Taking a look back at the 1st CFP committee's rankings over the past 4 years to see where playoff teams were at time of the 1st set of rankings and where non-playoff teams that were ranked in the top 4 fell to prior to bowl season.

A couple of quick notes:

1. 2016 and 2017 all final top 4 teams were ranked in the top 6 whereas in both 2014 and 2015 a team outside the top 14 made it.

2. Each year at least 1 top 4 team lost 3 games, 3 of those 4 teams were SEC teams.

3. Over all 4 years only a total 4 teams that ended up in the top 4 lost a game after the week 10 ranksing (UGA and Bama in 17, Clemson and Wash in 16)

2017: 1. UGA (ended up 3), 2. Bama (ended up 4) 3. ND (ended up 12), 4. Clemson (ended up 1), 5 OU (ended up 2). 

this was the year with the least amount of change from week 10 to week 15. Nonetheless, UGA and Bama lost 1 game, and ND lost 3 games over those 6 weeks.

==> 5 total losses for current top 4 teams from week 10 until week 15

2016: 1. Bama (ended up 1), 2 Clemson (ended up 2), 3. scUM (ended up ), 4. TAMU(ended up ), 5. Wash (ended up 4) 6 OSU (ended up 3)

Again, top 4 teams were all still ranked high like in 2017, but both scUM and TAMU fell hard, with scUM losing 2 games and TAMU losing 3. Clemson and Washington also lost 1 

==> 6 total losses for current top 4 teams from week 10 until week 15

2015: 1. Clemson (ended up 1), 2. LSU (ended up 20), 3. OSU (ended up 7), 4. Bama (ended up 2)...7. MSU (ended up 3)...15. OU (ended up 4)

Lots of change this year, but Clemson, Bama, MSU and OU didn't lose a game to close out the year. OSU lost 1 and LSU lost 3.

==> 4 total losses for current top 4 teams from week 10 until week 15

2014: 1. Miss St (ended up ), 2. FSU (ended up 3), 3. Auburn (ended up ), 4. Ole Miss (ended up ), 5. Oregon (ended up 2), 6. Bama (ended up 1)...16 OSU (ended up 4)

Again lots of change, and again all the top 4 teams ran the table from week 10. Miss St ended up losing 2, Auburn lost 3, Ole miss lost 2.

==> 7 total losses for current top 4 teams from week 10 until week 16

So there you have it. History says we should fully expect at least one of the current top 4 teams to implode over the next 5 weeks. History also says if you lose a game at this point your odds of ending up in a top 4 spot is low. And as far as teams outside the top 6 getting in, that's 50/50.