As mentioned in the Good Shizzy and the recent poll, Jim Tressel has recently said that
...he expects [Ohio State] to be a "25 to 35 passing team,"
Which is pretty hilarious, and I am mostly confident in telling you that this is very unlikely to happen. For a variety of reasons. Most notably, in the past five seasons (which include the Troy Smith "watch me do this ridiculous thing and be totally nonchalant about it" years), there have been ZERO seasons in which a Buckeye QB has averaged more than 25 passing attempt per game. The last group to do it over the course of one season was the 2004 team, which for the first pass happy half of the season was Tressel's absolute worst squad offensively. In addition, Pryor threw for approximately 160 yards per game last year, the lowest full season average since, well, the year before that, where he and Todd Boeckman combined to throw 150.2 per game. In fact, if you look at the Big Ten from last year, Ohio State was not just the worst passing team in terms of frequency throwing the ball, but averaged a full 20 yards less per game than the team occupying the number 10 slot, Illinois. There were of course many reasons for this (Purdue Harbor, Pryor's injury, etc.), but one thing is clear: if Ohio State is throwing the ball 30 to 35 times a game this season, something way, way more unprecedented than a QB throwing the ball a lot has happened with our offense. Which brings me to the title of this post. Jim Tressel's offensive philosophy has been, for nearly a decade as the coach of Ohio State, about balance. This has been the official story on the dude and the media's go to description when talking about us offensively. It is both the truth and a lie.
- In 2009, Ohio State passed for 2250 yards and rushed for 2547.
- In 2008, 1953 passing and 2502 rushing.
- In 2007, 2558 passing and 2560 rushing.
- In 2006, 2791 passing and 2208 rushing.
- In 2005, 2708 passing and 2360 rushing.
2007 is obviously especially astounding in terms of symmetry, but overall these are some incredibly even numbers that suggest that Jim Tressel's offenses are not the stone age, ball control, grind out the clock throwbacks they initially seem to be. But as astutely pointed out in an ESPN article by Bill Curry in 2003 (previewing the then hyped showdown between #4 ranked Ohio State and #10 ranked Purdue):
Listen carefully to commentary by stat-spouters and you will detect a robotic adherence to the term when very few actually understand it. There are a surprising number of subtle differences in virtually every coach's use of the term ["balance"]. For our purposes I will offer four definitions: 1. Balance is the even distribution of play calls, with half being running plays and half being passes. 2. Balance is the even distribution of productivity, with half the yards being generated by the running game and half by passing. 3. Balance is the use of a team's less emphasized dimension in a simplified fashion to set up the aspect that is preferred. ... 4. Balance is the capacity and willingness to run or throw the ball from anywhere, anytime, in any situation. Implicit in this definition is the ability to execute either phase of the game in all situations. This is the best form of balance for most teams, the most difficult to master and the hardest to defend.
Curry goes on to say that Tressel fits into definition 3, and he's absolutely right. Because despite all of that statistical balance listed above, in terms of actual playcalling those years are still skewed with a hard bent toward the ground game.
- In 2009, 64% of the plays were rushing plays.
- In 2008, 67%.
- In 2007, 63%.
- In 2006, 59%.
- In 2005, 63%.
What is interesting about this is that even during Peak Beanie and Peak Troy Smith years, these numbers stay relatively constant. Last year the Buckeyes averaged 68 plays a game. If Pryor is throwing the ball 30 to 35 times a game, that would mark for perhaps the first time in the entire Tressel regime that the passing game has supplanted the rushing game as the main focus of "balance," as Curry has defined it. In all honesty, I am extremely curious to see how this would play out. We certainly have the personnel for it, as both Saine and Herron have proven themselves to be capable pass catchers, and Stoneburner is sitting at TE with unquestionable raw talent. The real test, as intimated in the poll, is if Tressel will have the patience to deviate so far from his bread and butter. History suggests he won't, but recent history in the Rose Bowl (where only 57% of the plays were runs, many of them scrambles off of called passes) suggests... well, maybe. In any case, this could be a very interesting year, and the chaos might give us a chance to bust out one of my personal favorite OSU offense related pictures.
