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SE_CT Bucknut

Member since 26 August 2014 | Blog

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Comment 29 Jun 2016
One of the things that is missing in our conversation about Steele's analysis is the respect he has for the talent. Returning six starters and starting out ranked sixth? That's a compliment to the stockpile of talent. Lots of folks are ignoring that. Personally, I would rather start talent than return 100% of the snaps on a middling team (like scUM). In a perfect world you return starting talent, but with what Meyer is bringing in, I don't expect to see many teams with returning senior starters.
Comment 28 Jun 2016
Baseball is a game of stats because the large sample sizes support them. One of my favorites to evaluate a team is run differential. The tribes excellent run diff actually suggests that they are head and shoulders better than KC and have been a bit unlucky in the WL column.
Comment 07 Jun 2016

In the books Beric Dondarion gives his life so that they may resurect Catelyn Stark (AKA Lady Stoneheart).  One would presume that she is now running the show, and she is now, somehow... different!

Here is the pertininent text:

A Feast for Crows

Thoros reveals to Brienne of Tarth that Beric truly died when he gave his life to bring back Catelyn Tully, whose body had been found by the outlaws after the Red Wedding. The brotherhood has fractured with the change in leadership, with some leaving the outlaw band.

Comment 06 Jun 2016

Pretty boring episode last night.  It is cool that they brought the Hound back, but am I the only one that would like to see them start consolidating the stories some.  There is only 15ish episodes left, at what point are some of these stories going to start going away in the interest of resolution?  There are a lot of seemingly unrelated stories that need to come back to tie into the final story arc or just go away and be resolved.  That would make episodes like last nights seem less wandering.

I acknowledge though that it is hard to know which story lines are "wasted" because you don't really know where the story is going and part of that is because some of these side story lines feel like they are going to resolve or comeback to the main story arc, but then don't and that is part of the beauty of the show.  That said, last night's episode was one of the worst in a long time.

Comment 05 Jun 2016

I hope Sibley comes and camps at OSU and makes himself a must take for the Buckeyes.

As for the rest of this, it is a by-product of the recruiting world these days where coaches are guessing where a guy is going to develop to at a very young age, and sometimes, they don't end up being what the coaches thought, or other/better options become available.  That is what happens when you have to start offering kids scholarships during their freshman and sophomore years.  I think OSU probably regrets both Clark and Sibley's offers at this point.  They are both guys that they offered too early in a year where they just don't have space.

Kids can and do decommit from colleges all the time and we typically say, "the kid needs to do what's right for him."  In this case, the school decommitted from the kid, but at least they did it in a way that the kid was not left high and dry.  Crappy situation, that I think we all wish didn't happen, but it is the situation and honestly, it may be best for Sibley's future Play time (or who knows maybe he develops like the staff originally thought and becomes an All American).

Regardless of what happens with Akers or Harris, I think OSU is fine at RB with just Dobbins and Sibley's spot may actually mean the difference for a guy at another spot where OSU may be in an unexpectedly good situation with an elite prospect (WR, LB, QB come to mind).  Numbers are tight and OSU doesn't NEED 2 RBs in this class, it is a luxury at this point.

Comment 22 Apr 2016

They could spend all of season 6 looking back in time through Bran's eyes to fill in the back stories and it would still be one of the best seasons ever.  There are so many untold/undertold stories that it could easily fill multiple seasons and make compelling TV.  I don't think that is going to happen, but it is pretty clear that they are going to go back in time at least some in season six.

There are lots of rumors about a retelling of the Tower of Joy where Eddard killed Arthur Dayne and found his dying sister Lyanna.  Personally, I think that is where we will find out that Jon Snow is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna and that she died in child birth.  Eddard kept it quiet because Lyanna was supposed to go to Robert, but instead chose Rhaegar and Jon Snow is their secret love child.

I think it is pretty common knowledge at this point that Jon Snow will be resurrected (presumably by Melissandre).  Interesting thought here, his vows to the Night's Watch are until death... technically he has died, therefore, his obligation is met... right?

Comment 15 Apr 2016

OMG, you mean two songs played at about the same tempo on an acoustic guitar in A minor with a descending baseline sound similar?  Holy Crap!  The chords are arpeggiated (the finger picking pattern) and Stairway employs a counter melody which is really what makes it a better composition to my ear.

