11W Basketball Mailbag: Predicting Ohio State's Tournament Seed, Possible Matchups and More

By James Grega on March 9, 2018 at 1:05p

It's not official just yet, but come Sunday night, Ohio State will be back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2015.

The Buckeyes have been projected as high as a No. 2 seed this season before dropping three of their last five games, and dropping down 'Bracketology' projections in the process.

Chris Holtmann's squad has exceeded all expectations for this season and yet, you get the feeling that a one-and-done scenario for Ohio State in the tournament would be viewed as a disappointment, considering how the season has played out thus far. 

With just more than 48 hours until the brackets are revealed, we decided to open up our basketball mailbag one last time before the Big Dance to answer your questions concerning the Buckeyes and where they stand heading into the tournament. 


What team will show up in round 1 for the bucks? Will it be the team that beat MSU and Purdue? Or will it be the team that shows up against PSU? - WezBuck28

It's really hard to say, because early in the season, Ohio State thrived on the underdog role. Now, the Buckeyes really aren't much of an underdog anymore after finishing second in the Big Ten. If Holtmann's team can get through the first round, I think that swagger of being the underdog could come back in future rounds and help spark a run, but a lot will depend on matchups as well. 

Which 12 seed do you think will beat OSU in the first round? - UrbanCulture

It is so hard to predict matchups at this point, but I think a round one matchup against Arizona State or New Mexico State in the first round out west is a possibility. The seeding favors the Buckeyes, but their opponent would be playing closer to home, so there is a trade-off there. Either way, playing a former Buckeye (Mickey Mitchell or A.J. Harris) would provide enough intrigue to make for a great first-round battle. Middle Tennessee is another school that could be a possibility, but not one that provides as much intrigue. 

Are the Basket Bucks deep enough to go on a run in the tournament? The bench has not been leaned on very much at all this year and down the stretch it seemed like it caught up with them. - CincyBuckeye31

Depends on what you define as a run. Can this team get to the second weekend? Yes. Can they advance all the way to a Final Four? I am not so confident. 

Ohio State has shown it can beat the top teams in college basketball this season, but it has also shown that guard-led teams can give them major problems, and most teams that have success in this tournament are led by athletic guards that can score off the dribble. If the Buckeyes get a favorable draw, I would set their ceiling at the Elite Eight, but I think a second round or Sweet 16 exit is most likely.

What's the biggest key to a successful run?RK84

As I mentioned above, guard play will factor in greatly, but also protecting the basketball. At this point in the season, momentum plays a huge role and when you commit too many turnovers and let teams get out in the open floor, you lose a ton of momentum and give it all to the opposite side. 

For Ohio State specifically, getting production from Kam Williams will be critical. His ability to stretch the floor and create space for the likes of Keita Bates-Diop and Jae'Sean Tate is crucial for the Buckeyes to have success offensively. Anything Williams gives you on the defensive end is gravy. 

Is K. Wesson healed enough to play a significant role? - Hetuck

Whether he is or isn't, he will have to play a significant role for Ohio State to make a run. While guard play dominates this tournament, having a big man like Wesson get 10-15 points in the paint can help keep defenses honest. When doubled on the block, Wesson has shown good vision in the passing lanes and creating shots for others when double-teamed. If he can get going early and not force shots, he could be the 'X' factor for the Buckeyes in the tournament. 

How much does the decision to hold the Big Ten tourney one week early impact OSU and the rest of the B1G teams? - Cube Farmer

That remains to be seen. I think more than anything, it will hurt teams like Penn State that are trying to get one of the final spots in the Big Dance. The Nittany Lions won two games in the conference tournament to reach the semis, but could be forgotten by the committee since they played more than a week before the selection show. 

As for the teams that make the tournament, it's all about how you manage your team during the extended layoff. I think keeping them engaged on not giving them too much time off is more important than rest at this point in the season, because everyone has played a grueling schedule to this point. I think Holtmann has done a good job of keeping his team sharp, and I think that will show come tipoff. 

Do you prepare differently for the NCAA tournament knowing that this is the ultimate stage for these guys to play on and that there is the added pressure of lose and go home? - Wigmon

I think you prepare the same, but with more sense of urgency. You probably don't change your habits all that much, but you know that the room for error is smaller so the practices and drills are probably completed with more intensity than before. I imagine the veterans on this squad especially will bring that intensity to the practice floor, Tate and Bates-Diop specifically. 

Does any Big Ten team make the Final Four? How far do you see the Buckeyes making it? - ITWASME

I wouldn't be shocked to see Purdue, Michigan or Michigan State make a run at a Final Four. A month ago, I would have said the same about Ohio State, but after dropping three of the last five and struggling against teams with stellar guard play, I am not as confident. 

If I had to pick right now without solidified brackets, I would probably pick Michigan State in the Final Four, simply because of its athleticism and star power, which can carry you very far in March. 

They say you need good guard play to go far into the tournament. Do you think that we have good enough guard play or should we bring Tate over to guard? - Keze

Tate has been playing guard all year, and I think matchups will dictate how much guard he plays in the tournament. A lot will also depend on how C.J. Jackson plays in the opening minutes. If he becomes careless with the ball and tries too much, I think Holtmann will have a quick hook for him and let Tate and Andrew Dakich play more at the point. 

How would you gauge the temperature of locker room and assess their confidence that this team can make some noise and go on a serious run right now? - DroneBuck

I was honestly surprised at the Ohio State locker room after the Penn State loss. They were upset, as you would imagine, but they weren't demoralized. I honestly believe that once they see the team across from them on the bracket, they will be ready to go, especially since that team won't feature Tony Carr and Penn State. You have to remember that Ohio State is 24-5 this season against teams that aren't from State College, Pa. and that alone should give the Buckeyes plenty of confidence going into the tournament. 

Are there any prospects that you would have said no way to at the beginning of the season that are now moderately to severely interested in coming to OSU? - Firedup

Alonzo Gaffney, the No. 1 player in the state in the 2019 class. I would have told you at the beginning of the year that Ohio State had zero chance to land him, but after the run the Buckeyes have had, I wouldn't rule him out as a potential Buckeye. Holtmann has spent a good amount of time at Garfield Heights High School near Cleveland to watch him and recruit that program, which also features electric freshman (2021) guard Meechie Johnson

Landing Gaffney would be a monster get for Holtmann, but he will still have to beat out the likes of North Carolina and other powers for his services.