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Lighteyes


MEMBER SINCE   January 04, 2017

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Comment 15 Oct 2019

Interestingly, his catches actually are right in line with his last couple years:

2019: 27 catches in 6 games = 4.5 catches per game

2018: 70 catches in 14 games = 5 catches per game

2017: 56 catches in 14 games = 4 catches per game

Also, he only needs 21 in the remaining games to break the record - an average of 3 catches per game. KJ's lowest catches in a game this year is 2 in garbage blowouts against Miami and Indiana. Given that KJ's best skill is his hands and reliability, he's likely to actually get more catches as the games get tougher and tighter.

Comment 14 Oct 2019

Yeah, it was axed. The Cleveland.com guys discussed it a few weeks ago. Basically, the short version is that the number of reporters calling in to ask questions dropped precipitously in the past couple years - the original intent was to make it easier to get comments from your team's opponent, but with everybody now having mandatory media availability and everything being online and etc, it became kind of pointless. 

I mean, we're halfway through the season and you're just now realizing that it's no longer a thing, so you're Exhibit A in "why it was deemed useless". :)

Comment 14 Oct 2019

First off, the odds of having three undefeated major conference teams are really low. It's happened basically twice in a couple decades - last year and 2004 USC/Oklahoma/Auburn mess. There's only been an average of about one undefeated team per year in the history of the CFP era (~5 in five years). Frankly, the odds are more likely that we'll end up with zero or one undefeated team than with three. If we're sitting on November 11th and none of those teams have gotten upset, then maybe start start worrying, but history shows it's way too early to really expect that.

Secondly, I don't think you can just assume Ohio State is going to get left out with one loss. We forget it now, but that 2017 Alabama team was a near-unanimous #1 start to finish until their Auburn loss at the end of the year, while winning convincingly in most of those games, while Ohio State lost two games and got blown out of the building at Iowa. And while last year's team was left out with one loss, that happened in a year with a glut of undefeated teams (unlikely to happen again) after getting blown out of the building at Purdue, and spending the entire year burning any chance of getting the benefit of the doubt by being close to mediocre teams like TCU, Minnesota, and Indiana for three quarters, barely sneaking by bad Nebraska and Maryland teams, etc.

This year's team, with a trail of dominance behind them, would be in a much better position to survive one loss, as long as it's not a no-show laugher or Penn State (which would lose the division and conference titles).

Root for Ohio State to win because of course you should, root for other teams to lose because it'll help you rest easier, but don't seriously worry yet about a one-loss OSU team getting shafted.

Comment 14 Oct 2019

Correct. The Audible did a long breakdown on it a couple years ago (thanks to Bruce Feldman's FOX connections). This is the process, as they described it:

All the network execs get into a big room, with a list of weeks and "picks" in the week, then they draft them. So effectively not just picking weeks, but where your priority is for that week. The key here is that you're NOT necessarily guaranteeing games at this point, just pick slots. So maybe you're not sure before the season whether OSU/Wisconsin or Sparty/Penn State (both on October 26th) will turn out to be more interesting - but if Fox has the first dibs on that week, they don't need to decide immediately which one they have; they can decide once they get a better feel for which game will bring more national appeal.

So essentially, it works like this:

Fox (by virtue of their massive contract) has the #1 overall pick. They use it on getting first dibs in Rivalry Week because duh, they want The Game. ESPN has the #2 overall pick, so they look and they can either take the first choice of games in any other week OR get the second-best game in Rivalry Week - maybe they choose November 23rd to lock down PSU/OSU. Then it goes back to Fox for the #3 overall pick and maybe they want first dibs on October 26th so they can make the aforementioned choice between Wisky/OSU and PSU/Sparty. And so forth - it's not quite a back and forth draft because the vagaries of TV contracts come into play, but that's the general concept. The Big Ten Network also comes into play partway through and get their picks as well. 

