground game. The Tigers certainly present a different kind of challenge, but I do expect Ohio State to be able to run the ball. And if it really is working, please – for the love of god – don’t shy away from it.
Dan: I think Sermon and the offensive line have hit their stride and will continue to perform well in the CFP, but I also don't think you can expect to run the ball for 400 yards against Clemson like Ohio State did against Northwestern. The run game should be a big part of the game plan – and if it works, the coaches need to be more willing to commit to it than they were against Northwestern – but Ohio State is going to need to make plays through the air too to beat Clemson. The Tigers have only allowed 2.8 yards per carry this season, so they're going to make the Buckeyes fight for yardage on the ground.
The sports-world's most punchable face. (via Ken Ruinard / staff-Imagn Content Services, LLC)
If you ask Dabo, playing only six games is a golden ticket and sure, the fewer games you play, the less chance you have to lose. That said, a choppy six-game season also has its disadvantages. Where do you land on this one? Did Ohio State get a break by playing only six games or is it a hindrance now that they’re in the Playoff?
Dan: I personally believe Ohio State enters the playoff at a disadvantage because it played fewer games. I'm not sure Ohio State has yet played at the level it will need to play to beat Clemson, and I think the shortened and disjointed schedule played a part in that, as the Buckeyes have played just three games in the last six weeks. Meanwhile, Clemson has hit its stride over its last three games. Sure, Ohio State might be physically fresher, but it's harder to improve in practice than it is playing actual games. I think Ohio State would have gladly taken on more wear and tear to play more games this season, and I think Clemson will have an advantage because of its additional game experience.
Andy: I’m on record as saying Dabo Swinney is either the worst person in college football, or really, really wants to be the worst person in college football. He is the biggest villain in the sport, and like the most despicable villains, the smarmy bastard actually thinks he’s the hero in the story. If Ohio State could beat a team by a hundred this season, I’d want it to be the Tigers every day of the week and twice on Sunday precisely because of this self-righteous sack of sanctimony.
And he’s got it all bass-ackwards, to boot: only playing six games is a huge detriment to this team. They’re having a mid-season letdown, because we’re playing what would be mid-October games in December. And the whole — here comes this word again — rhythm of the season is off-kilter, from games being scuttled due to COVID, the testing protocols, game prep… It’s been all over the board for these guys. These Southern teams and their more laissez-faire approach to the pandemic has been a huge benefit to those teams and players on that score, because they’ve been able to more or less follow a “normal” pattern from week to week, where Ohio State’s been start-stop-start-stop from the get-go.
Andrew: It really is a little bit of both. Kerry Coombs’ secondary could have gotten a lot more experience with more games and would be better prepared for the CFP. On the other hand, each and every game adds more wear and tear to the body and increases the risk of injury. We’ve seen that for Ohio State with a player like Cam Brown and Alabama lost one of its best players in Jaylen Waddle. If it were a team loaded with veterans, then I don’t think missing a few games would be as big of a hindrance. For Ohio State, I lean toward it being more of a disadvantage due to the inexperience in the defensive backfield.
Rank the four starting quarterbacks in the CFP as if you're the head coach and have just this year's playoff to win. What about the four head coaches and their collective staffs? You're the AD and have just this year's playoff to win.
Andrew: 1. Trevor Lawrence, 2. Justin Fields, 3. Mac Jones, 4. Ian Book for the quarterbacks. For the teams, 1. Alabama, 2. Clemson, 3. Ohio State, 4. Notre Dame.
I know Mac Jones has been putting up absurd numbers, but I’ve still got him slotted behind Lawrence and Fields. Book is a distant No. 4 for me even though he’s played quite well for the majority of the season. As for the coaches, this mostly comes down to experience. We all know what Nick Saban has done and he’s got Steve Sarkisian running the offense with Pete Golding doing so on the other side of the ball. Dabo still has Brent Venables who seemingly never has any interest in any other jobs. I love the Ohio State staff, but Kerry Coombs still has plenty to prove as a defensive coordinator.
Dan: Quarterbacks: 1. Trevor Lawrence 2. Justin Fields 3. Mac Jones 4. Ian Book
I'm starting with the quarterback who has already proven he can win in the playoff, as Lawrence has already won three CFP games including a national championship game. Jones has arguably been college football's best quarterback this season, but he's never played in a CFP game, and like I said before, I believe Lawrence and Fields are the two most talented quarterbacks in college football. That said, I believe all of the top three quarterbacks are capable of leading their teams to a national championship, and the players around them will ultimately be the ones who make or break their teams when they play each other – I can't say the same for Book, who's had a good season but is the least talented quarterback of this group.
Head coaches: 1. Nick Saban 2. Dabo Swinney 3. Ryan Day 4. Brian Kelly
Saban is arguably the GOAT of college football coaches, and he's already won six national championships. Swinney has also won two, while neither Day nor Kelly has even won a single College Football Playoff game yet. That said, I am taking Day over Kelly as I believe he is a better coach and has at least coached the Buckeyes to a competitive CFP loss, whereas Kelly's Notre Dame teams have lost each of their two CFP and BCS National Championship Game appearances by 27 or 28 points.
