osu992's picture

osu992 12th Warrior


Alexandria, VA

Member since 21 December 2015 | Blog

Favorites

  • NFL TEAM: 2015 Ohio State Buckeyes
  • NHL TEAM: non-2017 New York Rangers
  • NBA TEAM: Cavs, if I need one.
  • MLB TEAM: Cleveland Indians

Recent Activity

Comment 18 Jan 2018

You've got the gist of it. They use a Gaussian distribution to weight the likely contribution of each recruit at that rating level compared to the other members of the class, without consideration of the rest of the roster (class=team). They assume the ratings are accurate (obviously) and then figure (proprietary) what kind of contribution each player than make: your best player will have the biggest impact and will be the most involved. So if you have two 4* guys, the model may say they both play 50% of the time. But the team with a 5* and a 3* might be getting 80% of playing time from the 5* and only 20% from the 3*. Therefore, it doesn't matter that they average to a 4*, the 3* won't be around as much.

You can extrapolate the recruiting classes to the 85 team limit. If UGA gets six 5* per class, they will average twenty-four 5* (ignore 5th years and early option on draft eligibility since we're talking about recruiting a team for it's ability to play) on a roster. If OSU only gets three 5*, they will only have 12 on the roster. Therefore, UGA will be able to field an entire team of 5*s and OSU will only be able to field half a team. Therefore, it doesn't matter than UGA also has thirty 3*s that bring down the average...they barely factor into the equation.

Of course, the model needs to consider the value of position depth (having a middle of a roster that's just as good as the top of the roster) and how all that talent stacks up by position (if all the 5* are QBs, it doesn't matter)...but that's a decision 247sports needs to make based on what they think is important.

Comment 17 Jan 2018

Thanks for revisiting, OH-10!

You can find more conversation the topic below:

https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/anything-else/2017/08/84195/down-vote

https://www.elevenwarriors.com/forum/site-stuff/2014/12/46823/when-should-we-downvote

Comment 17 Jan 2018

complaining that someone makes a new thread about something that was listed as the 200th comment of a different thread that I had no interest in reading

that wasn't the joke

Comment 17 Jan 2018

If Burrow doesn't win the job, he should transfer. He's too talented to sit on our bench. Best of luck to him if he does. I hope he doesn't go to Michigan. That would speak very poorly of UFM's indoctrination practices. I also hope he doesn't go to any other school the culmination of which would be his leading of a torching of the Buckeyes.

Comment 17 Jan 2018

Comment 17 Jan 2018