With a top ten matchup set for kickoff tomorrow at Noon EST, I thought I'd prepare myself by evaluating the two teams using satellite level metrics, that is, Total Offense and Defense, Rushing Offense and Defense, and Passing Offense and Defense. I must say that after comparing the teams against each other, and in relation to their opponents, the spread seems far more likely.
Let's start with the head to head comparison:
| Head to Head | Ohio State | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Total Offense | 13 | 88 |
| Passing offense | 21 | 37 |
| Rushing offense | 28 | 118 |
| Total defense | 33 | 18 |
| passing defense | 52 | 37 |
| rushing defense | 35 | 18 |
In just looking at the Head to Head metrics, Ohio State has a favorable matchup in 2 of the 3 categories (IU has the edge in OSU rushing offense versus IU rushing defense) when on offense, and 2 of the 3 categories (IU has the edge in IU passing offense versus OSU passing defense) when on defense.
Taking it one level deeper, I pulled the offensive data for the opponents of each team:
| Indiana | PSU | Rutgers | TTUN | MSU | AVG. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total o | 41 | 108 | 79 | 112 | 85 |
| passing o | 27 | 93 | 41 | 48 | 52 |
| rushing o | 72 | 94 | 106 | 122 | 98 |
| Ohio State | Nebraska | PSU | Rutgers | AVG. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total o | 84 | 41 | 108 | 77 |
| passing o | 106 | 27 | 93 | 75 |
| Rushing o | 39 | 72 | 94 | 68 |
In looking at these numbers, IU's rushing defense may be inflated, seeing as the average rating for the rushing offense of the teams they've faced is 98. Additionally, Indiana does seem to have a fairly decent passing D, seeing as they're ranked 37th against an opponent passing offense average of 52, while Ohio State is ranked 52nd with an opponent passing offense average of 75.
I don't see IU's defense stopping Justin Fields and Co., but I do see Ohio State's defense giving up a few points through the air to IU. If Ohio State can establish the ground game on offense, while mitigating yards on the ground from IU (judging by the numbers, this is VERY likely), then Tom Allen is in for a VERY long day.
Tl;dr: The satellite level numbers STRONGLY suggest Ohio State will beat the spread. Go Bucks! Beat Indy! Beat TTUN! Win it all!
