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Meyer and Day Recruiting Review: Offense Edition

+23 HS
datanut's picture
June 23, 2022 at 3:00am
65 Comments

Here's my stab at a basic review of both Urban Meyer's and Ryan Day's recruiting at Ohio State on the offensive side of the ball. I got the data for the 2012-2023 Ohio State 247 recruiting profiles and found the average recruit rating for each position group in each recruting class. I apologize if I got the years wrong but I gave Urban the 2012-2018 recruting classes and Day the 2019-2023 classes. For each position group I found the average recruit rating for each year (if there was a recruit for that position group in that year). I also found the top 5-10 recruits in each position group under each coach. I tried my best to include some graphs I made too, but was having difficulties uploading them with both Imgur an Flickr.

Offense Recruiting Overview

Avg. Offensive Recruit Comparison
  Year Urban Avg. Day Avg.
2012 0.895492  
2013 0.940278  
2014 0.915122  
2015 0.907580  
2016 0.930662  
2017 0.946575  
2018 0.944555  
2019   0.925825
2020   0.925336
2021   0.960436
2022   0.933055
2023   0.949489
Avg Rating 0.924744 0.938398
Top 10 Offense Recruits for Urban and Day
Rank Urban Recruit Score Day Recruit Score
1 Nicholas Petit-Frere 0.9963 Quinn Ewers 1.0000
2 Wyatt Davis 0.9876 Julian Fleming 0.9979
3 Jalin Marshall 0.9839 Paris Johnson Jr. 0.9953
4 Jaelen Gill 0.9831 Emeka Egbuka 0.9945
5 Jeremy Ruckert 0.9810 Garrett Wilson 0.9903
6 Trevon Grimes 0.9806 Donovan Jackson 0.9901
7 J.K. Dobbins 0.9791 Brandon Inniss 0.9897
8 Demario McCall 0.9767 TreVeyon Henderson 0.9872
9 Josh Myers 0.9757 Harry Miller 0.9868
10 Tate Martell 0.9739 Carnell Tate 0.9858

The tables above outline the average offensive recruit's rating in each class from 2012-2023 and the overall average offensive recuit's rating for the entire tenure of each coach. Each coach's 10 highest rated offensive recruits is included as well.  

Given how Day has taken Ohio State's offense into new, historic levels, it's no surprise that recruiting on that side of the ball has also improved. Still, comparing the offensive recruiting resume between Urban and Day shows how impressive Day has really been. For starters, his 10th best recruit as of now (Carnell Tate) would have been Urban's 3rd best recruit. Next, Day's best offensive class yet (2021 -> [Lead by Ewers, Egbuka, Jackson, Henderson, McCord, etc.])) is clearly the best Ohio State has seen in a while. With how successful he's been in the last couple years, it'll be very interesting to see if Day will be able to continue to build on this momentum for future classes.

QB Recruiting Overview

Avg. QB Recruit Rating Comparison
Year Urban Avg Day Avg
2012 0.87040  
2013 0.93800  
2014 0.85880  
2015 0.90030  
2016 0.95610  
2017 0.97390  
2018 0.89580  
2019   N/A
2020   0.93655
2021   0.99290
2022   0.98080
2023   N/A so far :)
AVG 0.91332 0.96794
Top 5 QB Recruits for Meyer and Day
Rank Urban Recruit Score Day Reruit Score
1 Tate Martell 0.9739 Quinn Ewers 1.0000
2 Dwayne Haskins 0.9561 Kyle McCord 0.9858
3 J.T. Barrett 0.9380 Devin Brown 0.9808
4 Joe Burrow 0.9003 C.J. Stroud 0.9780
5 Matthew Baldwin 0.8958 Jack Miller 0.8951

The tables above outline the average QB recruit's rating in each class from 2012-2023 and the overall average QB recruit's rating for the entire tenure of each coach. Each coach's 5 highest rated QB recruits is included as well.  

One of the first and biggest takeaways is the jump in QB recruit "quality" when comparing Urban and Day's recruits (and these calculations aren't including Justin Fields or Dylan Raiola). The top 4 rated QBs who committed to Ohio State from 2012-2023 were all recruited by Ryan Day. When extending to 2024 and including Dylan Raiola, it becomes the top 5 rated QBs since 2012. Given the step up the Ohio State offense and QB play specifically has taken under Day's guidance, it's not surprising the success Ryan Day has had on the recruiting front. With the early commitment of Dylan Raiola for the 2024 class and rumors over the 2023 QB recruit (Austin Novosad, Brock Glenn, etc.), the QB recruitment momentum doesn't seem like it's going to end anytime soon.

RB Recruiting Overview

First a quick disclaimer: recruits with APB were included as RBs for the calculations.

