We’re less than 48 hours away from the start of bowl season.
As is a yearly tradition at Eleven Warriors, we’re running a bowl pick ‘em contest, with the winner earning a $100 gift card to our Dry Goods store.
It’s free to enter, but it’s certainly not for the faint of heart. In this modern era of college football, we’ve got endless opt-outs, transfers and coaching changes from each team that could have a significant impact on how matchups shake out. As of this writing, at least 16 bowl-eligible teams have seen their starting quarterback hit the transfer portal, with another five teams having their starting signal-caller out of the contest for different reasons (injury or opt-outs).
Then, there’s this insane stat.
There are 39 non-playoff bowls. Only 13 bowls did not have a team lose either its head coach, OC/DC, or starting QB to transfer portal, opt out or injury. 13 of 39!!! And I'm sure that number will decrease in the coming days when more opt outs are announced
— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) December 8, 2023
So, successfully predicting all 41 FBS Bowls, plus the Celebration Bowl, feels like a fool’s errand. But that’s not going to stop us from trying our hand.
A warning before we get to the picks: These bowl games have been lightly researched with a few non-clever wisecracks inserted in between. Considering the number of opt-outs, transfers and coaching changes from each team, this is a total crapshoot, and if anyone pulls off a record higher than .600 on this, we salute you.
Saturday, Dec. 16
Myrtle Beach Bowl: Georgia Southern (6-6) vs. Ohio (9-3), 11 a.m., ESPN
Breakdown: The first bowl game that kicks off is also a perfect example of the minefields we’ll be navigating throughout the bowl season. On the one hand, Georgia Southern lost its final four games of the regular season. On the other, Ohio will be without starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke after he entered the transfer portal. The Bobcats are also without their leading rusher, running back Sieh Bangura, and leading wideout Miles Cross. Nonetheless, Ohio has been a defensive-oriented team throughout the year, as the Bobcats are fifth nationally in scoring defense (15.4 points allowed per game).
The pick: Ohio
Celebration Bowl: Florida A&M (11-1) vs. Howard (6-6), noon, ABC
Breakdown: The lone FCS matchup of bowl season seems somewhat lopsided, with 10 of Florida A&M’s 11 wins coming by 10 or more points. The Rattlers rank second in the FCS in points allowed (14.2) and yards allowed (267.3) per game. Howard leads the FCS in pass defense (129.5 yards per game) but has allowed 175-plus rushing yards four times.
The pick: Florida A&M
New Orleans Bowl: Louisiana (6-6) vs. Jacksonville State (8-4), 2:15 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: Alright, readers of the Hodgepodge column know that I’ve been championing Jacksonville State and James Madison the whole season because they deserve to play in a bowl game despite the BS two-year FCS to FBS transition rule. Well, there just weren’t enough 6-6 teams, so both of our beloved new G5 teams are going bowling. You don’t expect me to pick against the Gamecocks in their first bowl ever, do you?
The pick: Jacksonville State
Cure Bowl: Appalachian State (8-5) vs. MAC champion Miami (11-2), 3:30 p.m., ABC
Breakdown: Miami (Ohio) is only down one player via the transfer portal, but it’s a big one. Quarterback Aveon Smith took over for an injured Brett Gabbert (the brother of NFL QB Blaine Gabbert) in October and helped lead the RedHawks to a MAC championship, but he’s since decided to move on. Naturally, the RedHawks are down to their third and fourth-string quarterbacks, with coach Chuck Martin saying both Henry Hesson and Maddox Kopp will play.
Outside of quarterback, that’s all that’s impacted Miami (OH) from a transfer standpoint, and the RedHawks are bringing back a loaded roster for the 2024 season. Appalachian State is down its leading rusher (Nate Noel) and two wideouts. Miami (OH) has the nation’s seventh-best scoring defense (16.2 points per game) and should have enough to get past the one-time Michigan killers.
The pick: Miami (OH)
New Mexico Bowl: Fresno State (8-4) vs. New Mexico State (10-4), 5:45 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: The loss of New Mexico State wideout Trent Hudson (35 catches, 10 touchdowns) to the transfer portal may sting the Aggies. But Jerry Kill coached a program that was notoriously one of the worst in the FBS to a 10-win season, so it’s hard not to believe that guy will find a way.
The pick: New Mexico State
LA Bowl: Boise State (8-5) vs. UCLA (7-5), 7:30 p.m., ABC
Breakdown: Strap it in for some fun in primetime, fellas. Boise State will start true freshman CJ Tiller in his first career start out of necessity from portal/injury woes, while UCLA has three members of its secondary that played more than 345 snaps in the transfer portal, and Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year Laiatu Latu has opted out.
