MaineStrength's picture

MaineStrength


Portland, Maine

MEMBER SINCE   June 25, 2018

Recent Activity

Comment 20 Jul 2019

So how do you reconcile that you have all this talent, yet Jimmy can’t even get a sniff of the B1G CG

That's the million dollar question.  Why can other less talented teams win their conferences and/or beat their rivals or OSU, but UM hasn't been able to under JH?  I can't give a definitive answer.  People are getting paid millions to figure it out.  I could throw some shit on the wall and see what sticks, but who knows.

My guess is it's more complex than one thing.  Meyer was fanatical about beating UM.  Right or wrong JH values winning the entire schedule more than one game.  He's really good at beating inferior opponents, but not so much at upsetting higher ranked foes.  He doesn't want to lose games earlier in the year because he's preparing for OSU.  That's a guess.  Also, UM can't sneak up on OSU the way Iowa or Purdue can.  It's the last game of the year every year and Meyer prepared all year for it making upsets less likely to happen.  Depth has been a problem due to recruiting in Hoke's last 2 years.  That's been slowly going away, but retention has also cropped up slowing the progress.  Up until last year the QB and o-line was a problem in a pro style offense that has to run first and protect the QB for longer developing plays.  The offensive play calling didn't do anything to mitigate it's weakness.  It worked against lesser defenses, but not good ones.  There was some luck involved in 2016.  And, Haskins was was a matchup nightmare for Brown's style of defense.  I think all these play a small role.  But, I don't think that recruiting, at least under JH's tenure, has been the problem.  

How much better talent do you need to overcome the limitations of your program 

Again, I don't think it's a talent issue.  The talent is good enough to win, at least once in a while.  OSU always recruits well and always will.  It's unlikely UM is going to recruit so significantly better than OSU that it could overcome all those things.  But, a lot of the issues have gradually gone away.  My hunch is as long as they get out of the dark ages with a more modern offense things will even out.  It won't be the 90's again, but UM will win a few games at least to the level you'd expect based on talent they have.

Comment 20 Jul 2019

My interest in 11W came about because there are so many articles and threads specific to UM.  I really do enjoy talking to rival fans about the rivalry.  Ideally there should be some give and take in a discussion.  I'm able to recognize many points others make that put UM in a poor light.  The facts are the facts.  When it gets annoying is when OSU fans are incapable of doing the same.  I think some people get their ego too tied up in their favorite team.  At the end of the day we don't really have anything to do with these teams.  We're just fans talking on the internet.

Comment 19 Jul 2019

Perhaps you are more talented this year than the worst teams to make the CFP

We've already covered this.  They are more talented than over 60% of the teams to make the CFP during the 5 years of its existence.

But to make the CFP, Michigan has to beat us.

We've already covered this too.

So your point is moot...

Is that your way of saying "you're right"? :)

Comment 19 Jul 2019

I just think you’re missing the boat on the role talent plays for these teams. It’s a starting block, to be sure, but the coaching, facilities, strength and conditioning and support front the administration are all crucial for taking that high school boys’ talent and turning it into a team of men with quality depth that’s needed to compete at he CFP level, able to compete for four quarters four games in a row against top level talent (The Game, B1GCG, Semis and Finals).

I think you're missing the boat on what this thread is about.  Those are all great points, but none of them is the topic of this thread.  This thread is about recruiting and only recruiting...what recruiting rankings you need to make the CFP...not win it, just make it.  The only point I'm making is refuting the claim UM does not have enough talent to make the CFP.  

Comment 19 Jul 2019

TTUN is no more talented than they’ve been under Harbaugh

I think they will be slightly more talented than they've been in JH's tenure.  They've been somewhere between #7-9 in 247's team talent composite during JH's tenure.  Based off roster projections, I think in 2019 UM will be #5-6 (and OSU #3).  The other year they were that close was 2016.

It’s another thing to put it all together and make a team greater than the sum of its parts

For like the millionth time, my argument is only about talent.  I am not saying they have the coaching, right players in the right positions, etc.  I am only saying that they have the talent to make the CFP as measured in recruiting rankings.

Comment 19 Jul 2019

 I guess you just love trying to convince yourself, this year could be the year.

I don't know how many times I have to say this, but I guess one more couldn't hurt.  I'm not suggesting UM will make the playoffs, just that they have the talent to do so.

It took an act of god against TTUN to salvage their season.  It also took an act of god for PSU to beat tOSU, two blocked kicks in the 4th-Q

Clearly sometimes shit happens in CFB.  It can be unpredictable at times. But, that's not evidence of anything pertaining to the talent argument.

I keep telling you this, NFL-Franchise QB's (Deshaun Watson) change the entire dialogue.

