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Wargor


Newark (via Pickerington)

MEMBER SINCE   November 10, 2014

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Recent Activity

Comment 6 hours ago

I was on one day per week from home already, and it is definitely going up from there.  I suspect 2-3 days at home ought to be doable at first.  Less on close week, but that's okay.

Comment 12 hours ago

Far be it from me to rain on anyone's parade (what are you doing having a parade now!?!), but isn't it still Friday?

Comment 17 hours ago

Agreed.  Too many decisions are made in kids' sports for the benefit of the few at the highest levels.  I saw that in soccer when US soccer moved to birth year divisions instead of grade level divisions.  Helped the top 1% of the top 1% be on the same page with the rest of the world's top .01%, hurt everyone else.  Kids wound up with teams disappearing out from under them, parents and coaches scrambling, and plenty of classmates split up, which leads to kids losing interest.  And it isn't like the difference in division splits was hurting the US Women's side of the sport, so unlikely it was the problem on the men's side either.

Comment 02 Apr 2020

Governors should definitely be held accountable, especially to the great standard that DeWine has set.  

That said, the difference between the intelligence resources a governor has vs. the President are massive.  NSA, CIA, CDC, etc.  

And while we may not live in a perfect world, Governors should be able to place some faith in national leadership if it tells them that cases will soon be down to zero or that it is very much under control.  Some governors didn't buy into those platitudes and acted on their own (again, thank you, thank you, Mike DeWine!).  Others, not so much.  We'll never know how DeSantis might have acted differently had he gotten different messages from national leadership, and he alone could have acted like (and when) DeWine did which would have likely saved thousands of lives.  So I'll put a big dollup of blame on his shoulders.  But I also know where the buck is supposed to stop, and between Google and a functioning memory I know what was being said by whom and when.

Comment 01 Apr 2020

Going to be instructive to see the differences between what happens in Florida and what happens in Ohio.  

Our announcement came on Sunday the 22nd, theirs came 10 days later.  Our number of cases was 351 at the time.  Theirs today is around 7,000.  

Comment 01 Apr 2020

In perspective, we added 912 deaths yesterday.  This thing isn't linear (which cuts both ways), but 912 x 365 is 330K.  Coronavirus is just getting out of the blocks here in the US, and I think it'd be pretty safe money to bet that it is going to outpace car crashes, veteran suicides, and murders by year's end, even with a late comparative start.  Probably do so when you look at those combined.  And as far as flu, correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't that season start in the fall?  So 6 month total vs. the first month of ramp up.

I hope not, but this does look like it is going to measured in the hundreds of thousands.  Hopefully the first number is a one or two, but a three or four isn't crazy talk at this point.  

Comment 01 Apr 2020

I think there will be NFL even if they play in empty stadiums.  Yes, there is some risk to the people there, but we can't be on lock-down forever, and with a combination of good testing by then, at least a start towards heard immunity, and hopefully some treatment methods that can make this less deadly, we'll be heading back towards normal enough to allow games to be played.  

Emphasis on 'I think'

Comment 01 Apr 2020

National leadership was saying this in late February:

“And again, when you have 15 people, and the 15 within a couple of days is going to be down to close to zero, that’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”

“So we’re at the low level. As they get better, we take them off the list, so that we’re going to be pretty soon at only five people. And we could be at just one or two people over the next short period of time. So we’ve had very good luck.”

“We have it very much under control in this country.”

“The Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA. We are in contact with everyone and all relevant countries. CDC & World Health have been working hard and very smart. Stock Market starting to look very good to me!”

So how much culpability should I be laying at the feet of local officials for early February comments when they were being assured that everything was under control all the way through late February?  I'll put some on them to be sure, because I was getting worried around that time frame and started taking my first steps towards getting prepared, but when it comes to being the mayor on Jaws, I know where the buck stops.

Comment 31 Mar 2020

I agree, that was a good call.  Problem is, you need more than one good early call on things like this.  DeWine's been a good model of handling this.  Good forthright information, firm steps taken based on science, and no down-playing of the threat.  Just read an article that mentioned how we are 15th in the country for cases.  That's with three major cities and a population that ranks 7th.  

Comment 31 Mar 2020

I tend to agree with you, but for devil's advocate sake, if they were overwhelmed in their health care, they might have had the mortality rate that Italy is seeing, and thus, you wouldn't need 100 million cases.  Maybe 20-40 million cases.  

Not saying they could hide that either, but just thinking about it some.

Comment 31 Mar 2020

No.  Anyone who falls into the category you mentioned that isn't A) Kirk Herbstreit, B) The NCAA, or C) James Franklin is either political or dangerously close to political.  

*  I would have included Harbaugh in that list, but I can't imagine any Buckeye being unhappy with the job he's doing.

Comment 30 Mar 2020

I feel bad for Nigerian Princes who are on quarantine and just need some help to release their fortunes.  I mean, it isn't like they can get out of the palace and go to the bank.

Comment 30 Mar 2020

That stat probably doesn't factor in single parent households which definitely count when thinking about the economic pressures we face and will face.

Alternative response: 72% of statistics are made up on the spot, just not that one.  ;)

Comment 30 Mar 2020

The social distancing experiment is to stop the 10 to the 4th power exposure risk, not the 10 to the first power. So if you are exposed at work and bring it home it stays at home and is not spread to fifty homes and fifty homes becomes 2500 homes......

I wish more people got this concept.  And not just in this case.  Too many seem to think if something can't be perfect, you shouldn't do it.  "Well, this example wouldn't have been prevented by the measure you suggest, so we shouldn't consider it"  I'll likely say it till the day I die, but humans aren't good at statistical thinking, and that's a real shame when you think about how we have 7+ billion of them on this globe and statistics is the only way to make sense of many of the forces that impact those people.  

Comment 30 Mar 2020

Looks to me like they are getting a lump sum of money printed up and 'borrowed' at very little cost.  What that does to the value of the dollar or our position as the world's reserve currency will remain to be seen.  

You seem to be assuming that when the quarantine is over, everyone will head back to work, but I'm not so sure.  It took us 7 years to get back to the unemployment rate we had in 2008, and that was with stimulus and industry saving bailouts.  Economics isn't an exact science, and it devolves real quick into politics, which we should avoid, but I don't see tax cuts being enough to get us out of the ditch we're going to find ourselves in.  Also, cutting taxes isn't the only tool in the box, and is something we already did to get us out of the economic crisis of 2017.  I can see tax cuts being something to put into play after we're out of the rut and trying to build up speed, but right now we need to stave off financial ruin for tens of millions.  Then we'll need to spark some demand, and later still, we'll need to boost us up to speed.  When all that is done, hopefully we'll be smart enough to bank a little when the economy is running smooth again.  Our history since at least the 80's indicates that we won't though.

Comment 30 Mar 2020

Hard to see that helping all the workers who are getting laid off.  You need income to benefit from tax cuts.  

Government: "Hey Joe Restaurant Owner, your taxes have been cut 90%!"

Joe Restaurant Owner: "Well, since revenue is down 60% and my fixed expenses are higher than the remaining 40%, Coronavirus cut my taxes by 100%!  On a related note, I cut the taxes of most of my workforce by 100% too!  Boost to the economy in 3...2...1..."