Oh yeah, and defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn bolted to become the new defensive coordinator for USC. It’s a mess all around, but at least star Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will play in the game.
The pick: Boise State
Independence Bowl: Texas Tech (6-6) vs. Cal (6-6), 9:15 p.m. ESPN
Breakdown: Two starting wideouts and starting left tackle Monroe Mills have hit the portal for Texas Tech, and the defense has been ravaged by injuries. But Cal’s defense has been pretty atrocious, ranked 113th in scoring defense (32.7 points allowed per game) and has only gotten worse after leading tackler Kaleb Elarms-Orr (an Ohio State target) hit the transfer portal along with starting cornerback Jeremiah Earby.
The pick: Texas Tech
Monday, Dec. 18
Famous Toastery Bowl: Old Dominion (6-6) vs. Western Kentucky (7-5), 2:30 p.m. ESPN
Breakdown: Watching Western Kentucky against Ohio State, the Hilltoppers had the look of an offense that could thrive against Group of Five competition. It didn’t turn out that way, with WKU turning in a 7-5 season. Since the regular season ended, three of WKU’s five starting offensive linemen hit the transfer portal, but they could still play in the bowl game.
Star WKU wideout Malachi Corley seems like he’ll play in the contest, but it’s uncertain if starting quarterback Austin Reed will, according to head coach Tyson Helton. Old Dominion was average to below average in most offensive and defensive categories this season, so it still seems like WKU has more upside here.
The pick: Western Kentucky
Tuesday, Dec. 19
Frisco Bowl: Marshall (6-6) vs. UTSA (8-4), 9 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: UTSA should be pretty close to full strength except for AAC Defensive Player of The Year Trey Moore, who had 14 sacks this season and is expected to visit Alabama this weekend. Marshall starting quarterback Cam Fancher is in the portal and Cole Pennington, the son of former NFL quarterback Chad Pennington, will start in his place. In limited action this season, the redshirt freshman Pennington has left a lot to be desired, throwing six interceptions with zero touchdown passes in three games. This one seems pretty straightforward.
The pick: UTSA
Thursday, Dec. 21
Boca Raton Bowl: Syracuse (6-6) vs. USF (6-6)
Breakdown: USF is pretty close to full strength. Despite the coaching change, Syracuse has lost only two major contributors to the portal. Syracuse quarterback Garrett Shrader should be full-go for this matchup after battling injuries late in the year, and could make the difference here.
The pick: Syracuse
Friday, Dec. 22
Gasparilla Bowl: UCF (6-6) vs. Georgia Tech (6-6), 6:30 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: This could be an excellent game for over bettors. Both UCF (32.5 ppg) and Georgia Tech (31.2 ppg) are among the nation’s top 45 scoring offenses. UCF has fared better defensively, though, allowing nearly five fewer points per game than Georgia Tech.
The pick: UCF
Saturday, Dec. 23
Camellia Bowl: Northern Illinois (6-6) vs. Arkansas State (6-6), noon, ESPN
Breakdown: This is everything you’d expect from two teams with .500 records. Northern Illinois’ best wide receiver Trayvon Rudolph should play, but with a slew of injuries, there may not be another wideout with more than 10 catches on the year that suits up for NIU. Meanwhile, Arkansas State has been middle of the road nationally in offense and toward the bottom of the country in defensive categories. NIU’s offense won’t win any beauty contest, but it has a top-35 scoring defense nationally.
The pick: NIU
Birmingham Bowl: Duke (7-5) vs. Troy (11-2), noon, ABC
Breakdown: Troy will be without its head coach Jon Sumrall, who left for the Tulane job, and linebacker Jayden McDonald (who had 9.5 tackles for loss), who hit the transfer portal. Other than that, all systems should be a go for Troy. Duke’s defense was stout this season, but the Blue Devils have lost their head coach to Texas A&M and eight meaningful players to the transfer portal. A few opt-outs could be coming, too.
The pick: Troy
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force (8-4) vs. James Madison (11-1), 3:30 p.m., ABC
Breakdown: Just as I advocated for Jacksonville State, I can’t not pick James Madison in this one. But this game comes with far more risk, as head coach Curt Cignetti is off to Indiana and will not coach in the bowl game, and both coordinators and the quarterbacks coach will be joining him in Bloomington. James Madison had to hire five temporary coaches just for bowl season. Nine James Madison starters/contributors are in the portal, but all are set to play in the game regardless, the only reason the pick remains feasible.