Are you calling Cardale Jones, Jake Coker, Connor Cook, JT Barett, Jalen Hurts, & Taj Boyd NFL franchise QBs?  Again, UM has enough talent to make the CFP.  An NFL franchise QB is not a pre-requisite.

you are insane if you think the B1G is ever getting two teams into the CFP anytime soon.

You can spin this any way you want, but none of your arguments can negate the fact that UM has the talent to make the CFP.  That doesn't mean they will.  

Comment 19 Jul 2019

In all fairness, how do you answer that question well?  Dan is basically saying "I'm looking to stir up some controversy.  OSU is better than you.  Care to comment on that Jim?"  

I doubt many OSU fans would take too kindly to a UM reporter asking Day what his program needs to do differently to avoid the controversy that followed his team last season.

Comment 19 Jul 2019

Nah, just calling out your weak attempt to cover up for a coach who was ordained as yet ANOTHER savior of a once proud Michigan program and hasn't produced .  Care to name a major successful college program who has won (read: conference titles and national title appearances) without 'controversy' ?  Oh wait ...how about App State??  But you go ahead and continue to drink that blue koolaid and enjoy a grown man climbing trees, going shirtless and having sleep overs .  You must be proud.

Are you sure you're not upset?  Vent away my man, it's all good.

Comment 19 Jul 2019
I disagree. You're back to the same argument that UM has to be more talented than OSU to make the CFP. They don't. There are all sorts of examples. MSU and PSU both won the conference while being less talented than OSU. Clemson won the ACC while being less talented than FSU. UGA made the playoffs while being less talented than Bama. Okla made the playoffs and won the Big 12 while being less talented than Texas. The data is clear. UM has enough talent to make the CFP
Comment 19 Jul 2019

You sound upset.  Are you interested in a discussion or do you just want to vent?

If so we have to stick to the topic.  The topic isn't about titles or records.  He already said Meyer had a great record.  JH has conceded that point.  The topic is about the controversy surrounding Meyer's programs.  It sounds like you suggesting that JH has more controversy surrounding his programs than Meyer.   Is that what you're saying or are you just talking about arrest records?

Comment 19 Jul 2019

All those schools did it in a specific year, different league etc....

MSU made the playoffs with less talent in the same league.  

Michigan does not have the talent, top to bottom to make it at this point

It sounds like your argument is that because UM is not as talented as OSU they can't make the playoffs.  Is that right? 

Are we in agreement that UM is the second most talented team in the B1G?  If we can agree on that, then I think we are saying the same thing. 

In the 5 years of the CFP 30% of the teams were undefeated and 70% had one loss.  All B1G teams that got there had one loss (MSU once and OSU twice).  So, UM can get there if they hypothetically only have one loss, which is what seems statistically most likely, at least when considering talent alone.  They are more talented than everyone on their schedule except OSU.

this also revolves around player development to the likes of elite programs and I hate to burst the bubble you guys are not there yet. 

As I mentioned to other posters who have brought up other arguments, this is about talent.  I am refuting the argument that UM does not have the talent to make the CFP, which they clearly do.  That doesn't mean they will.  I am not saying they have coaching, depth, development, etc.  It just means they have the talent to make it, which was the topic of the thread.  It sounds like you agree.  Cheers

Comment 19 Jul 2019

I'm not sure how 247 calculates team composite talent

They take the recruiting rank of everyone on their 85 man roster and add up the points.  It doesn't account for starters versus backups, experience, etc, just the rank of each member of the 85 man roster.  There are other folks who do their own that account for things like experience, but 247s does not.  It's pure "talent".

I guess you're argument is that ttun has enough talent...but their coaches have sucked, relatively speaking.

Yes, this is a recruiting discussion.  I am refuting the claim that UM does not have enough talent to make the CFP, which clearly they do.  It sounds as though you agree.  Cheers

Comment 18 Jul 2019

Oklahoma has Texas in their conference.  Bama has UGA & LSU.  ND plays both UGA and UM in 2019.  The ACC is ripe for Clemson with FSU down and the PAC 12 is ripe for Oregon with USC down.  But, the B1G, SEC, and Big 12 all have multiple top 10 team talent composite teams in thier conferences to contend with.  So, I'd say UM has just as good of a chance as teams like UGA, LSU, Oklahoma, Texas, & OSU whereas Bama & Clemson seem like the favorites.  Again, the argument is about having enough talent to make it to the CFP, not to win.  It takes something special, generally an electric QB, to win the NC unless you are #1 in team talent, aka Bama.

Comment 18 Jul 2019

What did I miss about Gattis being a loud mouth?  Given his previous stops I have no problem pointing out him being annoying, but I wasn't aware of it.  What'd he do?

Comment 18 Jul 2019

My main point is that it's irrelevant that TTUN had a "better" class in 2019

Is that your way of conceding that point?  At least we can finally put to rest that UM had a better class in 2019.

