straha's picture

straha


MEMBER SINCE   October 31, 2017

Recent Activity

Comment 02 Dec 2019

Reading their TigerBeat, or TigerDroppings or what ever their fan forum is called, I think the LSU fan base may be nearly as deluded as ttun's.  We haven't played anyone, our D is trash the way we gave up 27 to UM and PSU, we're paper tigers, media is out to get them, PSU is the B1G Kentucky equivalent, all that crap.  And somehow they feel as if they have been more dominant, that their D is great... It's almost as if they are in some alternate reality.

Comment 30 Nov 2019

I want Minnesota.  We already beat Wiscy, so give me a different opponent.  10 wins vs 10 different B1G teams.  That is true domination.

Comment 29 Nov 2019

Past games where I have felt nervous were nerves largely borne from seeing the flaws in our team.  This year, there have just not been any serious or fatal flaws that we have managed to coast through that would inevitably bite us in the ass.  That is what is so different about this team.  This is as fundamentally sound of a team that I can ever remember seeing.  Of course there is the possibility we could lose.  Not going to deny that, but there is absolutely nothing to point to as a concern of something that could be the weak point, that could bite us in the ass.

Comment 27 Nov 2019

TTUN still has a path to the Rose Bowl if they win, so they do have that to lose.

Comment 21 Nov 2019

It would be a great game plan if they were playing that Buckeye team.  Not so much this one.

Again, all indications are at this point in time that the weather will largely be a non factor in this game.  Especially in the context of what we have actually seen from this season so far.

Comment 21 Nov 2019

I think for those who are fretting about the impending wash out and great equalizer that will cause the Buckeyes to completely forget how to play football, if we blow the doors off in the first half, the second half sprinkles may as well be on our victory cupcakes.


In other words, the weather should be just fine.

Comment 20 Nov 2019

They were loaded with talent, but were also prone to unforced stupid penalties, and LOTS of them.  They were also prone to getting gashed on defense by multiple big plays every game.  This 2019 team has virtually no similarities to that 2017, and even the 2018 team.

Comment 20 Nov 2019

I can tell you that a winter storm prediction 10 days out has never come from my office :D

Can't really help what the companies who monetize weather information do, though I do think a lot of their information is presented in a deliberately misleading, and almost predatory way.  Gotta give the customers something to keep them coming to you rather than your competitor.

I somewhat get your point, but at some point, I think it is up to the individual to actually know what to do with the information they have.

Comment 20 Nov 2019

Day 10 forecast
TTUN going to Indy and the CFP

One of those is far more accurate than the other...

Comment 20 Nov 2019

The general public has no idea where the forecasts come from, what are reliable sources, and what could just be some random person on the internet who can make pretty pictures in photoshop.  To the general public, they are all the same and have the same assumed level of authority.  Social media and the instant creation and flow of information only exacerbates that.

I like that you picked winter weather specifically, because I completely agree with you.  It's also my primary forecasting focus.  Winter weather is far more complicated to forecast to the level of accuracy assumed during summer.  Especially during the fall and spring transitions where the models can struggle.  Where the notable weather events switch from primarily summer frontal to winter low pressure center driven.  Winter weather events also tend to have much broader and longer duration geographical impact with potential for considerable variation across the impacted area.  Depending on layer depth, a three degree variation in surface temps can be the difference between rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow.

Where things come off the rails for the general public is that they latch onto a long term forecast, then the heavy snow band tracks thirty miles further north than where they live, they get one inch rather than the six in the heavy band, they see the forecast busted, even though the NWS forecast discussion from that morning was spot on, as was the winter weather advisory we issued.

Another struggle is that people have become so accustomed to having information available not only instantaneously, but well in advance, and tend not to recheck things.  Add to that notion that anything other than 100% perceived perfection is seen as a failure.

Comment 20 Nov 2019

Didn't really impact our game against Wiscy much.  167 yards passing, 2 TD...against a much better passing defense, in much rainier and windier conditions.  We'll be fine.

Comment 20 Nov 2019

Short term 72 hours and especially 24 hours and less is extremely accurate.  I think my biggest frustration is that forecasting is seen almost as voodoo and witchcraft because the science and mathematics behind it is not something that can be easily understood well at even underclassmen collegiate level courses.  It is not necessarily something that is intuitive.  Plus there is so much "conventional wisdom" and outright mockery of the profession that is perpetuated.  Heyuck, what other job can you be wrong most of the time and still get paid...kind of stuff.  Add to it that not all forecast sources are equal, yet the NWS, AMS, Weather Channel, Accuweather, every local TV and radio weather personality, home town news papers, are all lumped in together.

/rant

Comment 20 Nov 2019

Except it's not.  I say that as a senior meteorologist out of an NWS office in the midwest.  OSU degree class of 1999.

Comment 20 Nov 2019

Against Purdue specifically?  No, of course not, but we knew that we were very vulnerable to big plays, both passing and running.  We knew we struggled offensively in both the running and passing games at times.  We knew that stupid unforced penalties were an issue.  Put any two of those together in the same game, and we were going to lose, likely in spectacular fashion.  It was an inevitability.

This year, not so much.

Comment 20 Nov 2019

Well, looking at the final offensive stats for the OSU-Wiscy game, they are pretty much in line with every other game.  Maybe a slight drop off in Fields' completion %, but nothing to really indicate that the weather had a significant impact on that game.