Brice Sensabaugh Still Widely Projected As First-Round Pick on NBA Draft Day, But Some Envision Second-Round Slide

Last July, before he ever logged a minute of college basketball, the Florida native put Buckeye fans on notice with a 51-point performance in the Kingdom League at Ohio Dominican University in Columbus, portending his potential future in scarlet and gray. But some still wondered how his skill set, perfectly tailored for high school highlights and scintillating summer league performances, would translate to the Big Ten – and whether or not he could make an immediate impact.

Well, Sensabaugh emphatically answered any such questions with haste. Just five games into his college career, it was already clear he could be Ohio State’s go-to scorer as a true freshman. Not long after that, the prolific forward's name started to turn up on mock drafts, and it appeared as though the Buckeyes might have a second straight one-and-done NBA draftee.

Sooner or later on Thursday night, that notion will officially become concrete.

In both of our previous mock draft roundups, one in early May and another following the NBA draft combine and lottery, Sensabaugh was almost unanimously considered a first-round selection. Across 20 total mocks, only one had Sensabaugh slipping to the second round. But with the draft now just hours away, we’ll take a final look at where analysts envision him landing below.

The knee injury that kept Sensabaugh out of Ohio State’s final two games of the 2022-23 season held him back from participating in certain early draft workouts, as the issue reportedly required surgery to fix after the season. It wasn’t his first knee injury, either, as Sensabaugh missed his entire junior year of high school basketball due to an MCL tear. But Sensabaugh was medically cleared by the start of June and recently worked out with the Los Angeles Lakers, who have the 17th overall pick in the draft.

However, Sensabaugh was not among the 25 prospects who received green room invites to be present at the Barclay’s Center in Brooklyn on Thursday. ESPN draft analyst Jonathan Givony wrote on Twitter that Sensabaugh “could be the biggest steal in this class” if he falls to the second round, and thinks that on talent alone, Sensabaugh is more like a top-20 prospect.

Brice Sensabaugh could be the biggest steal in this class if he slides on Thursday. He's the draft's most prolific per-minute scorer, and did so as a 19-year old in the loaded Big Ten, shooting 41% for 3. pic.twitter.com/IaBmU7R9Ke

— Jonathan Givony (@DraftExpress) June 20, 2023

“He started the year, he was in the lottery and he slid down because he had a season-ending surgery that has concerned some teams. They’ve looked at a little bit of his medical history and there’s a sense that he could end up in the late-first or early-second round on draft night,” Givony said on SportsCenter. “I think that’s a mistake. Brice Sensabuagh is a top-20 player in this class. … This guy did it as a freshman in the Big Ten, the highest level of competition. This guy can get buckets, and for him to go in the late first or early second is a big mistake.”

If Sensabaugh does land in the first round, he’ll follow Malaki Branham (No. 20 overall to the San Antonio Spurs in 2022) to give Ohio State its first set of back-to-back first-round selections since 2009 and ‘10, when Byron Mullens and Evan Turner both went within the first 30 picks. Assuming he’s drafted at any point on Thursday, the Buckeye program will still have draft picks in consecutive classes for the first time in 10 years.

As for the latest intel on where Sensabaugh might end up on Thursday, we’ve rounded up insight from 10 prominent prognostications below.

• ESPN, Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo
• The Athletic's Sam Vecenie
• The Athletic's Zach Harper
• CBS Sports, Kyle Boone
• CBS Sports, Gary Parrish 
• CBS Sports, Adam Finkelstein
• NBADraft.net
• Yardbarker, Pat Heery
• Tankathon
• NBA Draft Room
• NBC Sports, Tyler Byrum and Chase Hughes
• The Ringer, Kevin O’Connor

Sensabaugh Draft Projections

Tankathon: Round 1, No. 17, Los Angeles Lakers
NBC Sports (Byrum, Hughes): Round 1, No. 22 overall, Brooklyn Nets
CBS Sports (Boone): Round 1, No. 23 overall, Portland Trailblazers
The Athletic (Harper): Round 1, No. 23 overall, Portland Trailblazers
CBS Sports (Parrish): Round 1. No. 24 overall, Sacramento Kings
CBS Sports (Finkelstein): Round 1, No. 26 overall, Indiana Pacers
Yardbarker (Heery): Round 1, No. 26 overall, Indiana Pacers
The Ringer (O’Conner): Round 1, No. 26 overall, Indiana Pacers
NBA Draft Room: Round 1, No. 27 overall, Charlotte Hornets
ESPN (Givony, Woo): Round 2, No. 31 overall, Detroit Pistons
The Athletic (Vecenie): Round 2, No. 34 overall, Charlotte Hornets
NBADraft.net: Round 2, No. 35 overall, Boston Celtics

Unlike our previous roundup, in which all 10 mock drafts had Sensabaugh as a first-round pick, two projections now have the former Buckeye forward falling to round two. ESPN has Sensabaugh as the first selection of the second round, landing with Detroit, while NBADraft.net sees him slipping even further to the Celtics at No. 35.

Sensabaugh’s upper-bound projections have slipped a bit as well. While multiple mock drafts still had him going within the first 15 picks in late May, no mock draft we used put Sensabaugh higher than No. 17 to the Los Angeles Lakers (Tankathon). And no other mocks envision Sensabaugh going earlier than the 22nd overall pick. Should Sensabaugh go before pick No. 20, he’d be Ohio State’s highest draft selection since D’Angelo Russell in 2015 (No. 2 overall).

The mid-to-late 20s seems to be the most popular range for Sensabaugh, which was also the case in our last roundup. Several analysts, The Ringer’s O’Connor, CBS’ Finkelstein and Yardbarker’s Heery, predict that Sensabagh will end up in Indiana at No. 26. Former Ohio State guard Duane Washington played his rookie season with the Pacers in 2021-22, but no Buckeye has been drafted by the franchise since Clark Kellogg in 1982 (No. 8 overall).

One way or another, Sensabaugh’s dreams are slated to come true in Brooklyn on Thursday, even if he’s not the lottery pick that some pegged him to be during his lone season with the Buckeyes.