RunningFree's picture

RunningFree

Sylvania, OH (via Liberty Center, OH)

MEMBER SINCE   July 30, 2013

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  • SPORTS MOMENT: January 3, 2003
  • NFL TEAM: Browns
  • NHL TEAM: Red Wings
  • NBA TEAM: Cavs
  • MLB TEAM: Tigers
  • SOCCER TEAM: Columbus Crew and 'MERICA

Recent Activity

Comment 23 Mar 2020

Further reading that explores various levels of intervention across 16 US Cities and their affects on total cases for 1918 Spanish Flu: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1849868/

Fig 2, chart b is a good thing to look at. The red line indicates our current trajectory if we stay under restrictions for a short term and then open them up (such as schools opening, concert venues and stadiums opening, etc). You have to account for the differences between COVID-19 and the Spanish Flu, but the general shape would remain the same... spike now, another spike later. The second wave of Spanish Flu hit hardest due to a mutation and its disproportionate affect on younger, otherwise healthy people. Whether or not COVID-19 will mutate in any fashion (we hope it will mutate to a weaker strain) is a big 'ole TBD.

Comment 23 Mar 2020

There's a difference between running free with speculation and making a hypothesis based on scientific data. The latter allows people to make proactive decisions instead of being reactive.

Comment 23 Mar 2020

It's not fear when you're being pragmatic, and I actively try to avoid the media. Simply wishing something is overblown doesn't make it so.

And while SARS is in the same family, Swine Flu is not. It's influenza. SARS and SARS-CoV-2 are coronaviruses. SARS was contained early on (we've lost that fight with COVID-19) and the flu is endemic... we'll have it in various forms as long as human life still exists. At the moment there is no concrete proof that CV-19 is slowed by warmer weather -- most countries are experiencing exponential growth regardless of current climate. But even if it's seasonalI'll hold to my initial sentiment that fall is when we'll start to see a new, and potentially worse, wave.

Again, CV-19 is not the flu, but I implore you to research the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic and its deadly fall 1918 wave (after a smaller 1917/18 winter/spring wave). Past viral pandemics of similar transmission vectors can be used as loose predictors of what to expect, and we live an even more connected world so spread is even easier. In addition, look up the September 1918 Philadelphia parade, their approach to closing public gatherings, and its effects on how that city fared during the second pandemic wave. The links below are for scientific articles and provide quick abstracts. 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3730600/ - Looks at waves in the UK and Wales but includes data on the US. It looks at factors (including temperature and changes in human behavior) that most influence those waves.

https://www.pnas.org/content/104/18/7582 - Case study on Philadelphia vs. St Louis in the fall of 1918. You'll notice the death rate graph is a carbon copy of the "flatten the curve" graphs that have been going around lately.

Comment 22 Mar 2020

This is incredibly ignorant. I'll let you guess which season comes after the summer... you know, the season where cold/flu and football seasons share an overlap. It may be that we'll have stopped massive spikes with our efforts in the later spring and summer months, but cramming thousands of people into stadiums will be like dumping gas on a smoldering fire.

Comment 22 Mar 2020

The likely fact that COVID-19 is more deadly than the Spanish Flu (by percentage) even with modernized medicine and before healthcare systems are overrun should give us a major pause for concern. There's a lot of time between now and the fall to see very damaging spikes in cases, even factoring in seasonality.

My fear would be that cramming tens or hundreds of thousands of people into stadiums all across the country is begging for a new wave to begin. At least the one thing we have going for us in this case is the relative lack of (so far) severe and cytokinetic storm cases in young adults. Viruses also have a tendency to change over time. The good news is that the viruses want to live, shifting mutation likelihoods to the weaker yet more easily transmittable forms (think seasonal flu which is with us pretty much forever).

Comment 13 Mar 2020

I have to imagine they'd allow teams a waiver based on the amount of seniors they have.

The real question is how this will affect all remaining underclassmen and incoming freshman, since next year would create quite a logjam especially with team sports. They don't get an extra year of eligibility and would want to maximize what they have left. Could be a wild summer of transfers and appeals to waive waiting times.

Comment 10 Mar 2020

To High Street Street Fighter. We can all debate whether or not shutting things down is an overreaction, but you're are so incredibly wrong it blows my mind. That sort of ignorance has the ability to take something that could be relatively minor and make it into something more dangerous.

It's NOT the flu. The flu is caused by, wait for this, the influenza virus. COVID-19 (ie the coronavirus) is caused by, again really brace yourself for this one, a coronavirus. Two different types of virus.

Many symptoms are similar, but COVID-19 has not been shown to cause a runny nose in most cases. Symptoms are fever, cough, shortness of breath, and sometimes body aches.

And why should people under 70 fucking care about this thing? Because you can still get it even though the severity is limited. You can still spread it and are more likely to because many will think their symptoms "aren't that bad". History has proven that viral spread is often raised by those who only get mild cases.

