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Buckeye Basketball Rotation Stats, Analytics, Thoughts, Etc

+9 HS
bsk33's picture
January 2, 2024 at 8:22am
19 Comments

I feel like so much of the discussion of the team this year ends up being what Holtmann has done in the past, our previous opponents' shortcomings, the dread of the upcoming Big 10 schedule, etc.

I have no idea how this team is going to turn out results wise. And I feel like that topic gets discussed ad nauseam. But I do really like watching this team play and I thought an in depth assessment of the players so far might be interesting. If it turns into another "Fire Holtmann" comment section, so be it.

I just did the Top 8 in the rotation, though I definitely think Devin Royal could play a bigger role as the season goes. Taison Chatman is a much bigger wild card with all the injuries he has had, but it's a long season. Not ruling him out of a role, but I seriously doubt it happens any time soon.

1. Bruce Thornton- I am going to reference Evan Miya's player ratings on this post. He is an efficiency guru for college bball (poor man's Ken Pomeroy) and you can filter in by conference. There are 129 qualifying Big 10 players that have played enough possessions. Bruce is ranked 5th and one of the players in front of him is on indefinite suspension. His shooting efficiency numbers are roughly the same as last year when he was 77th out of 141 players. Obviously his usage and production has gone way up, but I have to think his defensive rating has improved quite a bit to be up 72 spots. Seems like his attitude never changes whether he is thriving on offense (Bama, Minney, etc) or struggling mightily (UCLA, WVU). Even in those UCLA and WVU games, he made huge plays/shots in crunch time. Love that he is our PG and captain.

2. Roddy Gayle is 16th in Miya's Big 10 ratings. He has hit double digit scoring games in 10 of 13 games. His TOs have obviously been an issue and he needs to stop picking up 2 fouls in the 1st half. But his playmaking has been a pleasant surprise with 4 games already of 5 assists or more. I know the competition will get consistently more difficult. But I think he has proven without a doubt that last year's BTT performance was not a fluke.

3. Jamison Battle is surprisingly 64th in Miya's ratings. Obviously defense is the main thing dragging him down. Current NBA players Brice Sensabaugh (47th out of 141) and Malaki Branham (40th out of 135) did not fare all that well for I am guessing the same reason. But I think Jamison could not be more of a better fit on offense. You cannot statistically measure the space he creates on offense and the burden he lifts off Roddy and Bruce when one of the two is struggling to score or on the bench. We probably aren't going to see much defensive improvement from a 5th year senior. I'm just hoping the staff can hide him a little better on that end. But he has scored double digits in 11 of 13, is shooting 42% on threes (knock on wood), and his rebounding and playmaking has been solid though there is room for a little improvement. Other than that missed corner 3 in Happy Valley (still stings), I think Jamison has been all I hoped him to be.

4-5. Zed Key and Felix Okpara- Listing these two together because I think they have complimented each other about as well as could be expected. Zed is never going to be great on defense and occasionally makes boneheaded plays. And Felix is never gonna be much of a threat to score in the post, at least not likely this year. But Zed is ranked 23rd and Felix 27th in Miya's Big 10 ratings. They combine to average 16 pts, 12.3 rebs, and 2.8 blocks in just under 40 mins. The one area I'd definitely like to see some improvement is free throw shooting: Key (69%) and Okpara (53%). But other than that, if they can keep close to this level of play against the always center oriented play in the BIG, I'll be happy. No Dickenson and Edey only once (in the regular season) helps.

6. Scotty Middleton- I know Freshmen, including Scotty, have been a bit disappointing. But he's 46th out of 129 players on Miya's rankings. Even while being on a current cold spell (1-7), he's shooting 39% on threes so far. Small sample size (11-28), but still impressive. His rebounding has been disappointing, but has shown some decent signs as a playmaker with 3 games of 3 assists each, including each of the last 2 games. Defense has been rock solid with his length being disruptive at times. His biggest problem, besides playing so upright, seems to be his tenativeness on offense. He has a really effective first step. But doesn't seem confident in what to do next: shoot the midrange jumper, take it all the way in, drive and kick, etc. I think he'll get better with that as the season progresses. It may be wishcasting, but I think we will see 4-5 double digit scoring games in the last 18, though he only has 1 so far. I'd love to see him eventually in a starting role playing 20-25 mins a game.

7. Dale Bonner- Another guy in a shooting slump (joining Scotty and Bruce) but is currently 41st in Miya's ratings. I feel like the shooting/scoring is going to be a rollercoaster ride all year. But Dale is a big key in the team playing with more pace which could come in handy against some of the more plodding Big 10 teams. I know we haven't seen much change in our typically slow pace so far, but I think there has been a little, and I know Holtmann wants to see more of it. Dale is also helpful in dealing with the full court press (major issue last year) and can at least help our starting guards out against one of our kryptonites, ultra quick guards. Bonner has been a solid and largely underrated pick up IMHO. Just hoping for ups than downs with his shooting/scoring.

8. Evan Mahaffey- Evan has the non surprisingly worst rating of our starters and only slightly edges out Devin Royal's rating with 88th out of 129. I still like the Mahaffey pick up for the program. His stats and efficiency ratings are pretty similar to Kyle Young's first two years here. KY was 104th out of 139 and 80th out of 134 on Miya's ratings before sky rocketing up the charts in his last 3 years. Not sure we will see that drastic of a trajectory if Evan stays for the long haul, but him being a role player plus similar to the upperclassmen versions of KY and Andre Wesson seems attainable. But as far as this year, I've seen enough where I would like to see Evan in more of a 10-15 min bench role and Scotty as a 20-25 min starter. I know you are sacrificing a little rebounding, but I think they are both pretty even as solid defenders with great length. And the offensive spacing you would have with a starting lineup including Bruce, Roddy, Jamison, and Scotty (currently shooting 38%, 41%, 42%, 39% from 3-knock on wood) would be pretty incredible. But I don't want to come off as an Evan hater. I think he brings value to the team. I just think our ceiling is lower with him as a 21.7 mpg starter. Yeah, Scotty hasn't come out of the gates like gangbusters, but I think he has a much better chance of raising our ceiling.

Sorry for the length if you made it this far. Go Bucks!

Mods can you delete the duplicate post from a couple mins earlier? Sorry about that.

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