Here's What We Thought

By Ramzy Nasrallah on December 12, 2011 at 2:00p
30 Comments

The regular season that took so long to arrive has finally ended.

Back in August the Eleven Warriors staff got together to fling 2011W predictions at each other. As you will see below, prognostication isn't what a typical corporate talent review would refer to as a core competency for Team 11W.

He said, "Men of Action." We thought that meant, "at least nine wins."

We had high hopes for the 2011. You had high hopes. The spring and summer of Tatgate refused to end and we convinced ourselves that if we could just get to football season, everything would be all right.

Luke Fickell, his best buddy from college and the rest of his fellow assistants would simply slide over one place on the org chart and make everything work as it had for the past decade.

Maybe Tressel's absence and the turmoil from all of the real and fabricated scandals would cost the Buckeyes a game or two. Optimism is a drug; you can overdose, and we obviously did.

Below are the 11W staff's predictions for the 2011W season from August. As you'll see, on the big ticket items, we were...off. You wish we were right. We do too. *sigh*

But we weren't completely stupid, and that's something we hope to build on for our 2012 preview when we'll fight every urge to predict that Urban Meyer's offense will not be held under 70 once. That's called perspective.

2011W final scorecard: PFFFFFFT

  Alex Chris DJ Jason Joe Johnny Luke Ramzy Sarah ACTUAL
Ohio State's 2011 record: 9-3 10-2 11-1 9-3 10-2 9-3 8-4 9-3 9-3 6-6

This year's team had been expected to trot to the B1G championship game in Indianapolis, and then Tatgate happened. Most of the staff saw Tressel's firesigtirement costing the Buckeyes anywhere from two to three wins, with DJ being the most optimistic and Luke turning the wayback machine to 2004. At two full games off the gruesome reality, even Luke was way off.

The Miami game was a lost cause; the Buckeyes were at their absolute worst that night and did not look competent for a whole quarter.

The other five losses came by a combined 25 points and Ohio State could have won any or all of them had a couple of plays gone the other direction. At the same time, Toledo, Illinois and Wisconsin could have just as easily gone south for the winning team.

At risk of channeling former Indiana coach Bill Lynch (who famously suggested that IU was "only 12 plays away from playing in a bowl game") the Buckeyes were at least that many plays away from changing the complexion of their season.

That's too many plays for a team that failed too many times to make them.

11W COMPOSITE PREDICTION: 9-3. 

ACTUAL: 6-6.


BOWL DESTINATION:

  Alex Chris DJ Jason Joe Johnny Luke Ramzy Sarah ACTUAL
OSU Bowl Destination Capital One Sugar Rose Capital One Fiesta Capital One Gator Capital One Capital One Gator

Since we went 0-fer in the season record, it only makes sense with the B1G's tie-ins that our bowl predictions were laughably inaccurate as well. Luke wins for having the Buckeyes in the Gator Bowl, albeit with a far more palatable 8-4 record.

Note that the Gator is the Big Ten's fourth-place bowl tie-in, and that Buckeyes are going despite finishing tied for eighth place. Ugh, that sentence sucks so much.

11W COMPOSITE PREDICTION: Capital One Bowl 

ACTUAL: Gator Bowl


B1G DIVISION CHAMPIONS

  Alex Chris DJ Jason Joe Johnny Luke Ramzy Sarah Actual
Leaders Champ Wisco Wisco Ohio State Wisco Wisco Wisco Wisco Wisco Wisco Wisco
Legends Champ Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska Nebraska MSU MSU MSU Nebraska MSU MSU

Wisconsin is almost the consensus pick to be most appreciative beneficiary of Tatgate, while Nebraska and Michigan State are the clear 1-2 in the Legends (I had to look this up) division. 

The 11W staff, like the wizards we sometimes are, saw the October 17 meeting between Wisconsin and Michigan State as the non-Ohio State B1G game of the year, and we were sort of in the ballpark. <-- not as much of backhanded compliment as it is a raspberry at ourselves

11W COMPOSITE PREDICTION: Wisconsin vs. Nebraska for the B1G title & Pasadena trip. 

ACTUAL: NAILED IT.


everybody GOT out of braxton miller's way, as expected

RIP DAVE PLAY: 9/8/01 - 11/26/11

Braxton was pre-ordained as Ohio State's starter back in 2008. Saying he'd be the starter in 2011 with only an elderly baseball player standing in his way wasn't exactly salient, but given the decision making of this coaching staff, it wasn't necessarily a dunk either.

Clearly we took that indecision into consideration. Had we asked ourselves how long it would have taken Ryan Shazier to see the field we probably would have missed that one by about five games.