The pick: James Madison
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Utah State (6-6) vs. Georgia State (6-6), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: Georgia State was decimated by transfer portal casualties, including its top two running backs, its top wideout, its starting right tackle and its starting cornerback. Utah State has had no such woes, so congrats to the Aggies.
The pick: Utah State
68 Ventures Bowl: Eastern Michigan (6-6) vs. South Alabama (6-6), 7 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: South Alabama’s offense will be radically different after top wideout Caullin Lacy has hit the portal after a 91-catch, 1,316-yard season and star running back La'Damian Webb (1,007 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns) opted out of the game.
The pick: Eastern Michigan
Las Vegas Bowl: Northwestern (7-5) vs. Utah (8-4), 7:30 p.m., ABC
Breakdown: David Braun did arguably the best coaching job of any coach in America this season considering the turmoil he was thrown into immediately and the talent at his disposal. But he’ll be going against one of the best coaches in the country in Kyle Whittingham. Both of these teams are defensive-oriented, so under bettors, have at it.
The pick: Utah
Hawaii Bowl: San Jose State (7-5) vs. Coastal Carolina (7-5), 10:30 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: Coastal Carolina is down to its third-string quarterback and also lost a starting wideout and linebacker to the portal. San Jose State lost the cornerstone of its offensive line in left tackle Fernando Carmona and its tight end, Dominick Mazotti. In a coin flip game, we’re going with the more experienced quarterback, San Jose State signal caller Chevan Cordeiro.
The pick: San Jose State
Tuesday, Dec. 26
Quick Lane Bowl: Minnesota (5-7) vs. Bowling Green (7-5), 2 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: Does anybody want to watch Minnesota play another game? Well, the Gophers are the lone 5-7 team in bowl games this year for your viewing pleasure whether you like it or not. Minnesota will start a new quarterback, likely Cole Kramer, since starter Athan Kaliakmanis has transferred.
Considering its offense was 116th nationally in scoring offense, maybe that’s an improvement. Bowling Green picked off J.J. McCarthy three times this season, so the Falcons have that going for them. Smart money says to probably pick the Gophers here, but screw that, we’re picking this off a staunch “5-7 teams don’t belong in bowl games” policy.
The pick: Bowling Green
First Responder Bowl: Rice (6-6) vs. Texas State (7-5), 5:30 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: Texas State is playing in its first-ever bowl game in program history. That’s cool! There’s not really any significant player or coaching movement from either side here, so we go with the heart.
The pick: Texas State
Guaranteed Rate Bowl: UNLV (9-4) vs. Kansas (8-4), 9 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: Oh hell yeah, this is one of the more watchable games of bowl season if you like offense. Both UNLV and Kansas are top 30 offenses, and both are fun storylines considering the Runnin’ Rebels vastly overachieved and Kansas continues a resurgence from the Big 12 basement. Hate picking a loser here, but with minimal player movement on either side, in Lance Leipold we trust.
The pick: Kansas
Wednesday, Dec. 27
Military Bowl: Tulane (11-2) vs. Virginia Tech (6-6), 2 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: This one is tricky. Tulane will be a popular pick based on the records alone, but a coaching change combined with five starters hitting the portal and wide receiver depth is a huge question entering the contest. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, finished the season relatively strong and only had one starter leave. Going with the Green Wave because of quarterback Michael Pratt, but it’s not a confident pick.
The pick: Tulane
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: West Virginia (8-4) vs. North Carolina (8-4), 5:30 p.m. ESPN
Breakdown: If I were a college football coach, this might be the one game I try to intentionally lose. Who the hell wants a giant bucket of mayo dumped on your head? Anyway, a laundry list of starters will not play for North Carolina here, led by quarterback Drake Maye and wideout Tez Walker. West Virginia coach Neal Brown came into the season with the hottest seat in college football and vastly exceeded expectations. Unlike yours truly, I don’t think Brown would mind a tub of mayo dumped on him.
The pick: West Virginia
Holiday Bowl: USC (7-5) vs. Louisville (10-3), 8 p.m., Fox
Breakdown: As expected, Caleb Williams isn’t going to play in this game for USC. Louisville couldn’t move the ball against Florida State to save its life in the ACC championship, but that shouldn’t be a problem against this USC defense. We’ll see if the Trojans can score enough points of their own without Williams.
