Three weeks ago I thought Ohio State's chances stood roughly a 5-10% shot given the road the Buckeyes had to travel. As of now, I believe that it the chances are now very real, however it will still be somewhat of a long shot to make the top 4. At any rate, the scenarios which are ABSOLUTELY necessary for Ohio State to make the top 4 are (winning out goes without saying):
Things Ohio State can control:
- Ohio State must and should beat Indiana & Michigan handily, along with Minnesota on the road and not have a big win hangover. The Gophers (7-2) who put up 51 pts against Iowa are likely to be ranked in the top 25 next week which benefits the Buckeyes when it comes to quality wins (not much but we'll take it).
Things Ohio State need to happen (optimal situation):
- Ohio State NEEDS Nebraska to win out the rest of their regular season games. If Nebraska can do so, an 11-1 Buckeye team will likely face a Nebraska team that will be ranked ~#10 in the country give or take a spot or two. This is the most ideal situation that the Buckeyes can be dealt is a game against a #10 Nebraska team and another chance to show the nation and committees again that this is a vastly different team that lost to VaTech. A one loss Buckeye team with 2 top ten wins (one on the road) will be the best chance to make the top 4. When the Huskers and Badgers collide, we want and should root for a Husker victory. A B1G championship game against a 2 loss Wisconsin team is not as good.
- One PAC 12, One Big12, and One SEC team should be locked for the first 3 seats. Ohio State will need Auburn to beat Alabama, Alabama (or Ole Miss) to beat Mississippi State. This will give the SEC only one 1-loss team which will provide Ohio State the best scenario for an open seat if they take care of business. However, none of these scenarios rule out a Florida State, Baylor, or TCU.
I think that's the best shot. I think it is still a stretch, but I'll be happy with a 12-1 Big Ten Championship if the optimal situation does not present itself.
What do you think?
Go Buckeyes