When you compare the projected starters in 2020, tOSU has a significant edge in talent at nearly every spot.

I think only one of those guys you listed (Hutchinson) is a projected starter, but that's OK.  I've done this matchup thing before where you attempt a depth chart for both teams and matchup WR vs DB, o-line vs d-line, RB vs LB, etc. thing before.  It gets a bit convoluted when you have to start trying to figure out if a lower ranked guy like Chis Olave will start or a higher ranked one like Garrett Wilson and then your bias may influence your projected starters.  But, suffice it to say we can both agree that OSU is more talented than UM.

So, we can agree that UM had the better class last year, but OSU still is more talented overall.  My point is that although OSU is more talented, the gap in talent between the two programs is not so significant that the game should not be competitive.  OSU will probably be #3 overall in team talent and UM will probably be #6.  That is not that significant IMO.

Comment 18 Jul 2019

All of the Tier-2 schools just need to stop w/ the Clemson comparisions.  Find yourself the next Boyd/Watson/Lawerence succession at QB, a stable of five 1st-Rd. DL and maintain the best assistant coaching staff in all of CFB by a wide margin; then we can talk.

That's only one school.  MSU, Washington, Oklahoma, & ND all also made the playoffs with less talent than UM.  I'm not saying UM will make the playoffs nor that they are as good as Clemson.  Maybe they have the right QB and maybe they don't.  Maybe they have a good enough d-line and maybe they don't.  Maybe they have the right assistants and maybe they don't.  But, none of that is the argument.  This argument is about talent and they have enough talent to make the CFP.

Comment 18 Jul 2019

In the four years we've had a CFP the average team talent composite ranking is #9.4.  Last year UM was #8.  In 2017 they were #7.  In 2016 they were #8.  In 2019 I'd expect them to be #6.  That's as far as we can predict right now.  UM has had more talent than over half the team's that have made the CFPs in the last 4 years.  The data speaks for itself.  UM has the talent to make the CFP in 2019 and has the past several years.  That is by no means a guarantee they will, but they have enough to compete.

Comment 18 Jul 2019

Until TTUN recruits better or has an Upperclassman Franchise NFL QB, they are irrelevant.

The data speaks for itself.  They have good enough recruiting to make the playoffs in 2018.  They may or may not have the right guys at the right positions, enough depth, the right coaching, etc.  Time will tell.  But, talent won't prevent them from making the playoffs.

Comment 18 Jul 2019

I assume Clemson (and maybe OU) is the majority of your backup for this statement

Let's look at the history of the playoff using 247s Team Talent Composite rankings.

2015

  1. Clemson #13
  2. Bama #1
  3. OU #16
  4. MSU #23

2016

  1. Bama #1
  2. Clemson #9
  3. OSU #5
  4. Wash #24

2017

  1. Clemson #9
  2. Okla #16
  3. UGA #4
  4. Bama #1

2018

  1. Bama #2
  2. Clemson #6
  3. Okla #11
  4. ND #10

4-Year Average Playoff Team Talent Composite Ranking

#9.4

Comment 18 Jul 2019

You gotta love a rivalry.  JH said exactly three sentences about Meyer.  The first two sentences was a compliment and the third sentence was a criticism.  Both comments were true.  The compliment was ignored and the criticism was the title of an article.  Isn't it interesting how the human brain works.

Comment 17 Jul 2019

That said, any sane man would be more prepared to bet on "LJ and our d-line room" than "Gattis and your passing game roster" at this point.

Yes, seeing as though OSU returns most of their d-line and UM returns most of their o-line I'd agree that OSU maintains the advantage in that matchup, particularly on the edges.  UM will not be able to simply run into the line and expect success or have long developing pass plays and expect to be able to keep a clean pocket.  Now, I think that's exactly what Gattis is working on.  The question is how successful will he be?  Time will tell.  So, I'd agree OSU maintains the advantage, but UM is taking schematic steps to improve and if healthy Patterson, DPJ, Collins, & Black have the ability to stress most defenses.  

Comment 17 Jul 2019

This is a sensible take.  If you look at recruiting in a vacuum and ignore other things like coaching, scheme, development, retention, etc. signing top 10 classes on average is what's needed to be a playoff contender.  While OSU was #1 in team talent in 2018, Clemson was #6, Oklahoma was #11, and UM was #8.  And, UM's team talent is likely to go up a spot or two since they are graduating the #37 class from 2015 and bringing in the #8 class from 2019, early NFL departures and retention aside.  There is also no doubt that OSU still maintains a talent and depth advantage over UM and the rest of the B1G.  However, the talent gap between the OSU & UM is close enough for games to be competitive if all other things are equal.  I know there is a lot of conjecture on new coaching changes on both teams, so time will tell how that works out, but the talent gap will still be in OSU's favor, but it will not be overbearing.