Comments
I like "undecided" also. Keep em guessing. Ultimately, whatever works for the skills, players and brains The Senator has at his disposal. I trust in his judgement.
if pryor has developed the way we hope [and the jump from 2nd year to 3rd year is typically the most dramatic] it would seem as though we could begin to slide into-not fully become-that 4th definition. i believe we will all be hard-pressed to see a true "mastering" of the passing game while tressel is the HC [and that's by no mean a slight to JT- it's quite obviously working very, very well] but TP at least offers the threat of run v. pass. it seems as though he will be more than capable to capitalize on teams crowding the box and when secondaries make mistakes. i'm not expecting a sam bradford/colt mccoy style passing of threading needles, but i certainly expect that TP will be a TRUE dual-threat QB this year which helps create better "balance". but 30-35 passes just seems out of hound for a JT-coached football team.
You give a nice rundown but, as Chris at Smart Football has mentioned, there's a better way of finding optimum balance. I won't go into the game theory (he does it better than I could anyway), but one theoretical balance point is the YPA for rushing (not including sacks) and passing (including sacks). With this in mind, the year:rushing:passing YPA's are
2009 : 5.06 : 6.09
2008 : 5.28 : 5.94
2007 : 5.04 : 6.96
2006 : 5.11 : 7.37
2005 : 5.06 : 8.12
2004 : 4.50 : 5.92
2003 : 3.90 : 6.68
2002 : 4.77 : 7.24
2001 : 4.53 : 6.28
This might surprise some, but the numbers appear to indicate that JT has found an optimal balance in these past few years: the net outcome of passing and rushing plays is very close to equal (and, when you factor in the premium on rushing due to lower incidence of turnovers, it's damn near perfect). Unless Pryor has improved enough in the offseason to improve the net outcomes of his passing (or the OL gives up fewer sacks - the past 2 years have been brutal on that front), there's not much to gain by passing more (assuming that our rushing won't decrease in effectiveness).
"watch me do this ridiculous thing and be totally nonchalant about it"
How'd you know what my Olde English belly tattoo says?
Tressel said he'd throw 25-35 times per game. It obviously means he expects to run 75 plays per game. Lots of 3 and outs on defense and quick strikes on offense.
Or not.
http://photo.the-ozone.net/det...
Dude is a beast.
I think you'll see no huddle. I'm thinking most of those 25 to 30 passes are of the short yardage type. How can you not want to throw to Boren and watch him crush some people.
Its not how much you pass, its when you pass. First down and second down pass plays force the defense to play honest.
This is how I interpreted it. It's less of a conscious pass-first approach, but simply a season where there are more opportunities to throw, both in bulk and situation. This is all provided that Pryor can finally win something on the field.
That's the hotness right there. Why isn't his shirt off?
Undecided...I love it!!
Excellent article.
Increasing passing attempts by a few will theoretically increase the total number of plays available, assuming the defense is at least as good as the past year. Which goes against everything I thought I knew about Tress, who always seemed to want to make the game as short as possible - run the play clock to 0, keep the ball between the tackles, keep the clock running as much as possible and hope to have the ball last (with a lead).
yes he is, who is he?
I agree with comments above that, if the offense really rolls this year, they'll get more total plays and hence more pass plays, and if they call more designed quick hitters and dumpoffs (i.e., extended running game), the passing numbers would creep up anyway.
But it could also be a bit of a put on. Throw the ball 40 times against Marshall, because you can, practing the passing game while hiding any new wrinkles in the run game, which will make it tougher for Miami to prepare. Whereas Miami's run game was mediocre last year, so the Hurricanse might have to reveal more of their run game tendencies in their tune up (opener).
I don't care how we get yards as long as we get them.
I'm fine with 25-35 total snaps where Pryor is the primary run/pass option. Whether those end up mostly throws or mostly runs should depend on what the defense is giving us.
John Simon
John Simon. My pick for the media designated "where did this guy come from award?" which just goes to show that most of them have no effin clue what they are talking about.
I don't expect it to change when it matters. Tress/Bollman are not from the Mike Leach school of thought. It's a good thing. I expect this year to be more exciting, but Tress is Tress when it counts.
