I've seen some amount of concern about the "Vegas Line" as it seems to have moved a tad bit in TTUN's favor, and that's fine, but I wanted to see exactly how predictive this line has actually been since the beginning of the Meyer years. In the chart below, I've given the spread at game time, the actual result, and OSU's over/under performance during that time.

I bolded the Harbaugh years, just to draw special attention to those.

As you can see, Vegas has been REALLY good (within 3 points) 3 times in the last 8 years. Now let's look at the Harbaugh years--2 times in the 5 years we've played, they've almost nailed the spread, but...look at the others. The line so broadly missed that it's almost laughable.

Since Harbaugh has been part of this rivalry, the average performance of Ohio State over the spread has been +14.9 points. In games in Ann Arbor under Harbaugh, Ohio State averages +15.5 points over the spread.

More simply, Vegas has wildly missed 60% of the time in this rivalry since Harbaugh has started. I mean, we're looking at this as essentially Vegas being a coin-toss as to whether or not the spread is accurate.

What I'm trying to say here is--there seems to be an inordinate amount of concern given to something that's actually performed worse than a coin toss would have the last 5 years. I mean, put another way, based on past performance, Ohio State is more likely to win by 21 than win by "only" 7-7.5. 

Vegas lines are certainly a data point, and obviously since there's money involved, it probably is an important data point, but really--I guess, it shouldn't receive an outsized importance just because "it's Vegas".