Was OSU looking ahead when playing Maryland? The question of “looking ahead” is brought up often. Some brush it off as an excuse, while others believe that teams (especially college teams) can and do play emotionally flat before the big games.

I have compiled data from 2003 onward on OSU’s performance in the week prior to The Game (left half of the table) as well as in the week that is an additional game removed from The Game (right half of the table). I started from 2003 because I don’t have access to the older data.

I have excluded the chaotic 2011 season and the 2020 season where we did not play Michigan. In the table, a game is described as “close” if OSU and the opposing team were separated by a touchdown or less in the 4th quarter. 

Although the sample size is limited, it clearly suggests that OSU has struggled to put the opponents away in the week preceding The Game. Overall, 65% of these games have been “close,” with 24% resulting in an OT win and 18% resulting in a loss for OSU. In contrast, in the games that are separated from The Game by an additional week, only 29% have been "close." OSU has won all such games, with no game going to OT.  

I think how OSU played against Maryland and how Michigan played against Illinois are not predictive of how these two teams would play in The Game. I believe in analytics but they should always be interpreted in the right context. This data also helps me understand why Alabama and Auburn play FCS or FBS bottom dwellers right before the Iron Bowl.