Lighteyes's picture


MEMBER SINCE   January 04, 2017

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Comment 5 hours ago

Correct. He started 56 games in his first two years, averaged over 30 minutes a game down the stretch, he's the team's best defensive player, and there's no hotshot freshman or something coming in hot to steal the role. LM was a lock to hang onto that starting role at SG and get a solid 25+ minutes a game.

Which is why I don't really agree with some of the comments about "hey, transfers happen in college basketball". Yes, they do...but when someone who isn't a freshman transfers, it's typically (1) a player clearly moving up the food chain (e.g., Towns going from Harvard to Ohio State or Duke), (2) a player who wasn't getting much playing time in the first place, or (3) a player who has played a lot but got recruited over and sees the writing on the wall. None of those apply here.

Comment 03 Apr 2020

I wonder just how bad Michigan State's recruiting class will end up.

Given that Mel Tucker is coming from Colorado (and previously Alabama), he likely has zero relationship with any likely targets for Sparty's 2020 class. Time-wise, he was hired in February, which is a dead period for recruiting. Then all the Covid-19 shutdowns happened almost immediately after the dead period ended. So he's basically had no 'normal' recruiting time to build up relationships. And while he's previously worked with Ohio State 15 years ago, that's far enough in the past that he'd normally want to spend this time reconnecting with high school coaches, etc, but that's more difficult now too. Plus of course, all the usual issues that you get even in ordinary years when a new coach comes in from the outside and replaces almost the entire staff of assistants.

Obviously, there's no way that they finish with zero commitments; a P5 offer from a decent program is a P5 offer. But it seems very possible that they remain in the bottom-tier of the B1G recruiting and end up somewhere in the 50's or worse nationally.

Comment 03 Apr 2020

The FDA probably will, but you still need to do clinical trials first. And this is what the press release itself says (emphasis mine):

The authors are now in the process of applying for an investigational new drug approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration in anticipation of starting a phase I human clinical trial in the next few months

Testing in patients would typically require at least a year and probably longer,” Falo said. “This particular situation is different from anything we’ve ever seen, so we don’t know how long the clinical development process will take. Recently announced revisions to the normal processes suggest we may be able to advance this faster.”

And remember, this is a press release; anybody familiar with scientific press releases knows that if anything, they're usually a bit optimistic. So don't kid yourself that a vaccine is right around the corner, because the press release's timeline itself would indicate sometime in 2021 (few months to start the trial, plus whatever the testing takes)...and that's just to have the vaccine ready, before getting into the logistics of producing, transporting, etc. Even if they're able to shorten the approval and testing process due to the crisis, that would still be a ways off.

Comment 01 Apr 2020

Honestly, I think the anomaly that's throwing people off most is the Thad Five class. The model of "multiple national five stars, one-and-done guys" in the same year? Not happening.

But if you write that off as a fluke, Matta's more typical recruiting classes do seem replicable. If we ignore 2007, Matta typically recruited a class which consisted of: (1) a consensus five-star guy from the Midwest, (2) a couple other highly rated four-star guys who are likely to stay a couple years, and (3) maybe a lower rated guy with potential. Matta would bring in a class like this every couple years, then backfill in-between with smaller classes. The 2014 class with Russell as a five star from KY supported by KBD and Tate and the 2007 class with Koufos as five-star from OH, surrounded by three four stars in Diebler, Lauderdale, and Turner are the perfect representations of this model.

...And Holtmann's 2019 class was pretty much that exact model as well - five-star DJ Carton from Iowa supported by two other highly rated four stars in Gaffney and Liddell, plus a three-star in Diallo. The issue for Holtmann is that two of the three jewels are gone - if a key recruiting class misses, you need to restock quickly or it snowballs.

Comment 01 Apr 2020

I was also sure DT was going to be an NBA player - I never thought he'd be a star because of his physical limitations, but surprising he never got a chance as a microwave scorer off the bench.

That said, I also think he'd probably be a lot more successful if he'd been a few years later. In 2013, he was kind of stuck without a position - too short to be a power forward but not quite athletic enough to be a wing...but if he was initially coming into the league today and teams using a lot more small ball, he could probably find a niche as a 7th man who brings shooting in a rotational role.

