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The Buckeyes' Playoff Chances are Better Than You Think

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Citrus's picture
October 7, 2014 at 11:16am
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I’ve written this elsewhere before but I think it important enough to make a forum topic. Yes, the Buckeyes will likely make the playoff if they win out. This isn’t far-fetched nor does it require a bunch of things outside the Buckeyes’ control to happen.

It is difficult to know how the playoff committee will chose. My logic uses a combination of traditional rankings and conference champions. It doesn't foreclose on the possibility on a non-conference winner making it. However, that only appears possible from two sources: Oregon (must win out); and a one loss SEC team. I'll address those situations below.

This year there are 4 slots. There will be 5 power conference champions and ND vying for those slots. Generally, for Ohio State to get in, either the ACC, PAC 12, or Big 12 need to produce a two loss champion and Notre Dame needs to lose.

Lets examine the chances of this occurring:

First let’s look at the ACC. Every team in the ACC has at least 2 losses except FSU, GT, and Louisville. Louisville lost to Virginia. GT and FSU are undefeated. It is highly unlikely GT runs the table. The only credible threat is FSU. FSU makes it in if it runs the table. However, it hasn’t looked great. It doesn’t have an opportunity for many quality wins. It’s possible that one late loss pushes it out.  In two weeks FSU takes on ND. If FSU wins, ND is likely out of the equation. If ND wins, FSU might not have enough left on their schedule to climb into the top 4. Probability is that FSU makes it. However, FSU has look far from the invincible behemoth they were last year. They've scraped by vs inferior opponents. Two losses or one bad loss that sends FSU tumbling down the polls is certainly a possibility.

ND has a favorable schedule remaining with the exception of FSU and @ USC to end the year. One loss likely puts them out. Two would be better. If FSU vs ND is a blowout one way or another, the Buckeyes benefit. The loser likely can't jump the Bucks.

Big 12 is currently wide open. It currently has two unbeaten teams. Those teams play each other this week. My prediction is that everyone ends up with at least two loses here. It’s difficult to predict the Big 12. Considering every team but one will have a loss after this weekend, it seems likely this conference will have a 2 loss champion (just like it did last year).

PAC 12 has one undefeated team: Arizona. However, Oregon and UCLA remain dangerous 1 loss teams. Luckily they play one another this weekend. I don’t think Zona is much to worry about. They’ll take their lumps eventually. Zona takes on USC this weekend, I don’t think they survive. The worry will be the winner of Oregon/ UCLA. There are plenty of chances for that team to lose. USC is in a great position to remove obstacles for the Buckeyes they take on: UCLA, Oregon, Arizona, and ND. The PAC 12 is primed to cannibalize itself and produce a 2 loss champion (just like it did last year).

The predictive "Who's In" done around sports media that show multiple SEC teams, just aren't looking at the schedule. The SEC, root for Auburn. If they win out, all other SEC contenders will have 2 losses. The losses will be late and not easy to recover from. All of the teams with a shot in the SEC are in the east. They all play one another. This weekend, four of them take on one another. It is possible for the SEC to put in 2 teams but unlikely, 3 is impossible (unless 3 loss teams make it – which won’t happen).

The B1G. You are familiar with the B1G scenarios but I wanted to point out a few things that are going to make it highly unlikely any 2 loss team jumps Ohio State.

Most of the teams ranked ahead of MSU play each other before Nov 8. MSU is 9. By Nov 8, it will be at least 7 and likely top 5. Ohio State will be at least 12 and maybe top 10. This is based simply off all the teams that play one another ranked ahead of the two teams. Ohio State wins and likely moves very close to wherever MSU was. Then there are 3 weeks left and the conference championship. The icing would be Nebraska winning out. They’ll easily be top 15 and maybe top 10 if they have but one loss.  The Ohio State loss will be chalked up to losing a Heisman candidate and replacing an offensive line. The many night games Ohio State plays will help impress the public. JT Barrett is a freshman, if he continues his high level of play (big if) he becomes a bigger and bigger story as the year progresses. Point is, there will be positive chatter about the Buckeyes towards season’s end. The Ohio State loss will be the earliest loss of all contenders, don't discount the fact that early losses are better than late ones.

Keep in mind, the Buckeyes only need ND to lose and 1 of the (non SEC) conferences to produce a 2 loss champion. 2 of the conferences did so last year.  If that happens this year, the Buckeyes are certainly in even if ND wins out.
My "Who is In?" prediction: 

Auburn
Oklahoma
FSU
Ohio State

Thanks for reading. I'll update this in a week. Go Buckeyes!
 

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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