The AP rankings of college football teams have become meaningless. So let's get real and look at some football ratings that will be similar to those used by the playoff selection committee. How about the F/+ rating? It's a combination of two sophisticated rating systems, the Friemau FEI and the Connelly S&P+, that has been calculated since 2009.
In the combined F/+ calculations, #1 Clemson is rated very highly at 70%, followed by #2 Michgan and #3 Alabama at 53% and 52%. Note these two teams are rated highly in spite of having lost games, like the Buckeyes last year.
Then there are five teams rated at 47% to 48%, including Ohio State at #8. Why is an undefeated Ohio State rated lower than the #1 rank by the AP pollsters? So low in fact that they will not get into the playoffs?
| team | record | f/+% | F/+ | S&P+ | FEI | GE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson | 7-0 | 70% | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Michigan | 5-2 | 53% | 2 | 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Alabama | 7-1 | 52% | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 |
| Louisiana State | 7-0 | 48% | 4 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| Baylor | 7-0 | 48% | 5 | 3 | 13 | 1 |
| Notre Dame | 6-1 | 47% | 6 | 8 | 3 | 17 |
| Oklahoma | 6-1 | 47% | 7 | 6 | 6 | 10 |
| Ohio State | 8-0 | 47% | 8 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| Stanford | 6-1 | 44% | 9 | 14 | 2 | 5 |
| Southern California | 4-3 | 42% | 10 | 12 | 8 | 12 |
| Iowa | 7-0 | 40% | 11 | 16 | 11 | 21 |
| Florida | 6-1 | 38% | 12 | 18 | 10 | 26 |
| Texas Christian | 7-0 | 37% | 13 | 9 | 20 | 18 |
| Utah | 6-1 | 35% | 14 | 21 | 12 | 30 |
Ohio State is rated lower mainly due to a #9 rating by FEI. But why? Especially since a main input into the FEI is game efficiency (GE), where Ohio State, as shown above, is rated highly at #4. The difference is due to the fact that the FEI, unlike the S&P+, is also looking into the future at the expected wins, where their algorithm is predicting that Ohio State will only win 2.9 of the last 4 games.
So there's no real reason for worry. Ohio State is currently rated with a GE at #4, and if they win out over the two Michigan teams, then they will be rated #4, and probably even higher, and will easily get into the playoffs.
See more detailed F/+ tables at: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/fplus
