tcm1968's picture

tcm1968


MEMBER SINCE   May 04, 2012

Recent Activity

Comment 23 Mar 2020

I hope to heck we don't head down that path but if we did it would involve sending the most vulnerable around the country strategically to different cities so you don't overburden one city or cities. You get people in place in corona centers and then infect everyone and and go from there in a controlled environment that can handle that. If you get to that point the problem with a place like NYC isn't people dying, it's a numbers problem.. too many people in one place.. too many people under 60/50/40/30 would die because they couldn't help anyone because of vulnerable numbers. You get people from big cities like NYC to Charlotte or Columbus or Indianapolis and spread the people around... that gives the most vulnerable people the best chance of making it through this thing and other people who get this a chance in their cities because they have space and doctors and nurses to care for them..

Dark thoughts...

Would have to see the numbers but the cost of health care vs the cost of forcing anyone over 70 to retire with some sort of new pay might be pretty close.. getting the over 70 out of the work force wouldn't be full proof but would probably significantly cut down cases..

Go Bucks!

Comment 23 Mar 2020

Yeah, they have the double whammy.. so much of their income today is tied to people coming to the State. Just saw a stat that close to 160M people visit to the tune of around 30B per year. Even if you open up the beaches, Disney and cruises you still need people from out of State to bring in money.. They couldn't give cruises away in late Feb and I'd guess that's not going to change anytime soon...

The elderly thing could be interesting..  short term that makes sense if you are just looking at the bottom line... but long term you wonder what the effect would be on east coast and midwest folks thinking maybe we'll go to SC or NC instead.. 

No easy decisions for the governor down there.. that's for sure.

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Comment 23 Mar 2020

Explain how the death rate of the coronavirus is not 42,076 people tested positive and of those people 570 people have died.

The death rate for people testing positive is simple math.  1% percent of USA citizens who tested positive have died from this thing. 

You keep wanting to add in a variable that we haven't tested everyone... that has NOTHING to do with death rate from positive tests. NOTHING.

As of today, real time... 100 people test positive for this thing math says 1 of them will die.. 

What on earth is hysterical about 1 in 100 positive tests ending in death?? 

if you want to make the argument a month from now those numbers will be wrong, that's fine... but that's not the math real time today..

Go Bucks!

Comment 23 Mar 2020

I think you could make a pretty good case Dobbins would be a better fit on the Arizona Cardinals.. Their depth chart is basically Kenyan Drake. Chiefs prefer pass to run and Cards much more balanced..  Dobbins could be an every down back in Arizona. In KC probably entire series he wouldn't see the field.. 

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Comment 23 Mar 2020

Good news is looks like most countries starting to flatten ( with cases) with exception of USA. Very important to watch Hong Kong. They did a great job early on but then as they have released restrictions you can see they are starting to track the wrong way again over the past few days..

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Comment 23 Mar 2020

Stay At Home doesn't seem to be really working. People are still leaving their homes. Even if it's just within the rules like Costco you still end up with hundreds of people in Costco. Not to mention all the people who aren't staying within the rules..

We're headed to one of two destinations.... we actually jump to lockdowns/martial law or we do this soft lockdown thing and release everyone back into society and just let it trim the herd..  One toe into the pool like we are doing now won't stop the spreading and it won't help with the economy. You got to either let the economy roar back and take your chances or lock every down and lock the spreading down.. that decision is going to come early April..

Go Bucks!

Comment 23 Mar 2020

And we only include flu stats of people who actually go to the doctor and get diagnosed with the flu despite millions of other people having it.. you can't do math with "what ifs". That's not how it works... we've tested x and x have died... same formula we use with the flu.. and every other virus/disease. 

I don't understand why people are struggling with this.. THIS IS NOT THE FLU. It's not even close.  if 31M Americans test positive for this thing there's going to be a LOT MORE deaths then the seasonal flu (30k)

We just hit 500 deaths... 

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Comment 23 Mar 2020

USA has 4% of the worlds population and we now have hit 11% of the cases and counting.. Sadly, we are outpacing our population.