You don't understand it? Educate yourself, you have no excuse.

Comment 10 Mar 2020

Because the flu is endemic, has a relatively low fatality rate, and we have proven methods to reduce the damage each year (such as vaccines). CV-19 has a much higher fatality rate based on currently available numbers and expert epidemiologists, and has no proven medicines/vaccines other than some inconsistent results from experimental anti-viral drugs. Even the extremely isolated cases of the Diamond Princess cruise ship had a fatality rate 7x that of seasonal flu, and that's on the very low end when compared to other countries.

As proven out west, containment is a past dream so now we move to methods that are pro-active and mitigate the spread before it gets too much of a foothold. Ultimately, the goal is not just limit the spread, but to try and relieve the pressure on hospitals and other healthcare facilities as they have enough to deal with from a bad flu season. What if hospitals get overwhelmed and run out of ICU beds and equipment? You'll see flu deaths increase in addition to skyrocketing CV-19 fatalities and fatality rates.

Comment 25 Feb 2020

This is entirely false, and frankly dangerous to think that way. Based on the cases were aware of, the fatality rate of CV19 is 20 times higher than seasonal flu. I'll be happy to be wrong, but the numbers so far don't tell that story.

CV19 rate: 2-3% (predicted), though China has seen much higher rates near the epicenter. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/)

Seasonal flu rate: 0.14%
(https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html)

Comment 25 Feb 2020

Not sure who the hell is downvoting you. Well-sourced information, factual numbers based on available reporting, and a hypothesis based on these numbers.

Might I also add a source to your list? This one is very similar to worldometers and includes a few more relevant charts. The experimental fatality rate chart is probably the best indicator of the true to-date fatality rate: https://studylib.net/coronavirus

Comment 25 Feb 2020

Will be interesting to see how things go in the next few weeks. 2 weeks ago they were saying Japan was primed for the next major outbreak, but their new case rate has drastically slowed since then.

Comment 25 Feb 2020

The problem will be if CV19 hits before flu season is over. This will overly tax many areas, especially health care center in rural and poorer areas. Ultimately that would cause the fatality rate for BOTH seasonal flu and CV19 to increase.

For greater context, Spanish flu hit 28% of the US population and had a low-end fatality rate of 2%. They're saying CV19 has a 2-3% fatality rate. So if 28% of the US population (~330 million) ends up infected and the fatality rate holds, you could see at least 1.8 million people die in the US alone. Yeah, seasonal flu is bad, but its fatality rate is only 0.1%. This should be the wake up call for everyone.

The hope is you're right about the virus weakening as it spreads -- severe cases get isolated (or sadly die), while the very minor or asymptomatic cases spread far and wide. And of course this could also drastically drop the fatality rate. This is the best case scenario as it will be relegated to the level of seasonal flu once a vaccine is readily available. Until then, it's going to be quite the ride, both financially and from a health perspective.

Comment 21 Feb 2020

I totally get how you feel. Imagine the oh so lofty expectations of being an average runner on a D3 cross country program. That was my life, yet by November my freshman year I already had 1 emergency room visit and another separate visit to do a stress test and blood test. Turns out the stress and anxiety of balancing a full course load, a part time job, and the cross country season took aim at my heart -- something I never had a problem with in high school. Eventually I was cleared, but I went through the same song and dance again during my senior season.

My point being, I can only imagine what DJ has gone through at that high level of competition and expectation. And that it doesn't matter if you're a D1 star or a D3 relative nobody... we're all humans and all deal with these things in our own way.

Comment 20 Feb 2020

Excellent news. Academics > basketball. He just needs to ease back into it with the time frame that works best for him. And when he's ready to lace up again, we'll welcome him with open arms. Mental health can take just as much damage as the physical body with the difference being you don't always see it when someone is struggling internally. Both take time to recover and you definitely don't want to rush anything.

As a side effect of everything, I hope this sends a positive message to the rest of the athletes at the school -- if you're struggling with something, there's no shame in taking care of yourself, even if it means stepping away from the team for a bit. We all understand.

Comment 16 Feb 2020

So my keys to victory at Iowa on Thursday: 1. More assists than turnovers. 2. More assists than Iowa. 3. CJ takes care of the ball. 4. Keep the game in the 60s or 70s.

5.) Score more points than the other team. If we do this we have a legit chance to win.

In all seriousness, I agree. Our offense and defense both have to step up. Defense to of course slow down their high powered O, and offense needs to do enough to keep pace with their (hopefully limited) scoring. The offense is what worries me. An extended drought in this game can be a killer.

Comment 13 Feb 2020

Valid question, I don't know the answer to that. I'm not sure how they're obtaining defense (court-appointed or on their own), or if they can even have the same defense attorney. I'd say very unlikely to the latter in the event one of them would turn on the other in an attempt to plea down, creating a conflict of interest.

EDIT: Separate attorneys -- I overlooked that in the article.