The pick: Louisville
Texas Bowl: Oklahoma State (9-4) vs. Texas A&M (7-5), 9 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: You could probably field an all-star team with Texas A&M’s transfers/opt-outs. Does anyone know what the bowl coaching staff looks like right now besides Elijah Robinson (who has one foot out the door to Syracuse)? Assuming Oklahoma State running back and Doak Walker Award winner Ollie Gordon plays, that’s enough for me.
The pick: Oklahoma State
Thursday, Dec. 28
Fenway Bowl: Boston College (6-6) vs. SMU (11-2), 11 a.m., ESPN
Breakdown: It’s weird to think Boston College vs. SMU is a future conference matchup as soon as next season. Alas, here we are. SMU starting quarterback Preston Stone is out for the year, which would be enough to keep the Mustangs out of the CFP if they otherwise deserved it, but it’s not enough to keep me from picking them.
The pick: SMU
Pinstripe Bowl: Miami (7-5) vs. Rutgers (6-6), 2:15 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: Rutgers may have lost its final four games of the regular season, but Miami lost a game it had a 99.9 percent chance of winning because it refused to take a knee. For that reason alone, we’re rolling with the Scarlet Knights. It has nothing to do with Rutgers standout running back Kyle Monangai playing in the game or Miami having to start its third-string quarterback, why would it?
The pick: Rutgers
Pop-Tarts Bowl: Kansas State (8-4) vs. NC State (9-3), 5:45 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: This is the polar opposite of the Mayo Bowl. I’d sell my soul to win this game. Who wouldn’t want to take a bite out of a big-ass pop-tart after winning the Pop-Tarts bowl? The Wildcats are a top-30 team in most offensive and defensive categories but have a slew of transfers and opt-outs at critical positions, most notably starting quarterback Will Howard. NC State is a defense-first team and won its last five games of the regular season. The Wildcats are optimistic about the future with quarterback Avery Johnson, a top-100 prospect, leading the charge, but the Wolfpack will be howling their way to a Pop-Tarts feast in this one.
The pick: NC State
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma (10-2) vs. Arizona (9-3), 9:15 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: Arizona finished its season on a tear, winning its final six games. All of its losses are by a single possession, two of them came in overtime. Not many players are expected to miss the bowl game, either. The same cannot be said for the Sooners, who will get their first look at five-star quarterback Jackson Arnold after the departure of quarterback Dillon Gabriel among a few other significant players.
The pick: Arizona
Friday, Dec. 29
Gator Bowl: Kentucky (7-5) vs. Clemson (8-4), noon, ESPN
Breakdown: What a fun game this is. The “our coach almost left us for Texas A&M” and “we weren’t anywhere near CFP contention” bowl. There’s probably some legit research that could be done here but we’ll go with a dart throw instead.
The pick: Kentucky
Sun Bowl: Notre Dame (9-3) vs. Oregon State (8-4), 2 p.m., CBS
Breakdown: If we’re being honest, this may be the least interesting bowl game with two Power Five teams in it. Oregon State has lost a good chunk of its coaching staff, its top two quarterbacks, its leading tackler, a key starter in the secondary, its starting right tackle and a tight end that caught eight touchdowns. Notre Dame is down to four scholarship wide receivers available after transfer portal anarchy, three offensive line starters will miss the game, and starting quarterback Sam Hartman, linebacker Marist Liufau and cornerback Cam Hart won’t play either. Somebody has to win, so guess we’ll go with the coaching staff that hasn’t been picked apart.
The pick: Notre Dame
Liberty Bowl: Iowa State (7-5) vs. Memphis (9-3), 3:30 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: Memphis gets a key advantage of playing in its own stadium, so there’s that. It’ll also be missing two offensive line starters. Iowa State has already lost to one Group of Five team on the road this season (Ohio), so no reason it can’t do it again.
The pick: Memphis
Cotton Bowl: Mizzou (10-2) vs. Ohio State (11-1), 8 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: Following Kyle McCord’s transfer, I wondered if a slew of opt-outs were coming for the Buckeyes. But after meeting with several players on Tuesday, it sure doesn’t seem like it. While we wait for decisions from Marvin Harrison Jr., TreVeyon Henderson and J.T. Tuimoloau, it seems like every other underclassman with a 50-50 chance of opting for the NFL Draft will be suiting up for this one.
