I said last week that Notre Dame was must win. That was true. I also said that the Buckeyes would also lose that game. Unfortunately, that turned out to be true as well. It was close for a few quarters. But ultimately the Buckeyes crumbled. Again. This week, I feel very similarly to the way I did headed into the Notre Dame game.
For context, Matt Brown, aside from 2017, really has Ohio State figured out when it comes to the Denver’s offense versus the Buckeyes’ defense. Despite a three-year gap, only once in the past 4 games that were played has Ohio State held Denver below 10 goals. Predictably, Ohio State is 1-3 over that span.
The Buckeyes allowed 17 goals last year, and it will certainly be a challenge to not allow that many this year. Denver had a setback last week against Yale, but that was due to the absolutely mind-boggling 14-shot disparity between the two teams.
Yale barely shot better than 25% on the day, and only had 2 more shots on goal than Denver. This is a serious, loaded Denver team, that for once is playing championship-level defense. The offense is a bit underwhelming by their standards, but has an absolute killer on the offensive end to bail the team out.
JJ Sillstrop (#5) is Denver’s best player, highest scorer, and the man who will decide the ultimate outcome of Sunday’s game. Sillstrop raised eyebrows to start the year by scoring 5 straight goals to help Denver beat Johns Hopkins.
Sillstrop has 18 goals and 9 assists through 6 games. Noah Manning (#7) is a step behind with 13 goals and 6 assists, while teammate Michael Lampert (#2) is tied with 8 goals and 11 assists.
As an offense, Denver is tremendous in their passing and actions. The Pioneers have assisted on 60% of the 85 goals they’ve scored this season. Denver hasn’t scheduled cupcakes, either.
Only Yale, a top 10 team, has beaten the Pioneers this season. And no team has kept the Pios below 11 goals. This will be a tall, tall task for the Buckeyes, with Caleb Fyock needing to stand very tall in order for Ohio State to have a prayer.
What gives me slight hope is that, as good as Sillstrop is, Denver still isn’t quite as loaded defensively as Notre Dame was. But that hope is very, very slight.
The Pioneers are still playing very well on defense. Teams are only getting 56% of their shots on goal this season, which is very low. Even though Yale had 14 more shots than Denver last game, the Bulldogs had fewer than 50% of those shots land on target (26).
That’s really bad. And, as we have seen, Ohio State really doesn’t have the ability to get shots on target. Against anyone.
Denver will start Jimmy Freehill (#15), Jack DiBenedetto (#31), and Adam Hangland (#41) down at close defense.
Freehill is the least experienced as a junior, while DiBenedetto and Hangland are all graduate students. This is a hardened group that has seen a lot, is big, skilled, and honed by facing some elite offensive players over the years. The Buckeyes are going to struggle down low. Just expect it.
In goal, Denver has Malcolm Kleban (#53), who hasn’t been a monster back there by any stretch. With a save percentage of .480, Kleban is likely the weakest link for Denver, though the men in front of him are playing well enough that he doesn’t have to be an All-American. Still, if Ohio State can get shots on cage, they can score. It’s a really big if, however.
At faceoff, the Pios are still exceptional. Winning 58% of the time, Denver is up there with the top teams in the country. Alec Stathakis (#37) is as dominant as ever, winning almost 59% of the draws he takes.
Unless Tommy Burke was rested, Jack Oldman has taken over the starting gig at faceoff. His second start would come against one of the best faceoff men in the country, and that’s a big ask. Oldman was adequate in previous stints at the dot, so he’Il need to advance pretty quick to keep up with Stathakis.
On special teams, Matt Brown is directing a monster. Denver scores literally half the time on Man Up, and is holding teams under 10% on Man Down. That’s absolutely ludicrous.
At that rate, I would consider transitioning to a zone all the time, if I were him. But I’m not a DI coach. Regardless, Ohio State is going to need to be very, very disciplined to have a prayer here.
Overall, the more I review the games, look at the numbers, and see trends, the more I feel pretty dour on the chances of Ohio State this game. In order to win, Ohio State is going to need to break every tendency they have had on offense. They’ll need to get a ton of shots on goal, shoot many more shots than Denver, and win at least 57% of the faceoffs here. That hasn’t happened against any good team yet.
And make no mistake, Denver is a good team. I want to believe. But I just can’t with this year’s team.
Final prediction: Denver 12, Ohio State 7.
Go Bucks!
Game is St. Patrick’s Day, noon, on BTN+.
