Interesting that the top 3 quarterback prospects for next years draft Geoff, Hackenberg and Cook led their teams to a combined 12-13 record conference record (7 wins came from Cook)
This led me to check out why pocket passers are dwindling down in college football
Lets start with the top 2014 qb's allen, grier, chryst, and bateman. Allen is the only person that might ever start for their respected colleges. Grier hasn't exactly blown out the competition this spring as talk of a walk on dominating has emerged, I might have been a little hard on Chryst as he still has a chance, Bateman played wr during the spring for Bama. 2013 Browne, Hackenberg, Shane Morris, Cooper Bateman, Kevin Olsen. Browne I expect to start at USC next year though nothing is given, Hackenberg the jury is still out after his abysmal sophomore year, Morris ehh....., Bateman played some WR at Bama , and Olsen lost the job to Kaaya who was a freshman last year.
2012 = Keil, Kline, Magnum, Brewer, Voytik. I know Keil but the rest nope, I know the ship might have sailed with Kline because Geoff is starting and is a year younger.
So those are the top 5 pro qb's rated by 247 so from that list you are probably going to hit 1 out of 5 of the top pro qb's. Dual threat's on the other hand 247 is having a higher hit rate with, this year top 2 qb's were DT's out of high school.
In the case of DT's
2012 = Winston, Cyer Miles, Chad Kelly, Mauk, Tonny Armstrong. Winston was the number 1 pick, cyer miles retired due to injury though last year he threw 17 touchdowns to 4 interceptions . Chad Kelly should start next year, if he doesn't Kinkade who also was a DT would start, Mauk is alright and this should be armstrong's 3rd year starting.
2013 = Marshall, Woulard, JT Barett, Bailey, Zaire. Marshall converted to WR he was never a qb to start with, for Woulard he transferred, we all know JT, Bailey didn't pan out, and Zaire is starting for Notre Dame next year.
2014 = Watson, Herrard, Hansen, Harris, Mahalak. Watson is going to set tons of record when its all said and done, Heard should beat out Swoopes, Hansen might have to wait a little, Harris could beat out Jennings for the starting job he played sparringly last year, I don't know or think Mahalak is ever going to start for oregon.
By the way Golson, Hundley, Bridgewater, and Braxton miller where top 5 DT's in 2011, while Lemay, Brissett, Wittek, Kessler and David where top 5 PPs.
I would take the DT over the PP, you are looking at a 3/5 or higher hit rate for them. Plus for the past 4 years an average of 16 of the top 20 teams in the nation have used DTs, and since Bama last won the NC all the other qb's have been DT. If you want your guy to be the number 1 pick recruit a pp, if you want to win games recruit a DT. To prove this I did even more research look at the top teams for the past two years.
Look at the top teams of 2014 and their qbs by the way I looked at their 247 profiles to see how they were ranked.
All teams in the 2015 playoffs had Dual threat's out of high school, Ohio State, Oregon, Florida State (Yes winston was a DT out of high school) and Alabama
2014
Ohio State - Dual Threat
Oregon - Dual Threat
TCU-DT
Alabama-DT
Michigan State-PP
Florida State-DT
Baylor - Neither
Georgia Tech -DT
Georgia- PP
Ucla-DT
2013
Florida State - DT
Auburn - DT
Michigan State - PP
South Carolina - DT
Missouri - DT
Oklahoma-DT
Clemson-DT
Alabama-PP
ORegon-DT
Ohio State-DT
2012
Alabama-PP
Oregon-DT
Notre Dame-DT
Georgia-PP
Stanford-PP
Texas a&m-DT
South Carolina-DT
Florida State-DT
Clemson-DT
Florida-DT
Kansas State-DT
LSU-PP
Louisville-DT
Boise State-DT
Oklahoma-PP
Northwestern-PP
Utah State-DT
Texas-Dt
Oregon State-PP
Vanderbilt-PP
Cincinati-DT
Nebraska-DT
Northern Ilinois-DT
Tulsa - DT
Thing is I think it's easier to win with them Auburn won 8 games with a cb playing qb, more games than the qb expected to go number one next year, that cb also threw 2 more touchdowns and 9 less interceptions than Hackenberg.
You can also say the NFL is drafting more dual threats, in 2012 3 of the top 6 qb's where dual threats RG3, Tannehill, and Wilson 2 of them were the 3 best qb's out of that year with Luck, in 2013 top 2 qb's where Dual Threats, in 2014 3 of top 6 qb's also dual threats, 2015 top 2 picks where dual threat's out of high school with 4 of the only 6 qb's drafted being dual threats. now I know the struggle somewhat in the nfl but its interesting that the nfl still isn't shying away from them and when the Brady's, Manning's, Brees and Rivers are gone the Russell Wilson's, Andrew Lucks, Cam Newton's, Teddy Bridgewater's are the next wave of those qb's who move.
So thoughts?
Is it possible that the a scarcity of good pocket passers is coming some day?