The intrigue will be there with Devin Brown likely getting a chance to start for the first time this season, and Mizzou will surely treat this game like the Super Bowl with the chance to cap off a tremendous season with a statement win over a blue blood. The Tigers have legit talents in wide receiver Luther Burden and running back Cody Schrader, but the Buckeyes seem to be taking this game seriously, which makes me lean toward OSU a few weeks out.
The pick: Ohio State
Saturday, Dec. 30
Peach Bowl: Penn State (10-2) vs. Ole Miss (10-2), noon, ESPN
Breakdown: Defensive end Chop Robinson and Theo Johnson have already opted out for Penn State, while Ole Miss hasn’t seen any major roster turnover or opt-outs thus far. Ole Miss has been more balanced on both sides of the ball than the Nittany Lions, and won’t be missing a defensive coordinator or having two coaches share offensive coordinator duties like Penn State will.
The pick: Ole Miss
Music City Bowl: Maryland (7-5) vs. Auburn (6-6), 2 p.m., ABC
Breakdown: Maryland has its own problems, but all I know is Auburn lost to New Mexico State at home and gave up a 4th-and-31 to lose the Iron Bowl. That’s the only information I need.
The pick: Maryland
Orange Bowl: Georgia (12-1) vs. Florida State (13-0), 4 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: Shirts are being printed all around the country for the “we don’t want to be here whatsoever” bowl. Both coaches looked like their dogs died when meeting reporters on the Zoom press conference when the bowl game was announced. This is really just a guessing game. If most of Georgia’s starters opt to play in this game, regardless of how motivated Florida State is to add a faux 2023 national championship banner to its rafters, the Bulldogs should win against a backup quarterback.
Florida State has had a tumultuous month since being the only undefeated Power Five team to ever be left out of the four-team CFP, with politicians announcing lawsuits daily. Perhaps that encourages the Seminoles to make a statement against the two-time defending national champions. Or perhaps they don’t take the game seriously at all. Who knows.
The pick: Georgia
Arizona Bowl: Wyoming (8-4) vs. Toledo (11-2), 4:30 p.m., CW Network
Breakdown: Toledo star quarterback Dequan Finn has entered the transfer portal, and this will be the final game of Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl’s coaching career. Toledo will also be without starting cornerback Quinyon Mitchell and left guard Vinny Scuiry. Just have a feeling the Cowboys will be playing for their coach in this one.
The pick: Wyoming
Monday, Jan. 1
ReliaQuest Bowl: LSU (9-3) vs. Wisconsin (7-5), noon, ESPN2
Breakdown: This seems like a giant mismatch on paper. Wisconsin star running back Braelon Allen has already opted out. LSU’s star offensive players haven’t opted out publicly as of yet, but the Tigers can probably pull this off without them if necessary.
The pick: LSU
Fiesta Bowl: Oregon (11-2) vs. Liberty (13-0), 1 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: I think this game will be closer than most people think, even as Bo Nix is expected to play. Liberty quarterback Kaidon Salter is a special talent and could give the Oregon defense fits. That said, it’s hard to bet against Dan Lanning and Bo Nix in one last ride.
The pick: Oregon
Citrus Bowl: Tennessee (8-4) vs. Iowa (10-3), 1 p.m., ABC
Breakdown: Come on. Final go-around for our pal Brian Ferentz as offensive coordinator at Iowa. You know what I have to do. The Hawkeyes might have to get two pick-sixes from Joe “throw a football over them mountains” Milton but I have faith.
The pick: Iowa
Rose Bowl: Michigan (13-0) vs. Alabama (12-1), 5 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: I mean, you probably saw the reaction from Michigan’s players upon hearing they’ll face Alabama in the College Football Playoff semifinal. Seems a bit telling. Nevertheless, this is a game that will likely go down to the wire, but Jim Harbaugh’s track record in bowl games with a month to prepare leaves a lot to be desired, and it’s impossible to not roll with Nick Saban when he gets to sell the underdog narrative to his team.
Jalen Milroe’s legs could present a problem for Michigan’s defense, and against that Alabama front, the loss of All-American guard Zak Zinter due to injury could be costly for the Wolverines.
The pick: Alabama
Sugar Bowl: Texas (12-1) vs. Washington (13-0), 8:45 p.m., ESPN
Breakdown: I’ve doubted Washington for far too long. Kalen DeBoer coaches with guts and finds ways to win. Like last year, both CFP semifinals should be awesome, and the duel between Quinn Ewers and Michael Penix Jr. will be must-see TV.
But beating Oregon for a second time on a neutral field was enough evidence for me to believe the Huskies are a true national title contender.
The pick: Washington
