WildBear Buckeye's picture

WildBear Buckeye


MEMBER SINCE   December 08, 2011

Favorites

  • SPORTS MOMENT: Rushing the field after the 1994 OSU-Michigan game.
  • COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER: Antoine Winfield
  • MLB TEAM: Cubbies
  • SOCCER TEAM: Arsenal

Recent Activity

Comment 29 Jun 2020

AE made it pretty clear there was no spurning whatsoever. If OSU had made the slightest effort to keep him, Smith would still be in the class.
 

Comment 26 Jun 2020

Not so much the Rivals bump -- a bump of some size was probably going to happen even if he stayed committed to OSU. But the if he's really one of Bama's top DB targets, I'm surprised Coombs feels so differently that no effort at all was made to keep him in the class. I would think Bama and OSU would largely have the same top targets. For example, Jordan Battle wasn't very highly ranked, but both Bama and OSU went after him hard. That makes more sense.

Comment 26 Jun 2020

I just don't get this inferiority complex. If anything, OSU has done better than Bama in the draft over the last 3-5 years. Is this an against-self-interest Bama bump? Or do you think people just haven't noticed how well OSU has done?

Comment 26 Jun 2020

AE, I don't understand how this squares with OSU having given him the cold shoulder. He's one of Bama's top DB targets and about to get a major ranking boost, but according to OSU's evaluation his current (pre-boost) 3* status reflects him more accurately?

Comment 12 Feb 2020

247 uses a gaussian curve that takes into account all recruits...and disproportionately values higher ranked.

Disagree with that part. 247's formula basically asks "how good is your Nth best recruit"? I think this is the best way to judge recruiting classes, since any one recruit may or may not pan out. So you're better off if your best recruit is the highest 4* (~33rd) and 10th best recruit is in the top 100, than if you have 5 5*s, but your 6th best recruit is #200 and your 10th best recruit is #1000.

This approach also has the advantage of BOTH scoring the whole class, AND not letting class size impact the score very much. The bottom 5 recruits in a 28 recruit class will contribute less than 5 points according to the formula, maybe even less than 3. You get exactly the added value those 5 fliers provide.

Hypothetically, having many top 100 commits and not many 300 and below commits could result in a small class ranking #1 or #2. The way Day has gone after lower ranked kids in Ohio, that's probably unlikely.

This is exactly right. The longer your list of blue chip recruits, the better your 247 score. It's fine to have SOME lower ranked kids. What I think 247 gets exactly right is that you need pretty much your entire team to be made up of blue chippers to compete for a national championship.

Day's 2020 class was a step behind Meyer's 2017 and 2018 classes in that the drop-off from 1 to 10 was a little steeper. Here are the 10th best recruits by year: Isaiah Pryor 2017 (0.9712, #63), Josh Proctor 2018 (0.9640, #71), Jacolbe Cowan 2020 (0.9322, #162).

Off to a fantastic start for 2021 with 7 top-100 recruits already.

Comment 29 Jan 2020

Anyone have any details on OSU and Derek Wingo? I know there was mutual interest very early (his sophomore year I believe?), but some time later I remember hearing he tried to commit and OSU wouldn't take him? At the time I believe his ranking had fallen some from he had started (I think his 247 composite was around 200?), so not taking his commitment over a year out made some sense. But now I see his ranking has been climbing for almost a year straight. He's been a top100 recruit since last spring, and his final ranking is 36 (247's own rankings) / 63 (composite). Is this a case where the bridge was burned under Meyer and there was go getting back in with him once Day took over, or did OSU never regain any interest in him, even under Day? Seems odd for a top100 recruit who had once tried to commit ...

Comment 29 Jan 2020

I care about recruiting titles more than most, but 2020 recruiting is over and done with now. Now I'm much more concerned about Ransom actually contributing in the secondary. OSU has had highly ranked safeties go on to become awesome starters (Vonn Bell) and had an unheralded 3* turn into one of the best college safeties every (duh), but they've also had highly ranked guys not work out for various reasons (Isaiah Pryor, Brendon White). With a highly reliable multiyear starter leaving (Fuller), a seemingly high upside / not as reliable (yet) guy poised to take his place (Proctor), and a bunch of guys who haven't seen the field at all behind him, I'm much more concerned about how, and how much Ransom will actually play in 2020, not his ranking. Will we actually see him play as a freshman, like we did with Proctor? Who comes in if Proctor has to take a possession or a half of? (Hello Wade's targeting ejection ...) What happens at that position if Proctor has a good year and leaves for the draft?

In other words, I'm ready to think of Ransom as a player on the roster, not a recruit.

Comment 23 Jan 2020

Does anyone have any insight on the disparity between OSU's level of interest/excitement about Lejond Cavazos and his ranking in 247s own rankings (525). I know coaches do their own evals, trust the coaches over recruiting services, blah blah -- I'm not asking out of concern. I'm just confused by the disparity. What does OSU see in him that 247 doesn't? Conversely, what is 247 holding against a highly recruited 6-1 DB?

Comment 30 Dec 2019

The #2 RB in the 2018 class, and the #25 recruit overall (5* obv), Lorenzo Lingard, entered the transfer portal today.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/college/acc/university-of-miami/article238824718.html

He had been at Miami (YTM), so he had chosen poorly the first go around. Not even asking if OSU is investigating this option -- seems they would be crazy not to, considering JK just declared for the draft. But has anyone heard any rumblings about how this might be going? Is there mutual interest?

Comment 05 Nov 2019

This tweet from Birm less than 10 min ago (no point in embedding because emojis don't come through, apparently):

https://twitter.com/Birm/status/1191753057555636226

And this from jbook:

So I would guess something is going on with Knighton.

Comment 02 Nov 2019

The abridged version is this: For every player, we compare his team's performance when he's on the field vs. when he's off it, and then we adjust for the skill of his teammates and opponents on every snap and consider whether each play was a run or a pass.

Sounds like the "adjust for the skill of his teammates" part isn't working as intended.

I'm not even blaming the people who came up with this model (probably someone from 538) -- when your experience comes from video game football, this is what you get. I'd blame the editor(s), except I think ESPN realized long ago that quality of content is irrelevant to their bottom line.

However, this actually isn't very different from what coaches do when they "chart" stuff. This particular is an example of "garbage in, garbage out". But if you put together football people who know what to look for with modeling people, you could come up with a model that's actually quite informative. Too bad the better business decision for ESPN is to have Stephen A. Smith do football draft analysis.

Comment 01 Aug 2019

I'm not going to pay money for several hundred pages of Michigan fans being excited about their upcoming season. So I won't be getting "my" copy any time soon.

Trying to predict Day's success based on ... um ... "historical evidence" (I guess?) does seem ... let's say unlikely to be accurate. Specifically, there is no accounting for keeping the very robust structure Meyer put in place (performance tracking, Marotti, Pantoni, player personal development, etc, etc) while almost certainly improving on Meyer's recent schematic swoon. Day is not subject to practically any pitfalls encountered by new coaches because he's basically hopping into an idling Ferrari.

Comment 01 Aug 2019

They did, but Meyer got pantsed by Iowa and Purdue in consecutive years. In Herman's case, it was the first game of the season both times. No, Herman's record at Texas so far is nowhere near Meyer's record at OSU after two years, but Herman faced a much more challenging rebuild. I think it's too early to say Herman isn't a great coach. Let's see what he does over the next two years.