This is going to be a long post, but die-hard basketball followers might find it of interest…
Expectations for the OSU basketball program have been a recurring topic during the last several years, and all the chatter has come to a head this year. There have been a few posts offering up some data and analytics to frame the discussion (thanks in particular to Shookster), so I wanted to offer up some more. Below is a breakdown of Big Ten basketball trends since the 1998-99 season.
I considered going back to the 1984-85 season, when the NCAA Tournament first expanded to 64 teams. But I settled on 1999 for a few reasons:
(1) I wanted to include the OSU final four run that year to make the metrics below as favorable to OSU as possible;
(2) the 1985-1999 window is not particularly relevant to the modern day; starting in 1999 at least allows the impact of the Izzo and Ryan/Gard/ eras to be felt. Including the previous fiften years would not result in an accurate representation of the conference’s two most consistent programs over the last 20 years.
(3) it’s still a big enough sample size to allow certain programs to recover from signficant regressions that are not typical of their overall histories (looking at you Illinois, Michigan, Ohio State and Indiana)
I then compared each of the programs within the Chris Holtmann tenure from 2018 to present to see how the programs stack up during his six years against the historical trends.
I only evaluated seven programs:
Illinois
Indiana
Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Purdue
Wisconsin
These are the programs that I feel Ohio State must truly compete with in year in and year out to reach the top of the league.
The following metrics were applied:
Big Ten Regular Season Titles
Big Ten Tournament Titles
Top 4 regular season finishes in the Big 10
20 win seasons (which includes the postseason)
NCAA Appearances
NCAA wins
2nd Weekend in NCAA (i.e. reaching the Final 16 or beyond)
Final 4 appearances
I felt these metrics provided a good balance of rewarding regular season consistency but also postseason performance. Both are equally important to the stability of a college basketball team, though I recognize that most fans fixate on the postseason.
I’ll let whoever reads this post draw their own conclusions about this data.
I’m simply presenting it for your own review.
Since 1999 -- Regular Season Titles:
1. Michigan State (9)
2. Wisconsin (6)
3. OHIO STATE (5)
3. Illinois (5)
5. Michigan (3)
5. Indiana (3)
5. Purdue (3)
Since 1999 – Big Ten Tournament Titles:
1. Michigan State (6)
2. OHIO STATE (4)
3. Wisconsin (3)
3. Illinois (3)
5. Michigan (2)
6. Purdue (1)
7. Indiana (0)
Since 1999 – Top 4 finish in the Big Ten regular season:
1. Wisconsin (20)
2. Michigan State (18)
3. Purdue (14)
4. Illinois (13)
5. OHIO STATE (11)
6. Indiana (9)
7. Michigan (6)
Since 1999 – number of 20 win seasons:
1. OHIO STATE (21)
2. Michigan State (20)
3. Wisconsin (19)
4. Illinois (17)
5. Purdue (15)
6. Indiana (14)
7. Michigan (13)
Since 1999 – number of NCAA appearances:
1. Michigan State (23)
2. Wisconsin (22)
3. OHIO STATE (17)
4. Purdue (16)
5. Illinois (13)
5. Indiana (13)
7. Michigan (11)
Since 1999 – number of NCAA wins:
1. Michigan State (52)
2. Wisconsin (35)
3. OHIO STATE (28)
4. Michigan (25)
5. Purdue (24)
6. Illinois (19)
7. Indiana (16)
Since 1999 – advancing to the second weekend of the NCAA:
1. Michigan State (13)
2. Wisconsin (10)
3. Purdue (8)
4. OHIO STATE (6)
4. Michigan (6)
6. Indiana (4)
6. Illinois (4)
Since 1999 – Final 4 appearances:
1. Michigan State (8)
2. OHIO STATE (3)
2. Wisconsin (3)
4. Michigan (2)
5. Indiana (1)
5. Illinois (1)
7. Purdue (0)
During the Holtmann era (2018 to present)
*** does not include this season since the year isn’t over ***
Big Ten Regular Season Titles:
1. Michigan State (3)
2. Wisconsin (2)
3. Michigan (1)
3. Illinois (1)
3. Purdue (1)
6. OHIO STATE (0)
7. Indiana (0)
Big Ten Tournament Titles:
1. Michigan State (1)
1. Michigan (1)
1. Illinois (1)
4. OHIO STATE (0)
4. Indiana (0)
4. Purdue (0)
4. Wisconsin (0)
Top 4 regular season finishes:
1. Purdue (4)
2. Michigan State (3)
2. Michigan (3)
2. Illinois (3)
2. Wisconsin (3)
6. OHIO STATE (2)
7. Indiana (0)
20 win seasons:
1. OHIO STATE (5)
2. Michigan State (4)
2. Michigan (4)
4. Illinois (3)
4. Purdue (3)
4. Wisconsin (3)
7. Indiana (2)
NCAA Appearances:
1. OHIO STATE (4)
1. Michigan State (4)
1. Michigan (4)
1. Purdue (4)
5. Wisconsin (3)
6. Illinois (2)
7. Indiana (1)
NCAA Tournament wins:
1. Michigan (12)
2. Purdue (7)
3. Michigan State (6)
4. OHIO STATE (4)
5. Illinois (2)
5. Wisconsin (2)
7. Indiana (1)
Advancing to the 2nd Weekend in NCAA:
1. Michigan (4)
2. Purdue (3)
3. Michigan State (1)
4. OHIO STATE (0)
4. Indiana (0)
4. Wisconsin (0)
4. Ilinois (0)
Final 4s:
1. Michigan State (1)
1. Michigan (1)
Everyone else with 0
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To me the numbers suggest Holtmann is slightly underperforming the standard, but is not so far off the pace that he can’t make up ground quickly in the next 3-4 years if he rights the ship. The consistency has been there – other than this year of course. But the benchmark achievements have not.
It’s worth noting that the three previous OSU coaches started out really hot in their tenures – which many on this site have noted. But what hasn’t been pointed out nearly as often is that they all collapsed at the end of their runs in spectacular fashion. Obviously the 2023 season is a spectacular collapse on its own, but in general a slow build is not necessarily a bad thing – assuming this year is an outlier. Which it admittedly might not be.
But to feel better – look at our rivals to the north. On paper they have achieved the most during the Holtmann era, but they’re clawing to make the tournament again and it’s not smooth sailing there. Sure, they made the final 16 last year – but how many of us would have been happy with that season?
Still think we need more perspective.
But I promised not to opine on this data --- let me know your takeaways if you’re interested.
