Ohio State has won all of its games between the gridiron lines, but how is the team trending with Vegas' lines? Let's dive into some of the trends that the Buckeyes are currently riding.
Remember, past results do not guarantee future success.
Clemson vs. Ohio State (Ohio State +7.5, O/U 65.5)
| CATEGORY | RECORD |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 3–3 |
| LAST 10 | 4–6 |
| LAST 20 | 12–8 |
| LAST 30 | 15–15 |
| STREAK | LOST 1 |
This season, Ohio State is undefeated on the football field, but is batting .500 against the spread.
The Buckeyes started the year with back-to-back wins against the line (Nebraska -26.5, Penn State -10), then dropped consecutive contests (Rutgers -38.5, Indiana -21), followed by a win (Michigan State -22.5) and a loss (Northwestern -17). Where does this rollercoaster leave us trend-wise? Absolutely nowhere.
Day Spread
Ryan Day has a stellar 22–1 record over his first 23 games. Against the Vegas line, he is 14–9 (.609). When facing ranked opponents, Day's record is 8-1 straight-up – yes, Clemson is responsible for the only blemish on Day's overall record – but falls to 4-5 against the spread.
Looking a little closer, Day has failed to cover the spread in three of the last four contests, and the over was also the correct play in three of the last four.
| CATEGORY | RECORD |
|---|---|
| LAST 5 | 2–3 |
| LAST 10 | 5–5 |
| LAST 20 | 11–9 |
| STREAK | LOST 2 |
Bowl Spread
Starting with the 1998 Sugar Bowl against Florida State, the Buckeyes are 11-11 against the spread in bowl games, including 14 under and eight over total scores. The 50/50 split continues as Ohio State is 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 bowls. Even with all of this parity, there is a possible trend occurring.
Since the Buckeyes beat Oregon in the 2010 Rose Bowl, the outcome of the game has matched the against the spread result 10 of 11 times. In fact, heading into the 2019 Rose Bowl against Washington, this trend had hit nine consecutive games. If you think Ohio State will lose to Clemson, that suggests you might want to go with the Tigers and the points.
Since 1998, Ohio State is 2–0 against the spread as a 7.5 point underdog.
Over/Under 65.5
| CATEGORY | RECORD |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 3–2–1 |
| LAST 10 | 4–5–1 |
| LAST 20 | 10–9–1 |
| LAST 30 | 15–14–1 |
| STREAK | UNDER 1 |
In the total points scored category, Ohio State has been leaning toward the over in recent games. In three of the last four played, over was the correct call. Until the title tilt against Northwestern, the Buckeyes had a three-game winning streak with the over bet. However, the 32 combined points in the Big Ten Championship Game brought a screeching halt to that trend.
Before crowning over as the correct call, let's take a look at the average points scored and allowed by both Ohio State and Clemson. The Buckeyes are scoring 43 points and allowing 21 points per game this year for an average total of 64. The Tigers are putting up 45 and giving up 18 points for a total of 63. If these averages hold, the total should be under. Well, that muddies things up a little bit.
In the Buckeyes' last eight games against ranked teams, the over has only hit once. Six of those games went under, while one was a push.
Considering that Ohio State has held its opponents under 20 points in each of its last two games and Clemson has held its opponents under 20 points in each of its last three games, under might be the smart play.
Underdog, Super Dog?
| CATEGORY | RECORD |
|---|---|
| 2020 | 0–0 |
| LAST 10 | 8–2 |
| LAST 20 | 15–5 |
| LAST 30 | 21–9 |
| BOWLS | 7–4 |
| STREAKS | LOST 1 |
Last Ten
Vegas hasn't given points to Ohio State this season. The last time the Buckeyes were an underdog was in last year's CFP semifinal against Clemson. Ryan Day's squad lost the game and against the spread. Prior to that defeat, Ohio State had a seven-game winning streak on the field and against Vegas' line.
Since Nov. 26, 2011, the Buckeyes have been spotted points 10 times. During that stretch the Scarlet and Gray are 8–2 with the points and 7–3 straight up. Over has hit five times and under has hit five times in those 10 games.
