Trapper99's picture

Trapper99


MEMBER SINCE   December 16, 2016

Recent Activity

Comment 26 Mar 2020

Probably: Roth and purchase SPY

Wish: Another PVS14 (cause wizard eyes are awesome)

Comment 23 Mar 2020

I think whether people choose to stay at home or deem there business essential comes down to $$$. It's a risk vs reward. The risk of not working and being in financial ruins is worse than the virus some will deem....

Comment 23 Mar 2020

We seem to be hovering at the high end of the projections 3-4% mortality range..

I think this is a bit high as doctors are saying they are only testing a fraction of those showing symptoms. In calculating the mortality rate, the denominator is unknown at this time, but it is definitely more than what is known. How much more is the question...... 

Once the pandemic is over, they will use formulas to calculate how many were exposed/infected vs the death rate much like they did with the Swine Flu, and the seasonal flu every year. 

I hope we don't have a 3-4% mortality. That will kill tens of millions worldwide. At 3% mortality, and 10% of the population contracting the virus, that's 21mil deaths. 

Comment 23 Mar 2020

It should be pointed out that these numbers are only accurate via confirmed test. It will be interesting if they come out with a test to test for antibodies. When this is all over, I wouldn't be surprised if the exposure rates across all countries is estimated to be similar as we develop herd immunity. The only difference will be deaths will be higher in countries with crappy medical.

My wife is Ukrainian, and her parents still live in Ukraine. In general, they aren't testing so their confirmed cases are low. I have a friend who's wife is Russian, and she still lives in Russia. It is the same situation there. That doesn't mean the virus isn't as prevalent  there as it is here.

Comment 23 Mar 2020

Good question, and I will give my honest opinion since this is the "judgement free zone"! Over the last couple days, my opinion has swung from "eh, I understand these shutdowns and it was probably the right thing to do" to now where I am much more leaning toward the impending economic collapse could be far more worse than what the virus could cause. At first, I understood the shutdowns cause it all seemed centered around it being 2 weeks. Now it's obvious 2 weeks won't stop the virus. It will either be seasonal virus, or we will have to acquire herd immunity. I understand the "flatten the curve" principle, but while you ask a question about "what is the number of dead" I ask "what is the acceptable amount of time to grind the economy into the ground and is it worth a recession/depression. 

As to answer your question, my barometer for a number is the Swine Flu of 2009(?). That was 12.5k dead domestic, and there was no mass freakout about that. For me, we have to eclipse that by a significant amount (like multiple times that) before my opinion will change back.