I am no LZ fanboy, but this is a little silly.  Lots of songs have similar progressions and are played in similar time and therefore sound similar, but you really cannot copywrite a chord progression.

The Axis of Awesome video is a great representation of that.

Comment 11 Mar 2016
Neil Young is my favorite musician and songwriter. He just speaks to me in a raw, unrefined way (like Cobain) that appeals to me no matter what my mood. Sometimes this happens to you for periods/phases of your life, but I have been in a Neil Young phase since I was 15.
Comment 11 Mar 2016

My guess is that Zeke will be in the low 4.3's if he runs and Marshall will be in the low 4.5s, but I am sure these times are much more accurate than the Combine :)

Jalin made a huge mistake, his PR duties might make him a 6-7th rounder, my money is on UDFA and then a fight to make a roster.

Comment 11 Mar 2016

These WHAC times are always crap.  No offense to Braxton, love the kid, but there is nothing wrong with a 4.50 and frankly the number doesn't really matter as much as how it ranks against his peers and even then it still isn't the be all and end all.  Anyone who has seen Braxton play could tell you he is a 4.50 kind of guy, he is fast, but not Ginn fast.  Braxton could be run down from behind, it happened on several occassions. 

By the same token his shuttles and three cone are exactly what would have expected too.  He was extremely impressive in the "quickness" drills.  So the combine proved what we already knew, Braxton is quicker than he is fast.  I don't think he made a dollar based on his 40 time because a 4.5 for a guy that is as quick as Miller is more than fast enough for a guy that is quick enough to beat the best CBs.

I just can't help but snicker every time people flip out over Buckeyes running ridiculous times at the WHAC, sorry Miller is not 4.33 fast.  The fact that Miller and Thomas were both about the same difference faster just shows that it is a fast track, they are what their numbers say.  I really think he made his money at the Senior Bowl practices when he made the scouts jaws drop with his ability to gain separation, and that does not take 4.33 speed.

Comment 09 Mar 2016

I got back into the gym in June of 2015 after about a ten year hiatus from serious lifting.  I have always been a bigger guy, so I started at a fairly decently in shape 232.  Worked my way up to 261 by January while dropping 4 inches on my waste (40" to 36"), and I am now currently cutting for summer (back down to 244).

I am not an expert by any means, but I have learned a lot of things along this journey that I thought I would share:

1.  Your diet is everything.  I have always worked out (although the last 10 years it has been sporadic), and I always made some gains, but never as explosive as I have in the last year.  The advice about your Macro split above is spot on.  My diet for bulking was 3400 calories using 40:30:30 (protein, Fat, Carb) split, which for me came out to about 340g of protein per day.  That is a lot so you need the whey in order to get it more easily (and avoid eating 100 chicken breasts per day).  My cutting intake is 2750 calories, but I had to tweak up my protein a bit in my macros to 50:25:25 to keep my protein up around 340g per day.

2.  I am trying to gain size and "beach muscles" so X-fit is really not for me.  I use an old-school style body builder work out split and it has been very effective.  I started with an "intermediate split" of  Chest and Tris on Monday and Thursday, Back and Bis on Tuesday and Friday, shoulders and legs on Wednesday and Saturday.  Once I really hit my stride after about 2 months I went to a more advanced workout split:  Chest Monday, Back Tuesday, Legs Wednesday, Shoulders Thursday, Arms Friday, Legs or Back on Saturday.  At first glance it looks like this split is easier, but it is really in the amount of volume you are using.  In the intermediate split I would do 3 exercises per body part.  With the advanced split, I work them until they are completely wasted... sometimes that can be 6-8 different exercises.

3.  I have adhered to the old body builder adage of doing your heavy compound lifts first.  For example on Chest day I will do Flat Bench for power rep range (5 sets of 5 reps, AKA 5x5, or low rep pyramids), then declines in the hypertropic rep range (4X8), then inclines (dumbells) (4X8), Dips (4X15), then cable flies (4X15 or failure), cable iron crosses (4X12-15).  In order to work things equally I will switch around the order and do inclines for power or some other iteration, but the cable work always ends up last.

4.  If I am feeling particularly strong, I use drop sets to really crush it, although beware of dropsets on compound movements (bench/squat etc.) as that will probably crush your ability to do any isolation work.