Andy: If you had asked me this question prior to the B1GCG, I’d have given Fields the nod and not felt bad about it because I think he has a higher ceiling than does Clemson’s Sunshine. But given Fields’ struggles of late, I’d probably have to go with the hot hand and give Lawrence the start here. He’s incredibly consistent, and as Ohio State saw a year ago, can run the ball and get first downs as well as anybody. But it’s close between these two guys, any way you slice it.
And honestly I’m probably giving Alabama’s Mac Jones short shrift here. He’s a legit first-team All American, and a Heisman contender to boot. He leads the nation in completion percentage and yards per attempt, so I probably ought to rate him higher, but he’s also throwing to maybe the best wide receiver in the country in DeVonta Smith, so again, we’re splitting hairs between these three quarterbacks in my mind. And then there’s Ian Book, who is certainly a fine quarterback, but wouldn’t be a guy I’d start over the other three in this playoff field.
Head coaches and staff to me is a pretty clear No. 1 in Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide. Saban is the best to ever do it at this level, and I hold him and Bill Belichick on the top rung of the football coaching profession, period. And as a staff, what Sark has done with Saban’s program offensively this season is a thing of beauty. I’d be hard pressed to see how you’d argue the other three coaches above the GOAT this season.
From there, I’ll happily wear my scarlet-colored glasses and go with Ryan Day second. He’s a player’s coach who seems to get the best out of his men, and is clearly one of the most-gifted offensive minds in the business. I’ll give him a mulligan for some questionable play calling at times in the B1GCG. Looking at the rest of his staff, you have to love what Kevin Wilson adds to the program in terms of that offensive brilliance, and Brian Hartline in my mind is the best assistant coach in the country right now; I hold living legend Larry Johnson in that same regard. Where I have concerns with the Ohio State staff is on the back end of the defense, with Kerry Coombs at DC. I’m not ready to throw one of my favorite Ohio State coaches of all time under the bus just yet, because I do think there are some personnel concerns given the amount of talent Ohio State lost from last year, but this team would clearly love to have Jeff Hafley calling the defense again.
And then it comes to the guy I already said is maybe the worst person in the sport versus a coach who is equally detestable in Brian Kelly. These two men have very few redeeming qualities as humans, and I think Swinney is clearly the better coach, so I’d put him in the third slot if nothing else because Brent Venables is just about as good as it gets running a defense.
Did the CFP committee get the final four right with both the teams and the seeding? I know some were clamoring for a different No. 4 seed but I think they made the right call. Where do you stand? Beyond the top four, what stood out the most in the top-10?
Andy: They got the top three right for sure, but I’m in the camp that says Notre Dame should have been the first team out given how they got their butts handed to them in the ACC title game. I get that they’re 9-1 with a win over the No. 2 team in the country, but a loss is a loss and this is the year we should have had the brass to put an undefeated G5 team in the playoff. Cincinnati has every right to feel bitter and vindictive after the way this committee treated them over the final weeks of the season. It was shameful, and frankly indefensible. At the very least, they should have been ranked No. 5 in the country given their body of work this year.
Likewise I think Indiana got hosed. They put 8-2 Oklahoma at No. 6 to throw the Big XII a bone and that’s fine, but having 8-3 Iowa State ahead of a Hoosier team with only one loss to the No. 3 team in the country is dumb, dumb, dumb. Yes, the Cyclones beat Oklahoma and Texas in the same season for the first time ever, but they also have, and this is a big deal, three losses. Also, the annual fellating of the SEC looks particularly egregious when you have Florida ahead of Cincinnati and Georgia also in the Top 10.
Dan: While I personally would have liked to see Cincinnati get a shot as an undefeated conference champion, I do believe the committee made the right call in selecting the four teams who are most capable of winning in the College Football Playoff. I don't think Notre Dame will beat Alabama, but I also don't think there's any team that was left out of the CFP that was likely to come close to beating the Crimson Tide. I do think it's pretty silly that 3-loss Florida finished ahead of Cincinnati, and that 3-loss Iowa State finished ahead of Indiana, and that Coastal Carolina finished 12th as one of only two 11-0 teams in the country, but I don't think any of those teams would have made a difference in the battle for a national championship – though I would like to see a playoff expansion that gives more teams a shot.
Andrew: I think Notre Dame’s most recent effort against Clemson was more of the “real” Notre Dame while the Nov. 7 performance was more of an aberration. That being said, I do think the Irish deserved the No. 4 spot over the Aggies or anyone else for that matter. The seeding was fair, but the top-10 had some issues. Most notably I have no idea how an undefeated 8-0 Cincinnati team is still ranked behind both Oklahoma and three-loss Florida. I don’t necessarily think the Bearcats would beat either one of them, but I’d have Luke Fickell’s crew at No. 5 or 6 in my personal rankings.
