Easy Bucks: Analyzing the Spread, Point Total, and Other Betting Lines for Ohio State vs. Youngstown State

But will the Buckeyes finally cover a spread in 2023 or help the game achieve its projected point total? That remains to be seen!

The dawn of sports betting in Ohio has seen a turbulent start to the Buckeye football season for loyal fans investing in OSU to live up to the bookies' expectations. Lines will adjust accordingly, but shifts in the market still demand ongoing analysis that can aid throughout early-season stages when data lacks the sample to illustrate what currently occurs across teams.

As always, play responsibly, and let's consider this week's sports betting perspective for Ohio State's showdown with Western Kentucky.

Lines and odds courtesy of Action Network market consensus or best available.

The Spread: Ohio State -29

It may come as some surprise to learn that in the long and storied history of college football, Ohio State and Western Kentucky have never met on the gridiron. This creates a second consecutive week where digging up trends that align relative to the recent history of each team proves a bit more complex than usual.

Rather, the lack of head-to-head data forces an examination of more simple trends relative to the spread than usual. Concerning the visitors, WKU has covered in nine of its last 14 games dating back to last season while also winning four of its last five road games overall. Thus far in 2023, the Hilltoppers opened their year with a successful home cover on South Florida, but last week failed to topple Houston Christian at home by a lofty projection of 42.5 points despite WKU going on to win by a 52-22 final score.

Compare that to Ohio State, which under Ryan Day has had a great record covering the spread by national standards but has struggled out of the gate to do so this season. Sky-high scoring expectations for the Buckeyes in spite of the recently resolved quarterback battle have seen OSU fail to cover closing spreads of 30 and 45 points respectively against Indiana and Youngstown State.

The safer trend for Buckeye bettors searching for a smart play on the spread this weekend would be to shorten the window from an entire game to the opening quarter. Ohio State has successfully covered the first-quarter spread in five of the last six games in Columbus. If Kyle McCord can provide another fast start through the air against a defense allowing at least three touchdowns per game so far – and the Silver Bullets can shut out a second straight FBS opponent in the opening quarter – a 6.5-point spread over the first 15 minutes seems plenty attainable.

The new clock rules may also make it difficult for the underdog to close any early scoring gaps with offensive success beyond quick-strike plays for huge gains or long scores. Even in the event the Hilltoppers find the end zone, the Buckeyes demonstrated last week that they can still close out the first stage of the game leading by a touchdown.

The Total: 64

Speaking of clock rules, there remains an open debate across college football circles through two weeks about whether or not the recent commercial-friendly legislative adjustments to the game have permanently altered pace of play and other dynamics. Andy Anders explored this trend a bit himself yesterday relative to OSU, and found that while the drop-off across college football thus far has not yet played out in completely significant fashion, the drop in total plays has affected the Buckeyes more sharply than most.

I am forecasting that more teams will find themselves sandbagged in a similar style to Ohio State as the college football schedule gradually transitions away from chaotic non-conference opening slates towards more traditionally competitive conference play. As opponents encounter more resistance, scores will go down while minutes will continue to tick away. This positions point total bettors well for capitalizing on unders before the books make adjustments on their lines, likely no later than the end of the month.

To that point, if you invested in unders across Ohio State's first two games, you are already sitting on a nice pile of Easy Bucks through the opening weeks of the season. The Buckeyes and Hoosiers failed to even meet half of their projected total at 59.5, while OSU and YSU fell woefully short of last week's threshold of 57 points by over two touchdowns.

Western Kentucky has a split on overs and unders through two weeks, but the Hilltoppers also haven't seen the lower end of the point total hit across any of their last three road games. In spite of the recent lack of success in this area, Ohio State has successfully cashed an over in nine of the team's last 12 games going back to last year. The Buckeyes have also converted overs on the first half's point total in six straight contests at the Horseshoe, as well as in the first quarter across five of their last six home games.

A full game from McCord likely lends itself to a more productive outing for the Ohio State offense than what fans have witnessed to this point. But 64 points between these sides may prove difficult to achieve if Day calls off the dogs in the second half after an early romp to ensure clean bills of health ahead of Notre Dame next week. Any offensive sputter from the Hilltoppers will only add to the agonizing wait of any over bettor.

Prop to Watch: Marvin Harrison Jr., 2+ TDs

Anytime-touchdown enjoyers regrettably will find that four key Buckeyes this weekend find themselves with highly juiced odds to get in the end zone: Marvin Harrison Jr., TreVeyon Henderson, Emeka Egbuka, and Miyan Williams. Given the presumably turnstile Hilltopper defense, you can give the books some grace for attempting to dissociate risk in their prices.

But rather than parlaying several OSU players to deploy their own unique TD celebrations, consider instead doubling down on an individual scoring threat against WKU. After last week, Marvin Harrison Jr. has now scored multiple touchdowns in three straight games against non-Power 5 opponents. In fact, the only time in his career in which he did not do so against such a team was when he played only in relief duty against Tulsa and Akron as a true freshman in 2021.

Furthermore, Route Man Marv now has brought in at least a pair of touchdown receptions in five of his eight career games with at least 100 receiving yards. In the three non-Power 5 games Ohio State has already played in the last two years (Arkansas State, Toledo and Youngstown State), Harrison Jr. has averaged nearly 150 receiving yards per game on over 6.5 receptions.

McCord needed all of one quarter to find his favorite target in the end zone twice last week. If the path to victory includes beating the Hilltoppers at their own game with respect to putting up points, it becomes hard to imagine the son of a Pro Football Hall of Famer failing to find paydirt multiple times on Saturday.

Good luck, and go Buck$.