Comment 01 Apr 2020

Title IX is an issue, but it's entirely possible to drop some non-revenue sports as long as they did it evenly. According to Wikipedia/Google, Ohio State currently sponsors 31 sports, which is in range with other B1G schools and some of the massive Pac-12 departments too.By comparison, a lot of SEC schools with similar revenues to Ohio State are in the low 20's for sports - Florida has 21 and Alabama has 22. Ole Miss doesn't have Ohio State's revenues, but they're all the way down at 16 (!) sports.

The exact number of scholarship sports here might be a little shaky because everybody counts it a little differently (plus who knows about how accurate Wikipedia is), but the big picture is the same: Ohio State absolutely has room to cut sports while still remaining Title IX compliant. It'd be a last resort and not something anyone wants to do, but if they lost the entire football season and $150m of their $200m revenue? Every option would have to be on the table.

Comment 31 Mar 2020

Their chances of beating out Gunnar Hoak for the backup quarterback job might be decreased now.

Prior to this, I would have said that they were absolutely going to get the backup job over Hoak. Maybe Day would list list "Miller OR Stroud" as a motivational tool and a way to keep both guys on even footing...but in practical terms, if Ohio State needed a QB to step in for a half or start a game, it would be one of the two and not Hoak.

But with fewer practices, missing out on weight room time with Marotti, a lot less time to prepare, etc? It's now a lot more likely that Hoak could actually be the true emergency QB. Especially early in the season - if Fields needs replaced against Oregon in Week 2 or Iowa in Week 5, would Day really be comfortable with a true freshman who'd only had a few weeks with Ohio State's program and a handful of practices?

Comment 30 Mar 2020

The correct answer is no because of the Super Bowl, which has literally transcended sports to be An Event even for people who hate sports and haven't seen a single second of football all year. So for purposes of having an interesting discussion, let's take that off the table.

But I think it will be the most watched sporting event of the year, non-SB division. Everybody is stuck at home. Anybody who's a sports fan has been trying to make do with either old games that you already know the answer to or sports-esque stuff that you'd normally never care about (marbles, e-Sports, etc). So yeah. Honestly, given how much the NFL dominates ratings even in normal times, it's possible the draft might be the most watched event of the year period (again, SB excluded).

Comment 30 Mar 2020

True, thought I think mgo is on the mark there though. Obvious caveats about sometimes players develop, projection, maybe they're ahead of the curve, blah blah blah...but they gave a commit-able offer to a player who had zero other P5 offers, zero offers from the top-tier Group of 5 programs, who was primarily looking at MAC schools and FCS schools. Oh, and by the way, it's not like they found a hidden gem that was totally unheard of; both Rutgers and Wisconsin had looked into him and didn't give him an offer.

Comment 30 Mar 2020

Yeah. I regularly rip on the NCAA, but this is actually a case where they might have a point. We all think of the Power 5 schools when we talk about NCAA unfairness and yeah, for an Ohio State or even an Oregon State in the dregs of P5, $500k-$900k is irrelevant. But at lower levels where there aren't TV deals funding everything, it can be a much bigger deal. Most of those athletics departments aren't self-sustaining; if you're a school for whom athletics is already a net-negative/loss-leader, it's pretty hard to justify notably increasing your costs (with an extra $X for another year of scholarships) at the exact same time you're staring down the barrel of notably decreased revenues (due to the loss of NCAA tourney money).

Podcast Ain't Played Nobody did a really thorough breakdown a couple weeks ago of the costs and budgets of member schools and it's really interesting how much this is affecting the overall college athletics - Ohio State will be fine, but there are a lot of schools further down the food chain that are going to have a really rough few years financially.

Comment 29 Mar 2020

This is really interesting and makes a ton of sense.