There's all sorts of really interesting considerations that come into play - other games that the network owns from other conferences (e.g., if Fox already has OU/Texas as their October 12th headliner, they might care less about getting first dibs on the Big Ten in that week), programming schedules in general (Fox knows they have to work around baseball playoffs, so they'd probably prefer to stock up on games in November rather than October), projections of the teams, comparison of various weeks (would the 5th choice of games in Week 7 be more or less valuable than the 7th choice in Week 9?), etc.

Comment 14 Oct 2019

Agreed. Meyer himself even said it a couple times that year, that they never even considered swapping QB's. Basically, short of being literally unable to play, Meyer was rolling with Barrett no matter what.

That said, just to note that in a comparison of Barrett's last year as a starter versus Burrow in 2018, JT was clearly better. Even looking purely as passing stats, Barrett was statistically superior pretty much across the board and it's not particularly close.

2017 Barrett: 64.7% completion rate, 3053 yards passing, 8.2 YPA, 35/9 TD/INT ratio, 160.1 QB rating.

2018 Burrow: 57.8% completion rate, 2894 yards passing, 7.6 YPA, 16/5 TD/INT ratio, 133.2 QB rating.

Burrow has taken a huge leap this year and is obviously better than 2017 Barrett, but as a soph, he would have been much closer to last year's Burrow than this year's Heisman contender domination.

Comment 10 Oct 2019

I'm going to go further than this article did: Not only is this 6-0 team more impressive than last year's 6-0 team, I'm not sure the last time I was more impressed with an Ohio State team at the halfway point of the season. Not the teams of 2018 (defense), 2016 (offense), or 2015 (offense), which had all shown notable flaws. Not the 2017 or 2014 teams which already had a double-digit loss in Columbus. Even though all these teams ended up with stellar years, they'd all shown at least something which gave me pause...which this year's team has not done.

Maybe the answer is 2013, but honestly, might have to go all the way back to 2006 to find a team where after six games, I was this impressed with the first half of the season. 

(Of course, the first half of the season doesn't guarantee anything, as a quick look at the final results of those above seasons would tell you)

Comment 30 Sep 2019

don't love this, but oh well, does a blackout stadium actually help?

Well, the 'original' famous blackout games that really kicked off the nationwide trend was the Penn State-Ohio State game from 2005, which led to one of the most talented OSU teams in history getting upset, so yes...but then the second most famous blackout game is probably the Georgia Funeral Game where a top-5 Georgia team touted as a potential national title contender did a blackout against Alabama, then got run off the field to the tune of something like 31-0 at half.

So...YMMV.

Comment 27 Sep 2019

637 yards.

Split up into 350-ish from Martinez and 280-ish from Fields.

Comment 18 Sep 2019

I don't have a problem with this statement. He says they must do things like that to win. The old saying was "Defense Wins Championships"

I actually do have a problem with the statement. The points scored by the losing team in the CFP championship games are as follows: 16, 23, 31, 40, 20. Defense definitely matters (shout-out to Oklahoma's 0-3 Playoff record), but in the modern era of college football, if you can't average at least 20+ points against top-end elite competition, it's really hard to win a title. 

I mean, the 2016 team had an elite defensive line, a reliable LB corps, and a NFL All-Pro secondary...but they were laughed off the field by Clemson because the offense was so shaky all year.

Comment 18 Sep 2019

In fairness to the player, I think the problem goes way deeper than Shea Patterson. This is Harbaugh's fifth year, they've had like seven different starting QBs or something in his tenure...and every single one of them has been mediocre at best. Kinda hard to imagine that pulling Patterson is going to somehow fix the deeper woes with the Harbaugh era.

Comment 13 Sep 2019

Yeah, I also think it's odd that it stopped without a statement. Especially since they had it for week 1. If it hadn't shown up at all this year, then it would have been significantly less weird. But starting it and then stopping it almost implies that there's something behind-the-scenes going on that caused it to vanish.

I'd like to hope that it'll come back in some form. Even if you want to skip the free t-shirt due to cost-cutting (perfectly acceptable; reality is reality!), at least post the thread and let people guess for pride or a one-sentence shout-out in the Monday Skull Session or whatever.

