Monday's Poll Watch returns with a glimpse into the peculiarities of the AP Top 25 ballots and ballot voter data. We scan these ballots to look for interesting patterns and what they may say about the college football landscape as the season progresses.
Washington's Big Win
Last week's "Top Ten Throwdown" produced at least one surprising result. Washington routed Stanford to announce that it's back in the graces of the college football elite for the first time since 2000. This is quite a turnaround for a program embarrassed by Rick Neuheisel, mismanaged by Keith Gilbertson, napalmed by Tyrone Willingham, and, more recently, guided into stretch after stretch of three-game losing streaks under Steve Sarkisian this century.
No other team controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 quite like Washington. Most of its challenging games this season are at home. It's the last unbeaten in the league. The team we thought would be its next closest challenger, Oregon, already has two conference losses. That made Stanford's back door route into the Pac-12 Championship Game that much more difficult.
Washington as the new AP No. 5 also means its nominally a national championship aspirant for the first time since the 1991 squad that clowned every team it played, most prominently Desmond Howard's Michigan Wolverines in the Rose Bowl. While the Huskies are the big winners from last week, not many voters have Washington ranked that high. Its highest vote is No. 4, which it got on six different ballots. It has 18 No. 5 votes. It ranks no lower than No. 8 on any ballot. Those votes came from Joe Dubin (WSMV-TV), Tom Murphy (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette), and the ever mercurial Jon Wilner (Mercury News).
Where Did Louisville's No. 1 Votes Go?
Louisville lost Saturday night in Clemson, but did not lose big. It fell just four spots from No. 3 to No. 7. It did, however, lose its six No. 1 votes.
Only one of those went to Ohio State and none went to Michigan. I thought both would stand to benefit the most from a Louisville loss, especially Michigan. However, Michigan still has just the one No. 1 vote from Scott Wolf (Los Angeles Daily News). Wolf had Michigan at No. 1 in his pre-season poll and, to its credit, Michigan has not given him much a reason to give that No. 1 to another program.
| Voter | Affiliation | Week 5 No. 1 | Week 6 No. 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brett McMurphy | ESPN | Louisville | Alabama |
| Ed Daigneault | Republican-American | Louisville | Alabama |
| Ed Johnson | Albuquerque Journal | Louisville | Clemson |
| Jimmy Burch | Fort Worth Star-Telegram | Louisville | Alabama |
| Joey Knight | Tampa Bay Times | Louisville | Alabama |
| Josh Kendall | The State | Louisville | Ohio State |
Alabama picked up four of Louisville's No. 1 votes. Clemson, perhaps understandably, acquired Ed Johnson's No. 1 vote after it beat his previous No. 1. Only Josh Kendall switched his No.1 from Louisville to Ohio State.
Ohio State, however, did pick up another No. 1 vote this week. That came from Bill Landis (Plain Dealer). Landis had Alabama at No. 1 last week before switching it to Ohio State.
Louisville and Wisconsin: Down, but Not Out
Both Louisville and Wisconsin dropped close decisions on the road, losing their games by a touchdown margin each. Wisconsin's stingy defense and Louisville's valiant third-quarter rally are why neither fell that far in the rankings. Louisville slid from No. 3 to No. 7 and lost just 249 points. Wisconsin fell from No. 8 to No. 11 and lost just 202 points.
Some of the high votes for each are quite high, perhaps even unrealistic. Louisville has five No. 4 votes, nominally a playoff participant in the eyes of Brett McMurphy, Ed Johnson, John Clay (Lexington Herald-Leader), Jon Wilner, and Michael Lev (Arizona Daily Star). Its two worst votes are No. 12 votes from both Keith Sargeant (Nj.com) and Pat Caputo (The Oakland Press).
Wisconsin has two No. 8 votes this week (Andy Greder, Josh Kendall) and even a No. 7 vote from Jon Wilner. Its lowest votes are three No. 15s from Garry Smits (Florida Times-Union), Jonny Miller (WBZ NewsRadio 1030), and Kirk Bohls (Austin American-Statesman).
Both have tough games ahead. Louisville travels to Houston and Wisconsin will have to address the Ohio State problem on its schedule. However, the playoff is firmly within reach for both at the moment.
Other Peculiar Observations
- Jon Wilner's ballot is a masterpiece again this week. One-loss Louisville is No. 4 while Alabama is No. 5. 3-2 Oklahoma is No. 12. UCLA is his No. 14. Wilner is responsible for 12 of UCLA's 56 points in the AP Poll this week.
- Guys, Miami is back in the top ten. Prior to this week, the Hurricanes had a combined five weeks in the AP top ten over the past ten seasons. It's having its best season since 2005.
- Scott Wolf is responsible for Indiana's three points in the AP Poll this week. He has the Hoosiers at No. 23.
- Colorado is suddenly the team to beat in the Pac-12 South. The 4-1 Buffaloes are ranked as high as No. 14 (Nathan Deen, Sam McKewon). It appears in the AP Poll for the first time since 2005.