One interesting consequence of both the metrics used is that the 2018 air raid passing doesn't have anybody in the Top 20. And despite hauling in touted high school receivers like Ohio State never has in their entire history, it's entirely possible that future Ryan Day offenses don't ever have someone make future Top 10's like this. The current philosophy of spreading the ball around and rotating guys regularly is excellent for the offense as a whole, but makes it unlikely any individual pass-catcher can produce world-shattering individual numbers.

Comment 27 Mar 2020

Not only do we need it, there is clearly enough information to make an astute pick or as most teams do, guess like the rest of us. 

I think an interesting subplot to this draft will be comparing the success rate to other drafts.

NFL teams will have a lot less information without Pro Days, in-person workouts, etc, etc. So the obvious answer is that you'd expect a lot more busts and draft misses...but the flip side argument is that all the time normally devoted to that will instead be spent on watching actual college film of players playing football so maybe there's actually less screwups due to drafting workout wonders.

Comment 27 Mar 2020

Dumb jokes aren't, but trolling is. Comparing coronavirus to "kids getting shot in Chicago" is 100% meant to just piss people off and draw a reaction.

Especially if (as Iowabuckeyes points out), you check his comment history, which over the 20-ish posts that show up include comments such as: "Dead bodies are stinking up my neighborhood" in response to a coronavirus story, "Comment removed for violating site's policy", "lol bloggers, get a real job", "follow the other buck website", a slam on Magic Johnson's AIDS, and "O$U".

There might be a legitimate discussion to have between effective public health precautions and panic...but a guy with that comment history who starts it off with that post is clearly NOT interested in trying to start a detailed and serious discussion.

Comment 26 Mar 2020

This is a really well thought-out and justified post.

I think the most likely outcome here is that they use the scholarship on a regular transfer with a couple years eligibility. If you look at the roster scholarship list, the big hole at point guard isn't next year (for all the reasons you laid out), it's the following year of 2021-2022 after CJ Walker graduates and there's not a single true point guard on the roster. So instead you find a guy this offseason on the sit one/play two plan. So basically, your point guard setup for the future looks like this:

2020-2021: CJ Walker playing, while Unnamed Transfer is redshirting

2021-2022: Unnamed Transfer starts, with a true freshman PG recruit serving as the backup

2022-2023: Unnamed Transfer and now-soph recruit share time

Comment 26 Mar 2020

Just as a slight clarification here:

If you earn less than the $75k individual, you get the full $1200 check. If you earn between $75k and $99k, you still get a partial check - the more you make, the smaller your check. Once you make more than $99k, you don't get any check whatsoever.

For a couple, you can basically just double all these numbers - e.g., less than $150k gets you the full $2400 check, then the range is $150k-$198k, then nothing if you earn more than $198k.

Comment 22 Mar 2020

Looking at that roster distribution, two things jump out at me:

1.) Next year looks like Ohio State's year - fifth year senior at point guard, all the key players are upper class men, at least one highly touted young guy entering his second year (EJ Liddell), no glaring holes on the roster, etc Holtmann has said from the start that he wants Ohio State to wants to build up teams with veterans and experience; well, now you've got it.

2.) They desperately need to either bring in a sit-one/play-two guy or snag a point guard who can play immediately for the following year, because after next year, the roster will be barren of true point guards for the 2021-2022 season. Even though there'll still be some combo guards and forwards who can handle the ball, that's definitely not something you want to rely on.

Comment 21 Mar 2020

It's also worth noting that the win came against a completely dysfunctional mess of a Buckeye team due to the NCAA mess. Which, yes, all the games count and it's not an excuse...but in terms of trying to evaluate "how competitive is this rivalry"? It's 5,964 days since a functional Ohio State team lost to TTUN.

Comment 19 Mar 2020

I don't think there's anything wrong with Ahrens. He serves as a nice microwave bench shooter that can make an impact every now and then.

The brutal truth of the matter is that you're always going to have a few guys on the roster that don't play much. There's only 40 minutes available at each position, so the fourth guy in your wing rotation (or sixth guy in your combined PG/SG/SF rotation) is always going to be fighting for scraps. Ahrens at least has some proven occasions of jumping off the bench and sinking a few shots to get Ohio State back in a rhythm.