5.  Supplements are important, but not the be all end all.  If you are serious about adding muscle you MUST take in a lot of protein and the only realistic way to get 340 grams of protein a day is through whey supplements.  Creatine is useful and I recommend it, cycling creatine is back out of fashion, take 5g pre and post work out.  Preworkouts are fun, but largely only good for getting "amped."  If you read the label you will see most pre-workouts are largely just stimulants and vaso-dilaters (NO).  There are a lot of people selling products that frankly you don't need.  BCAAs and Glutamine are perfect examples.  If you are getting enough protein you are almost certainly getting enough BCAAs and Glutamine.  I have supplemented both and have noticed 0 difference in recovery or growth.

6.  If you want to get big, lift heavy.  There are all sorts of guides out there that will tell you to work your negative at 2-4 seconds, and 1-2 seconds on the lift, and hold the contraction for 1-2 seconds.... That works for some muscle groups better than others (at least in my experience).  That is exactly how I lift back and biceps.  That said, my chest and tris (extensors) really only respond to big numbers.  I use things like GVT here and there when my training feels stagnant, but generally speaking I keep my reps and sets somewhere around 4X8-10.

7.  Stop looking at the scale, weight is just a number.  I am not saying "healthy at any weight" but have you ever seen skinny fat? or known a women that had a phenomenal hard body?  Odds are the hardbody woman outweighs the skinny fat one by 20lbs but certainly looks better.  Pick better metrics.... Take measurements (waist, arms, thighs, chest, etc.), take a monthly progress photo, track your "vascularity."  Whatever, but don't step on the scale daily and think it means something about your conditioning.

8.  Last but not least, if it isn't working, change it.  If you aren't getting sore anymore do different things, make your body and muscles adapt.  That is when you get growth.  In order to be effective at "changing it" you have to understand it, so read up and get smarter.  It is way easier to do that now.  When I was a kid, I had to wait for the new edition of Flex or Muscle and Fitness (or whatever).  Now, with the web, all that info is available and it is free.  Just watch your source. has been a good resource for me and I recommend Jim Stoppani (google him) as a place to start learning, particularly about nutrition.

Above all stick with it, there will be big gains and plateaus, but don't get so caught up on the end result that you don't enjoy the journey to fitness.  I love training and feel a lot better now that I have cleaned up my diet and health.  If you don't enjoy the training, you will FAIL before you get to your goals.

Comment 25 Jan 2016

You see this behavior from coaches a lot in close recruiting battles... kid announces a decision is made, announces a decision date and even before the decision is announced the staff starts looking in a different direction.

Just because the kid hasn't announced his decision publicly yet does not mean that that he has not informed the coaches.  So before we start jumping up and down and swearing that Meyer took Harrison or Burns over Bruce, we should at least acknowledge the possibility that coach might have been informed that Bruce isn't coming.

Comment 25 Jan 2016

Maybe, the committable offer just came through because the staff got updated news from Bruce that he was sticking with his Canes commitment? 

We need to get away from panicking about stars, there are lots of 3 star guys that kill it:  Elflein and Powell are two more that no one has mentioned above.  Remember, when Urban began recruiting Elliot seriously (and turning away Derrick Green), Green was the concensus #1 RB and 5* and at that time Elliot was a lower 4*.  He went up the rankings because of OSUs interest and his senior year.  4* and 5* recruits are going to have a higher hit rate, but nothing is assured.  Generally the coaches have a much better feel for the intangibles and the fit, and that is almost as important as the 40 time.

Comment 17 Nov 2015

Easy Choice:  PSU.

PSU beats scum, then scUM has 2 losses.  Gives us an open road to the conference championship game if we beat Sparty, and indirectly keeps our playoff hopes alive in the event OSU were to somehow lose in the little house.

I have a feeling some crazy stuff is going to happen over the next couple of weeks and during the CCGs so we could see some large movement.  Some of the crazy stuff:  I could see Clemson losing to UNC, ND losing to Stanford, Ok St losing to Oklahoma (heck the entire B12 could have 2 losses), so OSU making the playoffs after dropping a game at Ann Arbor is not impossible (just unlikely), but they must win the CCG to even be in the conversation.  PSU beating scUM helps meet that end as an insurance policy.

Comment 17 Nov 2015

Std. Dev. can't be per rush with those means. Leonard Fournette's average is 6.24 and minimum is -5. The first standard deviation only encapsulates 65% of the data or 32.5 on either side of the mean. (Numbers may be slightly off as I haven't done too much statistical analysis in the past few years). Thus, the first standard deviation below the mean with a standard deviation of 11.15 would go all the way to -4.91. I doubt that 17.5% of Leonard Fournette's runs occur between -5 and -4.91 yards, and it would be statistically impossible for the second standard deviation to go all the way down to 10 below minimum with this sample size.