The most astonishing thing about this article is that Purdue was actually ranked number 10 only 7 years ago!
Good article. I hope that the symmetry continues this year. The Bucks definitely have the weapons at RB and WR to keep defenses off balance.
Scout had him as a 5 star DT and Rivals was like "White defensive tackle from Ohio = 3 star"
WIN!!!
Some media.
http://espn.go.com/blog/bigten...
I agree with throwing more against Marshall. They need to use the opener to work out the kinks before the Canes come to town. Hopefully we can grab a comfortable lead quick and turn the second half into a glorified practice. Obviously we don't want to show too much but this could be a great opportunity to work on the throwing game against a live defense.
Buckeyes #2 in first Coaches' Poll.
I think you're totally right about the no-huddle. Think back to Pryor's drives in the spring game - the most successful one was the pass-happy no-huddle drive (his second, I think). I think this is what Tressel wants to do. Faster pace keeps defenses off-balance and opens up more high-percentage "short yardage" throws (Stoneburner, Boren), as well as highlighting opportunities to pick up big chunks with the ground game. The fact that our top two RBs, FB and top TE are great pass-catchers (and that our QB is an elusive runner) means we can bring the same personnel to the line over and over again and run drastically different plays. This team is built for hurry-up, and it plays into what Pryor came here for in the first place - to grow into an NFL QB.
@Tampa- you couldn't be more correct on both accounts. Throwing on first and second down is where we throw defenses off....and it was a shock that Tressel began to do that with regularity last year (hoping it continues). And yes, Pryor likes working in the no huddle offense. Yet something else Tressel must implore into the scheme to keep defenses honest.
scout always has much higher rankings for ohio kids (and usually OSU players from OOS) than rivals and ESPN. only exception I can think of is ESPN having Jamaal Berry as one of the top RBs and scout/rivals had him like 10-15 range.
I generally trust scout's rankings the most...the others are just SEC/Texas/USC biased and chencge the rankings to make them good
Bucks got 4 1st place votes as well.
and look how small the gallon of water looks??? whats his height weight now?
exactly...I expect we average 30 called pass plays where pryor can check the D and if he doesn't like it do a PA bootleg-run, or slip through the line on a draw at least 5 times a game
I know I am going to get a lot of hate from folks for this tiny bit of criticism but I dislike any description of a football game being related to a tragedy sufferedby many men and women in our nation. I didn't care for Dwayne Wade comparing losses of the heat to the World Trade centers being dropped and I am not thrilled about the Purdue loss being linked to Pearl Harbor. Maybe these feelings are seated deeply inside of me because of my time spent in the military or my love for the country (Notice I didn't say government) or my age? It was a great write up and I always enjoy this site. Please continue, I just wanted to throw something out there for consideration.
I think it's clever. I wouldn't think to remember Pearl Harbor unless 1) I'm in Hawaii 2) Anniversary Day and 3) Purdue Harbor.
His jug is full of the tears of crushed U fans in anticipation of when he de-arms Jacory Harris.
I get your point but Purdue Harbor is made in jest and the actual event of Pearl Harbor took place decades ago. DWade is a major doucher and 9/11 was only 9 years ago. And DWade is a major doucher in case you missed it the first time.
i thought he said 25-35 passing plays called a game, which some of those would lead to watch me do amazing things with my legs in a nonchalant way.
point to kule!
Dwade is a doucher, see fake band-aide thingy under his eye as fashion statement. wtf.
I can respect what you are saying. But I also think the boys at 11W have consistently shown a great deal of respect and admiration for the men and women in uniform, past and present. There is no intent of malice in the phrase and I think they deserve the benefit of the doubt.
no, that's what SHE said, AMIRITE?!?!?!
