Kernfan's picture

Kernfan


Germantown, Maryland (via Cleveland, Ohio)

MEMBER SINCE   September 11, 2013

Favorites

  • NFL TEAM: Redskins
  • NHL TEAM: Would rather watch olympics or boxing
  • NBA TEAM: Wizards, unfortunately
  • MLB TEAM: Orioles
  • SOCCER TEAM: whichever teams my kids are playing on

Recent Activity

Comment 16 Feb 2020

Other than the Redskins, DC area is not that football crazy.  Maryland has usually had crappy attendance, its gone up in the Big 10 because so many visiting fans show up.  High school stadiums aren't very big.  Years ago the stadium was almost empty when I saw the Washington Federals play in the USFL, even when they let you bring in your own beer.  Only thing I remember is empty stadium, great seats (we sat near the cheerleaders), and Herschel Walker was really fast playing for the New Jersey Generals.  Maybe if the weather warms up I'll go see Cardale play.

Comment 12 Feb 2020

Those numbers you are citing (40-60%) false accusations seem way out of line on other studies I have seen summarized.  Also 2/3 of your bullets are the same researcher.  I think 5% is more of a consensus figure from studies on false accusations out of reported rapes, similar values in an Economist article a few months and in this Snopes article which I will provide a link to below (it includes links to the various reports cited) and the text below.  The Snopes article was in response to some politicians claim during the Kavenaugh SC hearing that 99% of rape accusations were false.  https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/rape-allegations-fabricated/

For several reasons, it is challenging to confidently estimate what percentage of sexual assault allegations are fabricated. There is no single source of data to draw from, and most of the data come from police forces’ own conclusions on cases. The methods by which law enforcement agencies “unfound” (i.e. conclude a claim is without merit) a victim’s allegations has been inconsistent and has evolved over time, resulting in what are now recognized to be overly high past estimates of false claims. This situation was discussed in a 2014 paper that attempted to quantify false sexual assault allegations:

There is very limited research on false rape allegations and unfounding decisions, and the research that does exist suffers from a number of limitations. The unfounding research is dated and much of the research on false reports is based on inappropriate or inconsistent definitions.

What can confidently be said is that the number of false rape reports is nowhere near 99%. That 2014 study, one of the largest of its kind, analyzed LAPD police data and estimated that “the rate of false [rape] reports among cases reported to the LAPD [in 2008] was 4.5 percent.” A 2017 study utilized FBI data over the five-year period from 2006 to 2010 to conclude that “approximately 5% of the allegations of rape were deemed false or baseless” during that time period. A 2016 meta-analysis of seven studies addressing the same question estimated that 5.2% of rape allegations were false.

Furthermore, sexual assaults are among the most underreported form of crime: a majority of rapes, attempted rapes, and other sexual assaults go unreported.

Estimates vary, but researchers have concluded that the percentage of rapes reported to formal agencies is “quite low, ranging from 5–33%.” This would suggest that the pool of victims in position to make credible claims is much larger than the pool of people included in analyses of false reporting.

While the precise proportion of false rape reports may be undetermined, the most recent and credible research on this topic suggests that around 5% of rape or sexual assault allegations are false. No study has ever suggested anything close to 99% of such reports are false, and based on the most recent research, no study ever will.

Comment 11 Feb 2020

Snyder was treating Haskins like the teachers pet, such going into the training room when he got hurt.  Rivera may just be asserting authority.  DC is such a shit show I can't feel confident until I see the franchise actually do things correctly for a couple of years.  Good start so far on the coaches, new medical staff.  Looking forward to seeing Chase have a HOF career here.

Comment 08 Feb 2020

I would say OSU was young in 2018, but really needed a scheme and/or coaching change.  They really did not really improve during the year.  I could have seen them starting out a little weaker because of the inexperience, but the lack of improvement really surprised me.  Enjoyed the link and generally agree with the other points you made about this helping show how some teams may improve next year with returning experience not that the weaker rebuilding teams generally still don't beat out the elite reloading teams.

Comment 03 Feb 2020

The scandal I was referring to is not that Ivy's or other schools give athletes preference, involved students who were not really athletes being admitted under athlete preference, with the help of the coach of the minor sport, for bribes.  Private schools have a large amount of athletics and other activities, partly to help boost their students getting into elite schools.

Comment 30 Jan 2020

As a MD fan glad to not see Duke or UNC represented.  A former colleague once told me about tutoring a UNC grad transfer FB player that had under a 2.0 undergrad. 
 

Comment 30 Jan 2020

I rarely get worked up over celebrity deaths, or much of anything that celebrities do in their private life.  I have found the almost nonstop adulation of Kobe with barely almost no mention of the 2003 rape allegation except for the WaPo reporter who got death threats and suspended to be nauseating and unsurprising at the same time.  I feel a "too bad" every time I read a quick mention of traffic death, particularly involving kids.  But with 37,000 traffic deaths a year I'm not going to focus on any particular accident when I don't know any of the people.  Well maybe with the public focus the FAA will get off their ass and put black boxes on helicopters.

Comment 22 Jan 2020

Big 10 should go to an 8 game conference schedule and put cupcakes the second to last week.  Continuing to handicap your own conference against SEC and ACC is stupid from a perspective of wanting to win the CFP.  Having your flagship team play PSU (or MSU in 2015) before TTUN is criminally stupid.

Comment 22 Jan 2020

I gotta admit as a Georgetown fan going back to the 1970's when my Kentucky friend showed up at my desk today talking about this brawl, I was expecting more. But I'm glad this is getting such a negative reaction, because in the Big East back in the early/mid 1980's this barely would have registered.  It got to be annoying there were so many bench clearing brawls.  

Comment 20 Jan 2020

Yes, and Cincy was better than some of the top talent teams last year (FSU, USC, Texas).  When OSU was 1 in talent they lost to Purdue that was around 70th.  So shit happens.  But Washington is the only team to make the playoffs those 5 years out of the top 20 in talent (24th) and most of the playoff teams are top 10 talent wise.  Talent increases your odds, but you still need coaching (development and scheme) and luck (injuries, no shitty overturn calls from refs, etc.).

Comment 20 Jan 2020

Well stars matter, but they are not everything.  You can look over the last 5 years since 247 has put out their composite team talent.  The link below is to the 2019 list, but you can look at every year back to 2015.  That is a little better than just looking at recruits since it takes into account transfers and other reasons for kids not being at a school. Just looking at recruiting has Justin Fields still under Georgia analytics while Tate Martell would count for OSU. 

https://247sports.com/Season/2019-Football/CollegeTeamTalentComposite/

Comment 16 Jan 2020

I would change your first item to Several championships.  They have been close to the playoffs several times and had a real shot this last.  If they can avoid a disaster like the suspensions for Fickell's year, I would wager they have a better record this next decade if Day stays the next 10 years.