We were as mystified when Miller was completely held out of the Toledo game as we were when Joe Bauserman came into the Nebraska game with a three-score lead and promptly began launching clock-stopping passes into the Memorial Stadium stands.

Once Joey B looked completely lost at the Miami beatdown - as the cameras caught him chuckling on the sideline in defeat - the prophesy was all but fulfilled:

  Alex Chris DJ Jason Joe Johnny Luke Ramzy Sarah Actual
Starter vs. Akron Miller Baus Baus Miller Baus Baus Baus Baus Baus Baus
vs. Nebraska Miller Miller Baus Miller Miller Miller Miller Miller Miller Miller
vs. Michigan Miller Miller Miller Miller Miller Miller Miller Miller Miller Miller

11W COMPOSITE PREDICTION: Bauserman sets the table for the future.  

ACTUAL: NAILED IT. AGAIN. /high fives


OFFENSIVE MVP

When Boom Herron returned from his suspension he made it appear as though he was going to reinvent the offense with his production as well as the mere threat of his production. Unfortunately, after starting with a bang, he got less and less effective, finishing his final regular season as a Buckeye with a whimper: A meager 37 yards on 15 carries.

Jordan Hall had his flashes, but they were exactly that and little else. Mike Brewster had a surprisingly underwhelming season; a preseason Rimington candidate, he ended up barely on the B1G's second team. Jake Stoneburner, like all of the tight ends before him in the Tressel era, was largely forgotten for most of the season.

DeVier Posey elevated the offense and made it abundantly clear just how much his presence was missed, but he played in two games. That leaves Miller - the team's leading passer, rusher and scorer - as the clear MVP of the offense.

  Alex Chris DJ Jason Joe Johnny Luke Ramzy Sarah Actual
Offensive MVP Herron Herron Herron Miller Brewster Hall Stoneburner Herron Hall Miller

11W COMPOSITE PREDICTION: Boom would come back to the rescue. 

ACTUAL: Jason is a great evaluator of talent. The rest of us...


defense: top 30 again, yet underwhelming

Tatgate's roster damage was largely confined to the setting-up-the-punt side of the ball, but the loss of Nate Williams unexpectedly crippled the Buckeyes' pass rush. The linebackers were thinner than expected and Tyler Moeller, though valiant in his return, wasn't his old self. On top of that, "Howard Island" wasn't the shutdown corner that his self-given nickname purports he is. There is still time.

The two best defenders this season were John Simon and Jonathan Hankins. The edge should go to Simon.

  Alex Chris DJ Jason Joe Johnny Luke Ramzy Sarah Actual
Defensive MVP Simon Sweat Orhian Johnson Moeller Moeller Moeller Nate Williams Howard Moeller Simon

11W COMPOSITE PREDICTION: A fitting end to Ty Moeller's 39-year college career. 

ACTUAL: Alex FTW. Everyone else FTL. Ramzy and DJ FTLOL


STILL wanted: YOUNG guys for braxton to throw to

Verlon Reed went down for the year. Posey missed ten games. T.Y. Williams has tennis racket hands and Philly Brown occasionally had seal flippers. Devin Smith had trouble getting open. Tight ends weren't pass-eligible (were they? debatable)

In hindsight this was a trick question: Ohio State threw for a total of 1489 yards. Western Michigan's Jordan White and Houston's Patrick Edwards each had more receiving yards by themselves than Ohio State had total passing yards. To lead Ohio State in receptions this year, you only needed 15 catches. That's not even two per game.

As Jim Bollman eschewed safe, short passes in favor of...whatever the hell that was for 11 games, we're confident this is one area of frustration that the next regime will soothe, quickly.

  Alex Chris DJ Jason Joe Johnny Luke Ramzy Sarah ACTUAL
2 WRs Who Emerge Reed and Smith Reed and Smith Reed and T.Y. Williams Reed and Stoney Reed and Brown Reed and Smith T.Y. Williams and Smith Reed and Smith Brown and Smith Nobody

11W COMPOSITE PREDICTION: Reed & Smith would give defenses nightmares.  

ACTUAL: Nightmares.


awwwwww isn't that cute you contributed right away

We were all right on the impact freshmen (Reed would have shined...well, it's all relative) but nobody saw Shazier coming. Miller was the safe pick, and it was the right pick:

  Alex Chris DJ Jason Joe Johnny Luke Ramzy Sarah ACTUAL
Top Freshman Miller Miller Reed (RS) Miller Miller Bennett Smith Miller Miller Miller

11W COMPOSITE PREDICTION: Four years of high school hype couldn't be wrong.  