I do see a possibility of 25-35 passes per game because of all the options. For the first time in a long time we have 2 RB's who are very capable in Saine and possibly Berry and Herron that can catch passes. We have a fullback in Boren who can catch, a stud TE, 2 really good WR's and who knows who else may step up among newcomers and Washington. There is a chance to have 6 or 7 guys per play, that can not only catch a ball but get significant yards off of those catches made.
there's nothing nonchalant about what she did.... KEEPER
kyle* derpp to me
Isn't football patterned off of war? You have a who schemes the plays, as well as a general on the field, you have a line constantly moving and trying to gain ground. If anything it's fitting that a battle be used as a PUN, metaphor, similie, symbol, or representation of specific games. THat's just me though, I never understood the outcry of Kellen Winslow saying "I'm a soldier" either, because football is war. That's just me though.
I see what you are saying, but don't feel these guys are purposefully trying to offend anyone.
I too think football is also a lot like war, except without the thousands to millions of people being killed and/or otherwise dying. But, except for that detail, yeah.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
...Football cannot come soon enough. I just watched the above vid, proceeded to punt the cat, tackle my girlfriend, and audible to "not working hard today"
in your defense, the cat had it coming...
Maybe he meant 25-35% passing team...you know:
1st down - rush up middle for 1 yard
2nd down - rush up middle for 0 yards
3rd down - complete pass for 7 yards
4th down - punt.
25% passing.
I certainly understand it was not said with malice or any wrong intentions. I wouldn't chastise any of the 11W staff for any of their write ups which is why I continue to visit this sight. If I were truly offended I could just choose not to read. That isn't the case. I guess my comment was made to question the "Taste" of the phrasing. I know that Pearl Harbor was many decades ago but the loss and shock were no less important to America then, than what took place on 9/11. I'm not trolling or fussing nor do I expect a retraction or anything crazy. Just wanted to put it out there for consideration. You guys keep up the fine work!
I was hoping that this corrupt and newly-incarcerated Pennsylvania politician and former NFL/college football player went to PSU, for maximum LOLz factor.
Instead, Christmas came early. He went to Michigan.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponlin...
I didn't mean to make light of the costs of war, but the whole basis of the game is derived from battle.
Quick question, do arm punts factor into run/pass ratio?
I think there are some factors involved with how many times the ball is thrown.
If the defense gets alot of stops, the game is high scoring and Pryor is allowed to make some reads at the line of scrimmage, there could be 25-35 passes per game.
If the defense gets alot of turnovers with short yardage, OSU has a large lead or the running game is just eating teams alive, then there is no need to throw the ball 25-35 times.
The thought that scares me is the only time OSU really would need to toss the ball that many times is if they are behind. I would prefer Pryor throwing 15-20 times with around 200-250 yards passing. Big plays with minimum amounts of risk. Let's face it, short passes really has not been Pryor's forte.
One thing to keep in mind in the 2006 stats - the offense was so dominant that year that many times the passing game would be almost completely shut down by the third quarter. When scoring still mattered, the passing balance was very different.
Since we are talking about Tressel's play calling, it's good to revisit his old play-calling card, and consider how far we have come. Or not. We'll see in a few weeks.
http://img269.imageshack.us/im...
thanks brett,, didn't recogognize him with the facial hair, I thought it was cuz the tattoo
They also tend to force you to pass more on third down, too. That being said, I'm not opposed to mixing it up (Lord knows I've gotten irritated with the run-run-run-punt crap we see from time to time), but I think you have to keep an eye on the expected outcomes. You can change WHEN you pass and run without changing how MUCH you pass and run. My point is that the relative balance of passing and running is, right now, at a good place (mathematically speaking).
Obviously you didn't want the game then.
ZING! Too late :-(
The "when" to me also applies to how far into the game you are and the situation. My general feeling is that Tressel is typically more "unpredictable" early in the game and much more predictable in the second half, especially with a lead, which he usually has.
I'm just thinking he has a lot of weapons and, even though it was one game, he threw a ton in the Rosebowl and it worlked well. I can totally see them crafting the offense to look more like it did in the Rosebowl because it worked so well. Which would tell me throwing 25 times a game isn't out of the realm of possibilities.
from the master of Ohio State videos on youtube...the Chase for Num8er Eight!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
Strong work indeed. I think ball control is the primary concern... somehow Ohio State managed to stick to that motif during the Rose Bowl, only through the air as opposed to on the ground. If Tressel becomes that confident in Pryor, and Pryor answers the call... I'm all for it.
why would the put Devier Posey in the trophy case? He's much more fearsome on the field.