You have a concept error here...  The distribution is not built around the existing data, the distribution predicts the data.  The point that you make (regarding 17.5% between -4.91 and -5) underscores why this is the wrong model.  The STDEV is per rush, but it is a poor model of the actual predicted outcomes.  The second STDEV would go all the way down to -15 which would indicate a very low probability of runs below -15 yards (~3.5%).  The fact that Fournette doesn't have a single carry outside of 2 STDEVs doesn't mean the model is flawed.  The model is flawed because the actual data is likely much more clustered near the mean than this distribution suggests.  I would guess that if you had to use a STD Normal to model this, it would be a very steep Normal with most values within a couple yards of the mean.  The problem is the large outliers (think Zeke's 3TDs vs. IU) are distorting the STD DEV significantly and making it much too large.  That is why I would remove the outliers and account for that data another way.

Comment 17 Nov 2015

Variance is square of the distance that an item statistically is from the mean.  So you calculate it by taking the mean, then taking each of the individual values and subtracting it from the mean then squaring the result.  You add this up for each of the individual values, then divide the entire sum by the total number of data points.

In this case Zeke has a mean of 142.5 yards per game, so it would look like this (for the first few games):  (122-142.5)^2 + (101-142.5)^2 + (108-142.5)^2.... you sum all of those together for the entire season and you get a really big number.  Then you divide that number by the number of games (10) and you get a Variance of 2744.944 (easiest to do this in excel).  The standard deviation is the square root of the variance and is much more statistically useful.  In this case the standard deviation is 52.4.  So it is pretty clear that both of those stats (variance and STDEV) are per rush.

This means that if we assume that Zeke's performances are "Normally distributed" (standard bell curve)...  that we can expect Zeke's outcomes to be within one standard deviation of the mean (+ or -1) 68% of the time.  So there is a 68% probability that zeke will rush between 90 and 195 yards.  There are serious flaws with the assumption, and therefore this would be dumb.  One major flaw is the Normal distribution... there are different variables in play (defense of the team he is playing against) so the normal is not necessarily appropriate.  Additionally, there is still not a statistically relevant sample size to cause convergence, would like to see more like 30 data points.

The per rush data (STD Dev and Var) are probably a little more relevant as there certainly is enough data to be statistically relevant, but again, the Normal assumption is not great.  All we can get out of this data using the Normal Distribution is that 68% of the time Zeke's runs will be between -4 and 18 yards.... I would guess (not going to analyze the data) that more like 95% of his runs fall in that window.  If I were analyzing this data officially, I would subtract the outliers from the data set (runs outside of one STDEV or some other parameter) that are badly skewing the STDEV or Var.  I would account for those using some new parameter called % explosive plays or something like that, as a statement of the relative "explosive ability of the running backs."

You could also attempt to use some more "exotic" distributions that tend to reduce the effect of head/tail (outlier) probability events like the Cauchy.  Standing by to answer any other math questions.

Comment 31 Aug 2014

I think the author is crazy for not liking the DL play.  Washington and Bennett were awesome in that game and Bosa was sound too.  I think Darron Lee is going to be a star, and not just because he picked up a fumble.  He played pretty well and flashed all over the field.  He made some mistakes, but he made some great plays too.

Triple Option is a tough gig and Navy runs it beautifully.  Every player on the field for Navy is unselfish and blocks in a way that I wish our guys did.  When you play Navy you are really playing 11 guys on every play.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Navy win 10-11 games this year.  Navy is a good team, and they execute their offense as well or better than anyone else.

Most Impressive:  Washington.  He looked like a top 5 NFL draft pick this week, beating doubles into the backfield and blowing plays up.  He has the size and frame that Mike Bennett is missing.

Most Disappointing:  Elliot.  Granted it was a small sample size, but I was not thrilled and I found myself bummed when he got the ball, as I was wishing those touches would go to Wilson and Samuel.  I think (based on small sample size) that Samuel could end up as the featured back by the end of the year.  He is small, but he runs hard for his size.

Comment 29 Aug 2014

I was in GTMO from 97-00, small world.  Worked at NSGA GTMO.