So far the mortality rate for the globe is .04% making this thing 40x the flu ( flu mortality rate is .1), right now.. 

31M Americans got the flu last year and 30K passed away from it... 

So far 39,000 have tested positive for this in the USA and 471 have died.. And a number of the 39,000 will die in the days ahead..

We seem to be hovering at the high end of the projections 3-4% mortality range..

This isn't the flu....

Go Bucks!

Comment 23 Mar 2020

Washington State wouldn't crack the top 100 in terms of countries using population. Now has more cases than Australia which has almost 4x as many people. More cases than Canada which has almost 6x the population..

USA has 4% of the worlds population and we now have 11% of the cases and counting..

Because we didn't acting fast enough and strict enough we are on a speeding train for 1 in 4 people with this thing being in the USA.. Outpacing our population vs the planet by 6X..

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Comment 22 Mar 2020

I ask this with no judgement... everyone has to do what they think is best.... but for the folks still on the fence about this whole thing.. maybe it's you don't believe it, it's overblown, won't hit your city... whatever.... no judgement.... but..

A question..... at what point do you change your opinion? What's the tipping point?  1000 people dead? 10,000? 100,000? Just curious at what point do you go from on the fence or not even near the fence to... ruh-roh.. ?

Go Bucks!

Comment 22 Mar 2020

It's pretty real... We have a U.S. Influenza Surveillance System ( yes, that's a real thing).. they coordinate will all States to track number of cases, clusters, strains etc.. if you see a Doc for the flu the CDC knows about it... they also track things like nyquil and cough drop sales and factor those in...

While they can't know the number of people who don't go to the doctor who do have the flu they are still gathering mountains of data..

Go Bucks!

Comment 22 Mar 2020

I do not..

One of the positives that will come out of this is flu deaths will drop dramatically. Everyone with a cough/sniffle has been going to the Doctor instead of waiting weeks for it to just get better...

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Comment 22 Mar 2020

Can't imagine what that would be like for a 4 year old.. guessing not good. The test thing is tricky because once they get to the point they are just going to send you home there's no point. They should be telling you go home and act like everyone in your house has it.   They have so few tests that they have to use them on people they are admitting to either rule or rule in this thing.. sad reality.. 

Small victories :) but being in the system already has to be a little comforting... they thought you were okay to go home so that's got to be a little relief I would think..

Stay safe!!!!!!!

Go Bucks!

Comment 22 Mar 2020

Echoing this... CDC guidelines are at least 7 days after first signs of symptoms and 3 straight days of no fevers WITHOUT fever reducing medicine.

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Comment 22 Mar 2020

The 1918 Influenza Pandemic was 100 years ago and is a pretty good playbook for what not to do.... and we keep making some of the same mistakes they did back in 1918. And I guess in 2118 or whatever will make some of the same mistakes we're making right now and made in Feb and continue to make near the end of the March..

Go Bucks!

Comment 22 Mar 2020

Flu kills .1 of the people who get it.. this is nothing like that... we're going to end up 10x-20x the flu and in certain areas much worse than that.. Flu deaths jump out to people because of volume..  31M had the flu this year through Feb and that doesn't count the number of folks who got it more than once..  and flu is almost always neglect.. "I'll get better"... there's no fix for this thing right now..

We've had 33,000 people test positive for this thing so far and 417 of those folks are dead...  imagine what those numbers look like if 31M test positive... that's not the flu...

Go Bucks!

Comment 22 Mar 2020

Dr Fauci said on tv yesterday he's thinks it has a 10x capability worse than the flu mortality rate and then he followed that up with that's probably a low number., it's probably higher than 10x.

Flu death rate is .1 so 1 percent would be 10x greater... we are at 4% right now with this thing which currently would make that 40X the flu ( those numbers will come down as we test of course).

Go Bucks!

Comment 22 Mar 2020

That's going to be a part of the problem. This is clearly going to hit some areas harder.  Do you play a B10 schedule without Rutgers? Is that even legally possible?

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