Photos of the first practice:
http://www.ohiostatebuckeyes.c...
And Pryor is in a knee-brace. Time to panic? I'm cool with panicking.
I'm not familiar with knee injuries. Does anyone know if this is normal?
no panicking, he had surgery in the off season and doesn't need his knee getting FFFFFFFuuuuuugggged in practice.
Yeah there's just no way that we could enter the season ranked at #2 in the country and then in the first game promptly lose our best player to an lower extremity injury that screws the chances for a national title.
Unless, of course, lightning strikes twice, and Beanie Toe 2008 because Pryor Knee 2010. Which would be in keeping with the wishes of the Football-Gods-Who-Hate-Ohio-State.
i see what you did there.
but think about it, the guy had surgery a few months/weeks ago. he should wear the practice during practice, and even the games if need be.
I think, hope, and pray that you are right. TP is tough but the season is going to be brutal and I think we can bet on opposing defenders gunning straight for that knee. The line better show up on every game and the left tackle needs to be tremendous to protect TP's blindside.
that's exactly why he should wear that brace all year. the knee is a very delicate joint, held only together by muscles and ligaments, completely different from "ball and socket" joints like your hip or shoulder which tend to be more stable.
Let's save the panic until we hear that he's not moving well, or that he's regressed int he passing game which I don't THINK will happen.
so the preseason top 25 is out and 5 of the top 15 are Big10 schools(if we now include nebraska) and 2 SEC teams. What is up with the almighty power Confrence that is the SEC
http://www.miamiherald.com/201...
U-Miami being investigated for impermissible text messages. If I had a dollar for every time I was investigated for impermissible texts...
i recently had my knee put back together and this is perfectly normal- @ this point it's probably on personal preference. the braces they make these days of carbon fiber- very strong and offer significant protection. just a precautian i assume...
PC'ness is killing this country. I for one would like to see us lighten up a bit.
Really just about anything can be said that someone could possibly find offensive:
"Tate Forcier crapped his paints when Heyward slammed him into his own endzone"
Well my mom has IBS and my mother in law is recovering from radiation that has her bowles acting up, so please refrain from the comparison, as crapping your paints is sometimes nothing you can control and can be linked to deadly deseases and should not be compared to playing a sport. (I apologize for all my comments about Joe Poo, just to set the record straight).
LMAO. I love this blog....
Enter the Sandman. One of my favorite tunes, and would sound cool with Simon coming onto the field to slay the opponents.
I'll tell you what I find offensive: A MOSQUE 600 FEET FROM GROUND ZERO! Now that is something to get pissed off about! I'm sick of P.C.
Go Buckeyes!
And you see, I love cats. So I took the bad taste comment of 'punting of the cat' and took it for what it is worth- a clever take that I did not take too literally.
Never kick a pussy. It's bad luck.
Crapping your 'pants' instead of your 'paints' could also apply.
That totally gave me a chubby.
Great breakdown. But when I run Tressel's comments through the ol' decoder ring, this is what I get: "Pryor will run less this year."
I certainly understand your point and we're definitely not out to offend. For better or worse, I do think there's somewhat of an expiration date on how long things remain offensive to the masses. For instance, comparisons to Civil War battles are probably much more palatable than say, the Tet Offensive. See also: all of the awesome punchlines involving the Battle of Bunker Hill.
What's the line? That's hard to say. I can only say that we'll do our best to ensure we don't offend too many people and I like to think we do a pretty good job of recognizing our men and women in uniform.
Bonus question: Joe is former Army and I spent time in the glorious 4th Marine Division. Does that grant us a little wiggle room?
yes, mac is superior to PC from what those commercials tell me. must consume muuusssttt consuuummmme
Lexco44 kills Kitchel in Ohio State videos.
Kitchel makes the same damn videos over and over each year.
Lexco 44 makes the best HIGHLIGHT FILMS, i like how kitchell adds the theatrical element.......
20-3 or 20-4 for a true junior to be is not what i would call finally winning something
run sets up the pass, pass sets up the run. where are we most talented ?