I'm using this table which translates pointspread to % chance of winning.  So based on the current lines for the games of the 5 teams ahead of us in the playoff standings, here's what I came up with, but I'm no Will Hunting...

Ole Miss - 2.5  = 54% chance of them winning

FSU - 7.5 = 73% chance of winning

Oregon - 19.5 = (I had to estimate) 95% chance of winning

Bama - 8.5 = 75% chance of winning

TCU - 6.5 - 68% chance of winning

So 54% * 73% * 95% * 75% * 68% =   19.62% - chance that all 5 teams above us win

or maybe a better way to say it....80.58% chance that at least 1 of the 5 teams above us lose.

Also, this table is obviously for college football games in general so in a situation like this, where we're hoping for the underdog in 5 rivalry games...I just think that these dogs actually deserve more respect than the table is giving them, which would in turn make our % move in the right direction.  Take that TCU game for example.  You're telling me Texas only has a 32% chance to win that game?  I'd say it's a little more than that.

Therefore, I would actually fudge it to say that there is at least...conservatively, an 86% chance that at least 1 of the 5 teams above us will lose.

¯\_(°_o)_/¯

What do you guys think?
Go Bucks!!!