McLovin2.0's picture

McLovin2.0


6I4 (via 6I4)

MEMBER SINCE   August 29, 2016

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  • NHL TEAM: Blue Jackets
  • NBA TEAM: Cavaliers
  • SOCCER TEAM: Crew

Recent Activity

Comment 08 May 2020

The reality is, of the 1/2 million or so, who will succumb to this deadly virus, a large percentage of those, would have died of regular influenza anyway.

What has been lost in all the calculations is the fact that all pandemics lose strength eventually, naturally.  As they propogate, they tend to lose their inherent strength, intensity and effectiveness, as we witnessed with swine flu and SARS.  These viruses are virtually, non-existent today.

This is a smooth-brained take if I've ever read one.

The death rate of "regular influenza" is estimated to be at 0.1%.  We don't have full data on covid-19, but it's certainly higher.  The IFR may be around 0.6% or 6x deadlier than the flu.  The R0 value of covid-19 is estimated to by 5.7, meaning an infected person infects 5.7 other people on average.  In the worst influenza outbreaks, the R0 value has never gone above 3.  So covid-19 is spreading more rapidly, to more people, and is more deadly.  This is, of course, without even getting to the onset of symptoms being more severe as well, which would factor into if "most of these people would have died from the regular flu anyway."  Just wrong on all fronts.

I don't get the point of bringing up SARS.  It had a lower R0 value (spread less easily) than covid-19 does.  Also, patients were shedding the virus most several days after the onset of symptoms.  COVID-19 (or SARS-CoV-2) patients are estimated to be shedding the virus most *before* the onset of symptoms.  Isolation and lockdowns worked with the SARS outbreak (2002-2003) because it stopped the patients from spreading the virus even more - because it was easier to realize that symptoms = contagious.  COVID-19 is being spread by asymptomatic people, rendering these partial lockdowns quite useless in terms of exterminating the virus.  SARS didn't just magically get weaker - the lockdowns and isolation worked as designed.

The H1N1 R0 value was 1.46-1.75.  H1N1 is also estimated to have killed 150k-575k people.  It also didn't just magically end.  The pandemic was finally over nearly a year after vaccines began to be administered.

So the two diseases you brought up are "non-existent today" because 1) their R0 values were much lower, 2) isolation and lockdowns actually worked because a patient was most contagious AFTER the onset of symptoms, and 3) a vaccine became widely available.

Comment 30 Dec 2019

He's super aggressive but didn't want to ice the game on 4th and 2 from the Clemson 40 with 3 minutes left?

Comment 18 Dec 2019

Man, I grew up down the street from him - though I'm 8 years older than him.  Thought he really was breaking out last year (he did).  Sucks for him - he followed the coaching advice to prepare for this season as the bullet, and then the staff promptly stopped using the bullet and just slid Werner over.  Hard to fault him for leaving - he came in after an injury, lit it up, followed the coaches advice, and then hardly played at all the following season.

Kid is a good one.  He's gonna ball out somewhere.

Comment 08 Dec 2019

The chuds on ESPN have us 3rd lmao - Jim Mora and whoever else (I have it on in the background, but that a bit perplexing haha)

Comment 08 Dec 2019

Assuming it hasn't been re-injured:

-Grade 1: should take a few days to a week (I'm counting this one out)

-Grade 2: 2-4 weeks recovery time.

-Grade 3: 4-8 weeks

I have no idea what kind of he's treatment he's getting, if he has re-sprained it vs. TTUN or Wisconsin, but the team hasn't said the grade as far as I'm aware.  I'm guessing he's 100% or close to it by the playoffs.