Avg. RB Recruit Rating Comparison
Year Urban Avg. Day Avg.
2012 0.941500  
2013 0.970250  
2014 N/A  
2015 0.962700  
2016 0.952650  
2017 0.979100  
2018 0.952333  
2019   0.891700
2020   0.869300
2021   0.975000
2022   0.904100
2023   0.918100
AVG 0.95705 0.92222
Top 8 RB Recruits for Meyer and Day
Rank Urban Recruit Score Day Recruit Score
1 Jaelen Gill 0.9831 TreVeyon Henderson 0.9872
2 J.K. Dobbins 0.9791 Evan Pryor 0.9628
3 Demario McCall 0.9767 Mark Fletcher 0.9181
4 Ezekiel Elliott 0.9711 Dallan Hayden 0.9041
5 Dontre Wilson 0.9694 Marcus Crowley 0.8917
6 Mike Weber 0.9627 Miyan Williams 0.8693
7 Brian Snead 0.9607 N/A N/A
8 Bri'onte Dunn 0.9570 N/A N/A

The tables above outline the average QB recruit's rating in each class from 2012-2023 and the overall average QB recruit's rating for the entire tenure of each coach. Each coach's 5 highest rated QB recruits is included as well.  

I'm not going to lie, I was really surprised at first when I saw these results. Day has been able to recruit the highest rated RB recruit in TreVeyon Henderson but Urban was able to clean up with 5 of the top 6 rated RBs. In fact, 10/11 of Urban's RB reruits would be at least the 3rd highest rated RB recruit for Day (Warren Ball was Urban's second lowest rated RB recruit with a 0.9260 composite rating).  When thinking back to the Urban offenses, a strong running game was core to the identity of the team so its no surprise Urban's RB recruits are so highly rated. However, when watching the Ohio State offense for the last couple years, sub-par running back play would not be one of the first things to pop into mind, even though these recruit averages might suggest otherwise. This might due to a factor of things (Tony Alford having no issue recruiting lesser known backs that he likes, a RB room logjam that only cleared up once JK left for the draft, etc.). However, in the NIL era, it might become prove harder and harder to get top tier RBs on a regular basis. With the public confidence in this type of RB recruit joining the 2023 class (Raiola and Montgomery are doing their jobs regardless) waning, Ohio St. fans might be looking at the 2024 class for a RB of that caliber (ex: Stacy Gage). I know I know, it's early and 2023 isn't over yet but many top 2023 RB recruits are already looking elsewhere. Unless a RB recruit shoots up the rankings, Justice Haynes seems to be the elite RB recruit most likely to commit to Ohio St in the 2023 class. Otherwise, Stacy Gage seems most likely to be Ohio State's next elite RB recruit.

WR Recruiting Overview

Disclaimer: If a recruit was listed as a WR on 247 (aka Gee Scott), they are included in the calculations. Also I ignored the concept of a transfer lol - so it doesn't matter if a recruit transferred out or not; if are on the 247 Ohio State recruiting page for their respective recruiting class, they were included (aka Mookie Cooper). 

Avg. WR Recruit Rating Comparison
Year Urban Avg. Day Avg.
2012 0.877100  
2013 0.932467  
2014 0.936133  
2015 0.915150  
2016 0.959750  
2017 0.919267  
2018 0.915833  
2019   0.976200
2020   0.977775
2021   0.970267
2022   0.954400
2023   0.965275
AVG 0.920642 0.967824
Top 10 WR Recruits for Urban and Day
Rank Urban Recruit Score Day Recruit Avg
1 Jalin Marshall 0.9839 Julian Fleming 0.9979
2 Trevon Grimes 0.9806 Emeka Egbuka 0.9945
3 Austin Mack 0.9649 Garrett WIlson 0.9903
4 Johnnie Dixon 0.9644 Brandon Inniss 0.9897
5 Kamryn Babb 0.9629 Carnell Tate 0.9858
6 Binjimen Victor 0.9546 Jaxon Smith-Njigba 0.9856
7 Parris Campbell 0.9389 Noah Rogers 0.9769
8 K.J. Hill 0.9330 Gee Scott Jr. 0.9702
9 Jaylen Harris 0.9254 Kaleb Brown 0.9684
10 James Clark 0.9104 Kyion Grayes 0.9627

The tables above outline the average WR recruit's rating in each class from 2012-2023 and the overall average WR recruit's rating for the entire tenure of each coach. Each coach's 10 highest rated WR recruits is included as well.  

No matter how you look at it, it's staggering how much better WR recruiting has gotten under Day. Yes the offense is perfect for the modern WR, but who are we kidding here. We know why WR recruiting has gone nuclear. Brian. Hartline. Backed by his unquestionable player development abilities, it's no question why Hartline has been able to bring in 5 star after 5 star. But there's a difference between having the opportunity and actually seizing it. Hartline has continually built on his momentum and taken the position room to new heights. And again, it doesn't seem like momentum is slowing down anytime soon. After coaching back-to-back-to-back first round WRs, Hartline has gotten the committment of back-to-back-to-back elite receivers (14 stars in all but who's counting). The 2024 class somehow seems poised to match and maybe even best the 2023 class with the likes of Trader, Smith, Hudson, Pellum, Denmark, etc. already showing serious interest. And somehow this also trickles down to the 25 and 26 classes too.