If Ahrens wanted to transfer for more playing time, I wouldn't blame him one bit. But if he's willing to stay, practice hard, accept his specific role as "limited playing time, comes in just for one specific purpose"...then you could do a lot worse.

Comment 19 Mar 2020

Let's look at the QBs Michigan has had: Jake Rudock, Wilton Speight, John O'Korn, and Shea Patterson. All of them turned out to be mediocre/average. 

The real amazing part is when you compare it to what Ryan Day has done with very similar guys.

In 2016, TTUN's top QB recruit (Brandon Peters) was more highly rated than Ohio State's top QB recruit (Haskins). The guy coached by Harbaugh was completely undistinguished, enough so that he ended up being a grad transfer to Illinois. Meanwhile, the guy coached by Ryan Day developed so well that as a redshirt sophomore, he led the nation in passing, got a Heisman invite, and was drafted in the first round.

Justin Fields and Shea Patterson were both hyped five-stars with plenty of natural talent, but questions about how they'd done at their former school. The guy coached by Ryan Day turned into an instant Heisman finalist; the guy coached by Harbaugh was worse than he was as a sophomore on an Ole Miss team buried by controversy and led by an interim coach.

Comment 19 Mar 2020

Purely from a basketball perspective, the 2015 class is an interesting parallel for sure.

Which, if you want to take a lesson, means that Holtmann really needs to bring in a solid 2020 class. The 2015 class vanished and that really hurt the program, but then the program was really put into a bad spot by following it up with a 2016 class that included only a single highly ranked player (who himself quickly washed out) and three lower-rated guys who needed time to develop. You can work around one recruiting class that mostly washes out, but two produces a huge hole in the roster.

Comment 18 Mar 2020

It's an awkwardly worded sentence, but those are actually three separate running backs that might all commit over a short timeframe:

  • The top-100 prospect is Evan Pryor who just committed
  • The #2 overall back is TreVeyon Henderson, who is currently projected to come to Ohio State (80% crystal ball)
  • The top available transfer back is Sermon, who Rivals seems to think is coming to Ohio State

Effectively the message is: After two years of catching (understandable) heat for missing on top-100 RB's, Tony Alford might bring in three absolute studs at RB in the same cycle, maybe even within a couple months of each other.

Comment 16 Mar 2020

The interesting and subtle thing about today's Skully is that the first and second article have the same root cause.

Why did Florida pass a law to force the NCAA's hand? Because the NCAA didn't realize that momentum was building to modify the 'student athlete' model - so politicians of both parties got fed up of the NCAA's stonewalling and took matters into their own hands. If they'd been a lot more forward-thinking a couple years ago (rather than fighting it as recently as last fall!), they could have had the chance to shape it better.

Why did the NCAA drain their Rainy Day Fund? Because the NCAA didn't realize that momentum was building to modify the 'student athlete' model - so when changes came to cost-of-attendance, NCAA schools hadn't prepared financially and the money was drained to deal with that (both directly via a one-time payout to schools and indirectly via the legal settlement). Can't blame them for not foreseeing coronavirus of course, but if they'd been more forward-thinking and encouraged schools to be more ready for changes in the cost of attendance, then you could have still kept some money in the coffers. Alternatively, once you do spend that money, maybe make refilling the coffers a priority.

Comment 13 Mar 2020

Agreed, though I wouldn't be surprised if the NFL tries to spin it in a new way - since you're no longer showing Roger Goodell walking up to stage, shaking hands, etc, you use that time differently - maybe have GM's call in immediately after the draft pick and give a live 'unfiltered' thoughts on the newest member of the ____, maybe you mount a camera (with no sound) in team's draft rooms so you can actually get a "live watch in" of the GM reaching for The Draft Phone, who knows.

Comment 13 Mar 2020

To me the answer of how to handle the extra scholarships is fairly simple; any senior who wants to come back does not count against the team's limit (whatever it is for each respective sport). 

Yeah, I think that's where they likely end up...but it's worth noting that for a lot of universities, paying for those extra scholarships is not a trivial cost, so it might take a little while to get there.