Would like to see this stat for all OSU losses in the last few years... suspect we'd see a similar trend.
Unfortunately, we don't get a chance for revenge until 2020... unless we both crack the B1G championship game in '18 or '19
Yes, head-to-head is one of the four criteria used to differentiate similar teams. But conf championship is another of the four.
In the scenario of the Buckeyes, Bama, and Oklahoma fighting for the last two spots... there's no way the two spots go to the two NON-conference champs with each losing their last game played.
Don't get me wrong, I like our chances if we beat Wiscy this weekend regardless, but they're certainly improved if TCU wins as well.
TCU winning definitely helps the Buckeyes. If Oklahoma wins now, they're in and 3 of 4 spots are certain. If TCU wins, only 2 of 4 spots are certain (SEC and ACC). I don't think TCU would have a chance to jump us as we'd each add quality wins and a conf championship and we've been ahead of them in the rankings all year.
So I'd think we'd have 2 spots for three teams -- Okla, Bama, and the Buckeyes. I like the chance of the Big Ten champs getting ONE of those.
I enjoy this column weekly as it delivers the content is such a streamlined and succinct fashion, with just enough scarlet shading. If I could make one small request/suggestion: to include the rankings in brackets next to the teams. IMO it would enhance the read.
Well said... I think this summarizes it perfectly.
None taken - it's just a site with a decent predictive track record. The fact you can play around with different scenarios and have actual probabilities spit out the other end is somewhat fun :-).
I actually believe TCU winning out (i.e., beating OU in championship game) is a much better scenario for us than OU winning out. Obviously will be difficult given last weekend.. but from a pure rooting interest perspective: Bama and TCU should be our two favorite teams going forward.
If you check out the FiveThirtyEight predictions, it calcs this out: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/
Puts us at 87% chance if those two win out... and is actually quite indifferent to the Miami/Clemson game.
While I agree "seeding" provides some incentive, it's nothing compared to the importance of the last two weeks in the current format. Take OSU for example. A win vs. Indiana this week (or MSU loss) and we clinch the the B1G East Division. In the current scenario, we still have everything to play for vs. TSUN. With automatic qualifiers, regardless of the outcome of TSUN game (while it may have a small bearing on seeding), we beat Wiscy and we go to the nat'l playoffs. I never want be in a situation where I say "regardless of the TSUN game"...
Agree this would be ideal; however, there is no way we would be able to jump FSU. An alternative possibility, while still preserving the match-ups/bowls/traditions, would be: 1.) Oregon, 2.) Bama; 3.) FSU; 4) OSU.
My objection to conference champions gaining an automatic bid is the diminutive effect on the final few weeks of regular season games. These next two weeks of college football provide some of the most exciting and nerve-wracking viewing experiences in all of sports, with often teams playing for everything to lose. Concurrently, this is when teams begin to clinch births into conference championships.
If a team can guarantee a birth into the playoffs with a conference championship win, and has clinched a spot in their conference title, a loss in these final two weeks has little-to-no post season consequence (compared to now when entire nat'l championship aspirations are crushed year-after-year during rivalry week). It's the same reason NFL teams sit players during the final few weeks (not implying this would happen; however, why risk potential injury during the final two regular season games when they have no bearing on your chance at playing for a national championship?). Not to mention, it also diminishes the importance of OoC games at the beginning (and end) of the year--likely leading to less compelling scheduling. Finally, thus far, I have personally enjoyed the debates surrounding the top four teams.
and Carlos flying out of the backfield like a steamroller
My theme song for the wknd... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DS0YyPaFNuY