Easy Bucks: Analyzing the Spread, Point Total and Props to Watch for Ohio State vs. Notre Dame

Unshakable confidence notwithstanding, the trip to South Bend serves as the most daunting game yet for Ohio State in a young season that has the Buckeye offense rallying behind Kyle McCord at the right time. The books have responded figuratively with OSU's slimmest line and shallowest total of the season.

Will Marcus Freeman fare better in his encore performance against his alma mater? Or can Ohio bettors smash the year’s first Buckeye moneyline with a respectable amount of juice on it and not look back?

As always, play responsibly, and let's consider the sports betting perspective for Ohio State's showdown with Notre Dame.

Lines and odds courtesy of Action Network market consensus or best available.

The Spread: Ohio State -3

The storied clash of Golden Domers and Silver Bullets dates back to the 1930s, but the betting history between Ohio State and Notre Dame only dates back to the 1995 game. The Buckeyes blew away betting expectations in what turned into a romp of the Fighting Irish highlighted by Terry Glenn's 82-yard touchdown that left a mid-interview Regis Philbin stunned in silence.

That set the trend for the rest of the history between these two up until a season ago. Ohio State crushed narrow spreads in a pair of Fiesta Bowls against the Fighting Irish across the previous respective decades, then found themselves favored by three scores last year in what proved to be a too-close-for-comfort home opener.

So was last year just a one-off in what has traditionally been smooth sailing against Notre Dame? The Buckeyes won in their only other previous visit to South Bend, but the betting data for that game ceases to exist online by our best research. Ohio State went 2-3 against the spread on the road in 2022, but only one of those games had a closing margin in the single digits – when Ohio State covered as an underdog in a losing effort to Georgia.

Field goal attempts figure to show themselves scarcely on Saturday as the Fighting Irish have converted on all of their fourth-down attempts this season, while Ryan Day has had the Buckeyes go for it quite frequently to the tune of an 80% success rate of their own. Should the Buckeyes find victory, it figures to decide itself by one of hopefully many visits to the end zone rather than the leg of either team's kicker.

The Total: 55.5

Point totals have a bit less rhythm to their results in context of the history between these two programs. Though the lines across these games have evolved much more consistently closer to each other over time than the spread, the record sits at a dead heat given the lack of betting data for the 1996 game.

However, given the similarity among projections, taking an average of the other four meetings produces a point total of 56 — easily missed by the 45 points scored in the 1996 contest. That would appear to grant a slight edge to the under, but there are both conflicting and supporting signals towards that side meriting additional examination.

For one, Ohio State has only hit an under in three of its previous 13 games. Two of those occurred in the first two games of this season, but both of those instances saw Ryan Day treat each game as more of a quarterback evaluation window than a sprint to victory. Kyle McCord's first full effort firmly at the helm of the offense produced 63 points last weekend as the Buckeyes nearly crushed the over by themselves.

Worse yet, Notre Dame has found an under just once in their previous 11 games going back to last season. The lone hit occurred in August's Week 0 waltz with the infamous offensive juggernauts at Navy.

But as alluded to in last week's Easy Bucks, the new time stoppage rules have the blindsiding potential to exacerbate clock drain more quickly than ever before in games that become grindy affairs. Contests destined to turn into shootouts will continue to blow out the over side, but sportsbooks have already begun adjusting point total expectations for Ohio State relative to last season. The Buckeyes opened this game with a projected total of 63.5 that has since fallen a whopping eight points.

There's a case for either side here, and that combined with the contrast in trends creates a scenario where it seems probably best for bettors to stay away from picking the point total this week. Besides, the spread and moneyline already have kinder price tags available than what OSU fans usually receive on a given week.

Prop Watch: Emeka Egbuka, 25+ Receiving Yards Each Half

The swell of betting activity across the country in recent years has correspondingly led towards greater efforts from sportsbooks to market enticing offers to new and existing customers. These not only arrive in the form of sign-up bonuses, but also house-exclusive props and parlays.

In many cases, these bets usually present themselves with an enticing architecture housing greater exposure to risk than perhaps advertised, which the books hope bettors fail to recognize. However, such a business strategy can spell doom for the bookies when the football gods mercifully cast harmony upon the sport.

The most recent example would be last weekend's NFL team-wide afternoon special from FanDuel that offered a payout at +20000 odds if each team's starting kicker in the early and late afternoon window made a field goal. That price would drop to +14000 before close, and the sportsbook with the largest market share in the United States eventually lost $20 million on a meme kicker parlay — in Week 2 of the NFL season — that it did not have to present to the public.

A quick glance at that same book reveals another plus-value special this weekend relative to Ohio State's meeting with Notre Dame: +200 for Emeka Egbuka to record 25+ receiving yards in each half.

Though undoubtedly aided by Jaxon Smith-Njigba's injury in the season opener a year ago, Egbuka caught nine passes for 90 yards and a touchdown in his previous performance against the Fighting Irish. He has also eclipsed 50 receiving yards in all but three games since the start of last season, with two of the other games arriving in a blowout he exited early and a quarterback tryout – both against Indiana.

Egbuka averages north of five receptions per game going back to last year's meeting with Notre Dame, as well as approximately 16 yards per catch over his Buckeye playing career. He does have less than half as many career receptions on the road compared to at home, but his yards per catch away from Ohio Stadium hardly drops off from his career average. Egbuka caught at least five passes in all of Ohio State's road games last season other than the bout with Northwestern played in a Midwestern hurricane.

A pair of receptions by Egbuka in each half should satisfy the criteria for this special wager. At the same price for Julian Fleming to score his first touchdown since the Iowa game last October, the value here appears undeniable.

Good luck, and go Buck$.