Oh and if you didn't notice. Day/Hartline's top 6 WR recruits are all rated higher than Meyer's highest WR recruit. And it could get better? Excuse my language but what the fuck.

TE Recruiting Overview

Avg. TE Recruit Rating Comparison
Year Urban Avg. Day Avg.
2012 0.8768  
2013 0.9615  
2014 N/A  
2015 0.8691  
2016 0.9197  
2017 N/A  
2018 0.9810  
2019   0.8754
2020   0.8862
2021   0.8871
2022   0.8917
2023   0.9410
AVG 0.92107 0.89628
Top 10 TE Recruits for Urban and Day
Rank Urban Recruit Score Day Recruit Score
1 Jeremy Ruckert 0.9810 Ty Lockwood 0.9410
2 Marcus Baugh 0.9615 Bennett Christian 0.8917
3 Jake Hausmann 0.9439 Sam Hart 0.8871
4 Luke Farrell 0.9233 Joe Royer 0.8862
5 Kierre Hawkins 0.8919 Cormontae Hamilton 0.8754

The tables above outline the average TE recruit's rating in each class from 2012-2023 and the overall average TE recruit's rating for the entire tenure of each coach. Each coach's 5 highest rated TE recruits is included as well.  

Similar to the RB recruiting, TE recuriting under Day seems to be lacking behind that of Urban. Even though the 2023 committment of Ty Lockwood might be turning the tide, his current rating still doesn't match that off both Jeremy Ruckert and Marcus Baugh. There might be many reasons for the downturn in TE recruiting and you might get different reasons based on the fan you ask (TE misutilization, TE room lead by Meyer recruits until recently, miscellaneous recruiting issues [coaches not putting in effort, etc.], etc). In fact, the TE room is one of the largest mystery marks going into the off-season. Looking on the bright side, this gives many of Day's TE recruits (or a certain LB or WR recruit) to grab this opportunity this year and show why OSU's TE room is the one to be in with their performances. While it's possible TE recuriting will pick up in the coming classes if the peer recruiting keeps up its current momentum, a boost in on-field performance sure wouldn't hurt.

OL Recruiting Overview

Avg. OL Recruit Rating Comparison
Year Urban Avg Day Avg
2012 0.896880  
2013 0.912550  
2014 0.913780  
2015 0.902680  
2016 0.911720  
2017 0.953933  
2018 0.969600  
2019   0.921775
2020   0.902500
2021   0.943700
2022   0.917350
2023   0.941733
AVG 0.91861 0.92139
Top 10 OL Recruits for Urban and Day
Rank Urban Recruit Score Day Recruit Score
1 Nicholas Petit-Frere 0.9963 Paris Johnson Jr. 0.9953
2 Wyatt Davis 0.9876 Donovan Jackson 0.9901
3 Josh Myers 0.9757 Harry Miller 0.9868
4 Jamarco Jones 0.9708 Luke Montgomery 0.9806
5 Evan Lisle 0.9663 Tegra Tshabola 0.9557
6 Matthew Jones 0.9652 Luke Wypler 0.9523
7 Demetrius Knox 0.9547 Enokk Vimaki 0.9445
8 Isaiah Prince 0.9533 Ben Christman 0.9437
9 Matthew Burrell 0.9509 Carson Hinzman 0.9300
10 Max Wray 0.9473 Joshua Padilla 0.9268

The tables above outlines the average OL recruit's rating in each class from 2012-2023 and the overall average TE recruit's rating for the entire tenure of each coach. Each coach's 10 highest rated OL recruits is included as well.  

Last but not least, the offensive line. Day has been able to recruit 4 of the 5 highest rated Ohio State OL recruits since 2012. However, starting from rank 5, Urban's recruits actually have a higher rating than those of Day, but Day is able to edge out Urban on the average OL recruit rating. These results were also surprising as I expected Urban to edge out Day here. It's not a stretch to say that offensive line play was disappointing for stretches of the year last year. Justin Frye sure will need to put in work to get our OL into elite category (both on the field and on the recruiting trail). He seems to have already made a massive impact on the recruiting trail; hopefully he'll have the same success on the field this fall.

If you've made it this far I appreciate you reading! This is my first post so I'm looking forward to making more down the road!I should have a Recruting Review: Defense Edition ready in a bit. Any suggestions are welcome as well.

This is a forum post from a site member. It does not represent the views of Eleven Warriors unless otherwise noted.

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