ACTUAL: We can't wait to see him in a real, competently-run FBS-level offense


start engraving the trophy for most inspirational player

From the season preview:

The most important award named for the guy you should know more about is the only clean sweep of the season.  We all think it's going to be the guy not named Methuselah or Bauserman who has been around the longest.  He of the stapled cranium, the surgically re-attached pectoralis, the four fewer teeth as of this summer, the four Gold Pants and five championship rings (all still in his possession NO WAY OMG) and the proud manifestation of the model train jones that you've kept repressed for so many years.

If Tyler Moeller isn't this year's Bo Rein award winner, something amazing will have happened.  Anything short of another player assassinating the pissed off owly-looking Al Qaeda guy who took over for Osama in the south end zone during a live game after scoring a touchdown - and then flashing his bloody Nike Block O gloves at the camera amidst the deafening cheers while he's flagged for excessive celebration - is going to result in Moeller taking home the prize he richly deserves.

We'll have to wait until the awards banquet to confirm, but as inspiring as Miller and Simon were with their effort, what Moeller has endured transcends any play or game.

  Alex Chris DJ Jason Joe Johnny Luke Ramzy Sarah PROJECTED
Bo Rein Moeller Moeller Moeller Moeller Moeller Moeller Moeller Moeller Moeller Moeller

11W COMPOSITE PREDICTION: Moeller. 

ACTUAL: Ty already won it from 11W. The rest is details.


your 2011w ohio state most valuable player

How exactly does one choose an MVP for a 6-6 team that finished 107th in total offense and saw its defense shredded by Michigan for the first time in eight years? Based on results, this will be more symbolic - not unlike temporary captains - than based on merit.

Like Terrelle Pryor before him, Miller's natural ability prevented pitiful offensive playcalling from looking even worse than it was. His absence directly led to the Nebraska loss, he won the Wisconsin game, he was a botched PAT from winning the Purdue game and had the defense showed up at all, he would have been the clear MVP of the Michigan game despite some errant throws.

Even with the outgoing Nick Siciliano "coaching" him, Miller shined with his natural athleticism and his still-uncorrected throwing mechanics. Ohio State finished 107th in total offense in 2011. Look for at least a 50-spot improvement in 2012, largely on #5's back.

  Alex Chris DJ Jason Joe Johnny Luke Ramzy Sarah PROJECTED
Team MVP Simon Herron Herron Moeller Brewster Brewster Stoneburner Herron Brewster Miller

11W COMPOSITE PREDICTION: A senior leader from the offense. 

ACTUAL: The freshman who kept it from completely falling apart.

Finally, 11W sends heartfelt gratitude to Luke Fickell for gracefully handling a thankless job as a temporary program steward and unenviable crisis manager. His hair is still somehow dark, which in and of itself is either a miracle of genetics or the result of inner serenity we wish we possessed.

We'll leave you with our words of wisdom from August, below. No further comment is necessary. We're happy to see the Buckeyes play in a bowl game - in any bowl game - but we're also quite ready for the Urban era.

this season will be a success if:

Alex: Ohio State beats Michigan.

Chris: Miller wins the job and limits turnovers.

DJ: Ohio State wins the B1G and beats Michigan.

Jason: Ohio State wins every game it's favored to win.  This means Fickell is more Tressel than Cooper.

Joe: Miller makes good decisions with the ball.

Johnny: Leadership emerges on offense and defense and the team doesn't implode after an early loss.

Luke: Ohio State has a season that can make fans proud, provides invaluable experience to the future of the program, and lays the stage for the next era of OSU football.

Ramzy: The transition into Fickellball is seamless and uncomplicated.  Ohio State has to win in Ann Arbor by a comfortable margin, as the rosters are not close.

Sarah: This team eventually clicks like a Tressel team would.

THIs season will be a failure if:

Alex: Ohio State loses to Michigan.

Chris: No QB emerges, forcing a season-long rotation.

DJ: Losing to Brady Hoke.

Jason: Losing to Michigan or dropping five games.

Joe: QB unsettled throughout the season.

Johnny: November record is 2-2 or worse.

Luke: The pulse of the program in its current iteration is contingent on Jim Tressel as its heart valve so to speak.

Ramzy: Open tryouts at QB, RB and WR last into the Colorado game.

Sarah: Ohio State loses to Michigan.

30 Comments

Comments

DJ Byrnes's picture

LOL at me

Californian by birth, Marionaire by the Grace of President Warren G. Harding.

Scott's picture

That picture is clearly Photoshopped.

