With playoff expansion now official, here’s what prior playoff fields would have looked like under the new model. The first six teams in each year’s rankings are the six highest ranked conference champs, and the next six are the at-large bids. Beyond the top four teams with bye weeks, the rankings might be a little wonky — I wasn’t sure if all conference champs would be automatically ranked ahead of nonconference champ at-large teams, or just the top four — but this will give you a pretty good idea of which teams would have made it. (I put this together myself, so if you see any mistakes, let me know).

2014-2015

1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Oregon (12-1)
3. Florida State (13-0)
4. Ohio State (12-1)
5. Baylor (11-1)
6. TCU (11-1)
7. Boise State (11-2)
8. Mississippi State (10-2)
9. Michigan State (9-3)
10. Ole Miss (9-3)
11. Arizona (10-3)
12. Kansas State (9-3)

2015-2016

1. Clemson (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Michigan State (12-1)
4. Oklahoma (11-1)
5. Stanford (11-2)
6. Houston (12-1)
7. Iowa (12-1)
8. Ohio State (11-1)
9. Notre Dame (10-2)
10. Florida State (10-2)
11. North Carolina (11-2)
12. TCU (10-2)

2016-2017

1. Alabama (13-0)
2. Clemson (12-1)
3. Washington (12-1)
4. Penn State (11-2)
5. Oklahoma (10-2)
6. Western Michigan (13-0)
7. Ohio State (11-1)
8. Michigan (10-2)
9. Wisconsin (10-3)
10. USC (9-3)
11. Colorado (10-3)
12. Florida State (9-3)

2017-2018

1. Clemson (12-1)
2. Oklahoma (12-1)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4. Ohio State (11-2)
5. USC (11-2)
6. UCF (12-0)
7. Alabama (11-1)
8. Wisconsin (12-1)
9. Auburn (10-3)
10. Penn State (10-2)
11. Miami (10-2)
12. Washington (10-2)

2018-2019

1. Alabama (13-0)
2. Clemson (13-0)
3. Oklahoma (12-1)
4. Ohio State (12-1)
5. Washington (10-3)
6. UCF (12-0)
7. Notre Dame (12-0)
8. Georgia (11-2)
9. Michigan (10-2)
10. Florida (9-3)
11. LSU (9-3)
12. Penn State (9-3)

2019-2020

1. LSU (13-0)
2. Ohio State (13-0)
3. Clemson (13-0)
4. Oklahoma (12-1)
5. Oregon (11-2)
6. Memphis (12-1)
7. Georgia (11-2)
8. Baylor (11-2)
9. Wisconsin (10-3)
10. Florida (10-2)
11. Penn State (10-2)
12. Utah (11-2)

2020-2021

1. Alabama (11-1)
2. Clemson (10-1)
3. Ohio State (6-0)
4. Oklahoma (8-2)
5. Oregon (6-2)
6. Cincinnati (8-0)
7. Notre Dame (10-1)
8. Texas A&M (8-1)
9. Florida (8-3)
10. Georgia (7-2)
11. Iowa State (8-3)
12. Indiana (6-1)

2021-2022

1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Cincinnati (13-0)
4. Baylor (11-2)
5. Utah (10-3)
6. Pitt (11-2)
7. Georgia (12-1)
8. Notre Dame (12-1)
9. Ohio State (10-2)
10. Ole Miss (10-2)
11. Oklahoma State (11-2)
12. Michigan State (10-2)

Thoughts:

I am seemingly in the minority here, but I think 12 is a good number. 6 is too few if the NCAA wants the Group of 5 to be relevant while still leaving enough spots for Power 5 teams with a realistic chance of winning it all to get bids. 8 is the magic number in terms of the quality of teams that would get a spot, but it doesn’t allow for a first round bye for the top 4, which is crucial to ensuring the regular season and conference championships are still meaningful. A 12 team playoff means some undeserving teams with no real shot at winning it all will get in, but it prevents the regular season from becoming totally irrelevant for teams like Ohio State by giving them something to play for beyond merely making the playoff. 

For second tier teams, it keeps hope alive beyond the first loss — no longer is the season over after the first or second loss. In short, the stakes for each individual game are lower, but far fewer games are irrelevant to the national landscape. I think for the format to really be successful, we will need to see Cinderella teams (9-12 seed) advance to the semifinals or championship game from time to time; lower ranked teams need to perform well enough to make the first round more than a formality. Automatic bids for conference champions are going to lead to some very weird rankings some years, but I think that’s an acceptable trade-off for keeping conference championships relevant (at least for as long as the current conference structure survives). I could see this dampening the push for conference consolidation, since teams in weaker conferences now have a much easier path to the playoff. This is a huge win for the PAC-12, BIG-12, ACC, and especially the Group of 5.

Also, Ohio State would’ve made the playoff every year since its inception with this new format. And barring a total train wreck of a season, they’re pretty much guaranteed to make it every year for the first seeable future once this format is implemented. Now it matters much more what kind of team they are at the end of the season rather than throughout the season. Does this make regular season games less exciting? For the Ohio State and Alabama‘s of the world, yes, but 90% of their regular season games are formalities anyway, and now games at the end of the season are no longer irrelevant after one or two losses. In short, it’s not a perfect format, but I think it’s an improvement… thoughts?