Comment 13 Sep 2019

they still should get credit for playing those teams...TTUN, FSU, USC and Wisky all I believe in the last several years.  

That sounds less impressive when you look at the seasons they actually played those teams. 2019 Duke, immediately after losing the #6 pick in the draft. 2018 Louisville, the year after they lost Lamar Jackson and ended up 2-10. 2017 FSU when the team fell to pieces and almost missed a bowl. 2016 USC when they started the wrong QB and went 1-3 in their first four games. 2014 West Virginia when they went 7-6. 2012 Michigan when they went 8-5, the year after they went 11-2.

Credit for not completely ducking big OOC games, but they've had remarkable luck (planning? projections?) to repeatedly play teams the year after that team really takes off, so the wins look really good on paper but much less so in reality.

Comment 11 Sep 2019

I'm the exact same age as you and I have never heard anyone say simply "THE" when referring to OSU. Never, not once.

People will include "The" if they're saying the full name of the university (e.g., The Ohio State University on an NFL broadcast or as part of a formal resume or whatever), but not simply The and leave it at that...and remember, OSU isn't trying to trademark The Ohio State University or tOSU or anything, they were trying to trademark simply the three-letter word THE.

Comment 11 Sep 2019

That team had a loss coming, and they deserved one. That loss is what finally woke them up. The michigan game the next week was the first time all season that team looked engaged and had any kind of intensity. 

My personal belief has always been that the team would have won the national title if they'd lost earlier in season. The loss to Sparty was a wake-up call for both the players and the coaching staff. Prior to that, the team and coaches (and fans, let's be honest) just kept expecting the light to come on eventually, with a lot of "we're winning, it's fine, scoreboard says we're undefeated, it's fine" talk.

It's only after the loss that they were forced to face reality, sit down, and evaluate the issues...but of course, Sparty was the one game on the entire schedule they couldn't afford to lose because it cost them the division title, the conference title, and two elite wins over Sparty and Iowa. If they'd lost to like, Indiana (reminder: it required a last-second goal line stand to escape), that honest reckoning happens much sooner and the team would have been rolling by the meat of the schedule. A 12-1 conference champ Ohio State team with a narrow road loss to Indiana, but wins over Sparty, TTUN, Iowa, etc would absolutely have snagged the #4 spot in the Playoff rankings and that a motivated OSU would have dominated the Playoff.

Comment 03 Sep 2019

The key part of my statement was "taking care of business". The reason Ohio State was left out in 2017 and 2018 wasn't because ESPN doesn't want OSU (they're a TV network, of course they want the largest fanbase in college football to be part of their TV event!), it was because the team no-showed against Iowa and Purdue.

In 2018, if Ohio State had lost 21-20 to Purdue instead of 49-20, they'd definitely have been ahead of two-loss Georgia. Maybe they even would have been ahead of Oklahoma, given how shaky Oklahoma's defense was all year. But getting obliterated by a 6-6 team kept OSU from being part of that conversation.

In 2017, if Ohio State beats Iowa, they're in no question as a 12-1 conference champ over 11-1 non-champ Alabama. Even if they'd lost something like 27-24, it would have been a serious discussion. But in getting blown off the field by a decent-not-great Iowa team, Ohio State gave the committee no reason to even seriously consider putting an 11-2 champion in the field over an 11-1 non-champ.

Comment 03 Sep 2019

But if the rankings still look like this heading in to the conference championships, we should be sitting pretty since 'Bama and Georgia would (most likely) have to play each other. 

Don't worry about this; the rankings won't be like this in late November. Every single year, it becomes a media talking point in late September about "what happens if everyone goes undefeated???? MASS CHAOS INCOMING!!!"...and then every year, there's a bunch of upsets in October and November that nobody sees cming and we end up with a small handful of undefeated teams, if any.

Heck, this even holds true among the top few teams: In the CFP era, the combined total of undefeated regular seasons by Clemson, Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, and Ohio State is...four (2015 Clemson, 2016 Alabama, 2018 Clemson, 2018 Alabama). 

Ohio State just needs to focus on taking care of business every week and the rest will fall into place.