Class of 2008

Baroclinicity's picture

Not to split hairs, but I thought the MSU game was a lost cause as well, like the Miami game.  Panic mode was the only thing that saved us from being shut out.

chaoscrusader's picture

"Haynes leaves OSU for Arkansas' staff" what was Haynes recruiting area responsibility?
 

rkylet83's picture

I thought we would win 10 and actually if you take the miami and msu games out we were surely in position to do so. That said this team will be better next season and will have a new direction and purpose. Should be a fun season!

yrro's picture

Honestly, this team reminded me a lot of Iowa, in the years where they don't get lucky. Lots and lots of close losses.

We were reasonably within one or two plays in all but two games (Miami and MSU). A little bit more luck, one more defensive stop, a couple close misses on passes... this team wasn't good, but it was almost as close to 10-2 as it was to 6-6. Of course, it wasn't too far away from 4-8, either.

Doc's picture

Let's enjoy the bowl game for what it is.  Then erase this season from the mammory banks like an Etch-A-Sketch.

 

Here's to 2012! GO BUCKS!

"Say my name."

flipbuckeye's picture

Wait... what? lulz.

LadyBuck's picture

I don't think mammory glands work like that...

Run_Fido_Run's picture

Sometimes they do. If you spin the dials with enough skill and finesse, the discordant boundary lines simply melt away, and the Etch A Sketch shakes itself, shuddering from within.    

LadyBuck's picture

Please tell me you know what a mammory gland is. Please. 

SouthBayBuckeye's picture

FAAAAAIIIIIIIILLLL

 

oh wait, we got Urb. WIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIINNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Banned from ATO since June 3rd 2PMish PST

Bucksfan's picture

Nice job, Luke.  Your non-Ohio origins clearly trump home-grown Ohio homerist insanity.  There is a reason you're the Dan Patrick of 11W, and I'm definitely impressed at your Gator bowl pick.  It's as if you talk to Tebow God himself on a daily basis.

I do have to laugh at the "Season will be a failure if..." comments.  By all definitions, right?

It was definitely a rough one, but Ohio State always bounces back.  I don't feel as lousy as I thought I would (probably exercised most of my frustration during the actual games - I know my walls aren't too pleased being hit repeatedly by flying shoes and block-O hats).

Brax-to-the-Max Miller is my clear MVP.  He was responsible for the signature win against Madison.  He set a record with the longest TD run by an OSU QB ever.  EVER.  It is getting harder to break records like that.  But he's doing it AND breaking ankles at the same time.

The future is bright.  How can you not be excited about what's in store.

Luke's picture

I will make amends the next 6 seasons (and a movie) by making insanely homertastic picks due to my unrelenting crush on Urbz.

Bruce's picture

"11W COMPOSITE PREDICTION: Wisconsin vs. Nebraska for the B1G title & Pasadena trip.

ACTUAL: NAILED IT."

 

I could have sworn MSU was in the CCG. I don't think that that is "nailing it"

From the 2007 HBO special ---->http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iI7x_DDPcLo

Ramzy Nasrallah's picture

As much as I'd like to chalk it up to a c/p fail, it was actually a bad sarcastic jab at our predictive futility.

 

Bruce's picture

Wow, I totally missed that one.

And with me knowing your inclinations towards sarcasm. 

I got nothin'

Oops

From the 2007 HBO special ---->http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iI7x_DDPcLo

NC_Buckeye's picture

Luke, I'm going to have to pay more attention to your contributions. Pretty impressive insight especially the season success/failure part. 

BuddhaBuck's picture

Just another reason readers keep coming back for more 11W.

Can I get a prediction from the Staff for this question: Who will be the next HS recruit to verbal to tOSU? and how many ESPN/Scout/Rivals stars will he lose upon commitment?

Don't text while driving.

Alex's picture

Tommy Schutt and 0*....only because he's at a slower school in PSU already

BuddhaBuck's picture

Alex FTW!

Washington, Schutt, Pittman*, Spence*... Oh my!!!

Don't text while driving.

Nappy's picture

I think most of us would trade a 6-6 season and Gator Bowl appearance for 6 years with Urban at the helm.  I know this season didn't turn out like we had all hoped, but give credit to Fickell for keeping everyone together. 

Fan of bacon since 1981

Kalamazoo Steve's picture

Yup. Our down year is the Gator Bowl. Rods best year would have been the Gator Bowl.

poguemahone's picture

But we kicked Colorado's ASS

that made it all worth it 

jfunk's picture

One day after you guys run this the BIG blog on ESPN does pretty much the same thing. Coincidence???

Scotch: It may be too early to drink it, yes; but people it is never to early to think about it.