Last 20
Peeling back some more layers, the straight-up record takes a bit of a hit when Ohio State is the underdog. Starting with the USC game on Sept. 13, 2008, the Buckeyes are 11-9 without the points. However, they are a respectable 15-5 against the spread, including wins in 11 of the last 13 as the dog.
 |
 |
|
| AGAINST THE SPREAD | ||
| 3–3 | 2020 | 5–6 |
| 4–6 | LAST 10 | 5–5 |
| 12–8 | LAST 20 | 12–8 |
| 15–15 | LAST 30 | 19–11 |
| LOST 1 | STREAKING | WON 3 |
| OVER/UNDER | ||
| 3–2–1 | 2020 | 6–5 |
| 4–5–1 | LAST 10 | 6–4 |
| 10–9–1 | LAST 20 | 11–9 |
| 15–14–1 | LAST 30 | 15–15 |
| UNDER 1 | STREAKING | UNDER 2 |
| UNDERDOG ATS / FAVORITE ATS | ||
| 0–0 | 2020 | 5–6 |
| 8–2 | LAST 10 | 5–5 |
| 15–5 | LAST 20 | 13–7 |
| 21–9 | LAST 30 | 19–11 |
| LOST 1 | STREAKING | WON 3 |
| BOWL GAMES ATS | ||
| 2–3 | LAST 5 | 3–2 |
| 5–5 | LAST 10 | 8–2 |
| 11–9 | LAST 20 | 11–9 |
| LOST 1 | STREAKING | LOST 1 |
Looking for an over/under edge? 13 of the last 20 games in which the Buckeyes were underdogs have gone the way of under, but that includes seven straight at the beginning of this scenario. In the last six games, over has been the correct play four times with the Buckeyes as the underdog.
Head-To-Head
Against The Spread
Clemson is slightly under .500 against the point spread this season.
Over its last 10 games, Clemson holds a one-game advantage and the programs are tied 12-8 when comparing the last 20 games against the line. Looking at the current streak, the Tigers have three consecutive covers while the Buckeyes did not cover against Northwestern.
Over and Under
Both teams' games have gone over more often than under this season. However, those numbers change in games between ranked opponents. As noted above, betting under would have been the winning play in seven out of the last eight games Ohio State has faced a ranked opponent.
Against Each Other
For this category, let's focus on how Ohio State and Clemson have fared when facing each other in bowl games over the last 10 years. This won't take long. The Tigers won and covered the spread in all three games.
Under was the winning prop in the last two contests with the average total score coming in at just under 53 points. The 2014 Orange Bowl (75 points) is the only time in a head-to-head game that the two schools have combined for more than this year's over/under line of 65.5.
 |
 |
|
| AGAINST THE SPREAD | ||
| 4–7 | 2020 | 8–3 |
| 5–5 | LAST 10 | 8–2 |
| 11–9 | LAST 20 | 12–8 |
| 16–13–1 | LAST 30 | 17–13 |
| LOST 2 | STREAKING | LOST 1 |
| OVER/UNDER | ||
| 6–5 | 2020 | 7–4 |
| 6–4 | LAST 10 | 6–4 |
| 9–11 | LAST 20 | 11–9 |
| 14–16 | LAST 30 | 18–12 |
| UNDER 1 | STREAKING | OVER 1 |
| UNDERDOG ATS / FAVORITE ATS | ||
| 1–1 | 2020 | 8–2 |
| 4–6 | LAST 10 | 5–5 |
| 11–9 | LAST 20 | 13–7 |
| 16–14 | LAST 30 | 17–13 |
| LOST 1 | STREAKING | LOST 1 |
Alabama vs. Notre Dame (Alabama -19.5, O/U 65.5)
The last time the Crimson Tide and the Fighting Irish faced off was Jan. 7, 2013, in the BCS National Championship Game. Nick Saban and Alabama were 10-point favorites and easily covered in the 42-14 victory. The O/U of 40.0 was also surpassed.
Notre Dame is getting 19.5 points in this year's matchup. How many times has the team from South Bend such a heavy underdog? Only four times since 1998, and not since Nov. 29, 2008, when the Fighting Irish lost and did not cover the 32.5-point spread against USC. Notre Dame is 2-2 against the spread in those four games, and the under has hit three times in this scenario.
The last 30 times Alabama has faced an opponent as a favorite of 19 points or more, the Crimson Tide is undefeated on the field and is 19-11 against the spread. Nick Saban's program has won eight out of the last 10 against Vegas' line and is on a six-game winning streak against the spread when spotting over 19 points.
Only twice since 1997 has 'Bama been favored by exactly 19.5 points. The Tide split those contests against the line, but hit the over in both.
What do you think will be the winning bets for the CFP semifinals? While we can't actually take your bets here at Eleven Warriors, you can make your picks below for what you think will happen.
