Frimmel's picture

Frimmel


Classified (via Martins Ferry, Ohio)

MEMBER SINCE   August 06, 2014

Favorites

  • SPORTS MOMENT: I struck out the side on 10 pitches once in little league.
  • COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYER: Archie
  • NFL TEAM: Bengals
  • NHL TEAM: I am indifferent to the NHL
  • NBA TEAM: I am indifferent to the NBA
  • MLB TEAM: Reds
  • SOCCER TEAM: Manchester United

Recent Activity

Comment 27 Mar 2020

That's what Italy thought, "This isn't a big deal." 8200 dead so far. Despite a nationwide lockdown on March 9th. That doesn't sound like regular old flu to me. Here's an article saying they had 240 deaths from their 2019 flu season. Does that really sound like something that is "no more lethal than the flu?" 

People can't go back to work if they're sick or dead. 

Public health precautions that work are indistinguishable from panic over nothing. 

Comment 27 Mar 2020

This article suggests perhaps it is the "Denial" stage of grief. It is an interesting idea that we're all experiencing at the moment an enormous case of collective grief.

The more earnest prepper folks call that sort of thinking "normalcy bias." "Nothing to see here, move along," sort of thinking. 

Comment 24 Mar 2020

I'd fallen a bit into reading a lot more about stoic philosophy before this thing came up. There are changes I'd been trying to make in my life and one of the chief tenets of stoicism is that you can control how you react to things that happen. Part of achieving that control lies with thinking about the worst. That way if the worst happens you're prepared for it and can react in a manner more likely to result in a favorable outcome.

And for government officials that's the job isn't it? They don't get to make decisions based on things going well. They have to make hard and unpopular calls based on the worst case scenario. They have to try and steer things away from those eventualities. They need to be prepared to mitigate those worst case scenarios. I called Governor DeWine spineless when he asked that large events be cancelled and I was very wrong because the next day after the Cavs and Jackets refused he ordered it. Our governor has been very good about making tough calls with this. 

Officials need to make decisions in the same mindset as putting on your seat-belt. You put it on because you don't get to be wrong about not being in an accident today. Positive thinking and personal vigilance aren't always sufficient to prevent an accident are they? 

The officials have a difficult job in that they need to be realistic and prepared for the worst while making sure they don't cause the worst. If we as citizens also consider the worst we won't be surprised or caught off-guard by what the officials decide. 

Comment 23 Mar 2020

I think it will depend largely on how effective the mitigation efforts have been thus far. By the end of the week/middle of next week there will be a clearer picture of where the nation is on the bad results spectrum between South Korea and Italy. If this thing seems to be in something resembling containment by the end of April I'd expect to see the football season kickoff with maybe a delay or even on time. Otherwise... Premeditatio malorum

Comment 13 Mar 2020

At the present time it seems unlikely you will end up quarantined at your job site. You will likely simply be sent home and told to work from home or find yourself on a layoff sort of thing.

It is likely best that you have groceries and consumables at home for two weeks or more without any eating out in the calculation. It is time to consider going out as little as possible. And consider that once everyone comes back out everything will disappear quickly as they need to replenish. 

At present there doesn't seem to be a "grid down" likelihood in this. That brings up the workers who could get quarantined at their job sites though. Utility workers at water plants and electric plants might find themselves being kept at their job sites.

Medical folks seem most likely to end up not being able to go home. 

The analogy to a snow emergency above seems most apt. Hunker down and wait it out. 

Comment 13 Mar 2020

Because preventative measures are how you keep from having a Black Plague. You act before the potential Black Plague becomes a Black Plague. It isn't the odds. It is the stakes. And the stakes for not taking preventative measures is catastrophe. 

See Philly in 1918: https://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/philadelphia-threw-wwi-parade-gave-thousands-onlookers-flu-180970372/

Comment 11 Mar 2020

By the by here is a story on Krusen from a couple of years ago

Within 72 hours of the parade, every bed in Philadelphia’s 31 hospitals was filled. In the week ending October 5, some 2,600 people in Philadelphia had died from the flu or its complications. A week later, that number rose to more than 4,500. With many of the city’s health professionals pressed into military service, Philadelphia was unprepared for this deluge of death.

.....

Krusen’s decision to let the parade go on was based on two fears. He believed that a quarantine might cause a general panic. In fact, when city officials did close down public gatherings, the skeptical Philadelphia Inquirer chided the decision. “Talk of cheerful things instead of disease,” urged the Inquirer on October 5. “The authorities seem to be going daft. What are they trying to do, scare everybody to death?”

And, like many local officials, Krusen was under extreme pressure to meet bond quotas, which were considered a gauge of patriotism. Caught between the demands of federal officials and the public welfare, he picked wrong.

Those who forget...

Comment 11 Mar 2020

But this is always how the apocalypse starts isn't it? There is a disease and they don't want to panic anyone and don't want to close the business and risk those in charge don't want to take the risk of being the panicky official and then it is out of control and too late to do anything. 

When the influenza epidemic of 1918 infected a quarter of the U.S. population, killing tens of millions of people, seemingly small choices made the difference between life and death.

As the disease was spreading, Wilmer Krusen, Philadelphia’s health commissioner, allowed a huge parade to take place on September 28; some 200,000 people marched. In the following days and weeks, the bodies piled up in the city’s morgues. By the end of the season, 12,000 residents had died.

In St. Louis, a public-health commissioner named Max Starkloff decided to shut the city down. Ignoring the objections of influential businessmen, he closed the city’s schools, bars, cinemas, and sporting events. Thanks to his bold and unpopular actions, the per capita fatality rate in St. Louis was half that of Philadelphia. (In total, roughly 1,700 people died from influenza in St Louis.)

In the coming days, thousands of people across the country will face the choice between becoming a Wilmer Krusen or a Max Starkloff.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/coronavirus-cancel-everything/607675/

The Governor has chosen to by follow the path of Wilmer Krusen. 

Comment 11 Mar 2020

How can you applaud the governor for this waffling spineless stance while at the same time saying we are behind and dithering? Am I the only one who saw "Contagion?" What if this thing mutates and becomes airborne at the Cavs game? Hoping for the best and that this is "just the flu" and it will just be one more time of much ado about nothing is not a strategy. This is the kind of thing you're supposed to be "wrong" about from an overabundance of caution. An overabundance of caution is what makes you "wrong" about it. 

Comment 11 Mar 2020

Because this isn't the same sort of risk as choosing not to wear your seatbelt. If you do not wear your seatbelt and the risk of a crash is realized you are the only one harmed. If you get this virus you can harm others who can then harm others. If you go to an event thereafter you risk everyone you come into contact with so your family has also risked going to the event and now everyone they come into contact with has taken your risk. 

Just because scary stories sell papers and drive clicks doesn't mean there isn't a reason to be scared. 

Comment 11 Mar 2020

I like point 8:

8. When public health works, the result is the least newsworthy thing ever: Nothing happens.

If this all fizzles out and you start feeling like "Wah, all that fuss for nothing?" send a thank you note to your local department of public health for a job well done. They are working very, very hard right now. Fingers crossed for that outcome.

Comment 11 Mar 2020

I think it is kind of spineless. Judging by this thread, yes, he is going to get excoriated for hitting the panic button on 3 cases. However that would be the right thing to do. He is hedging his bets but he's going to "lose" on this either way.

The correct thing to do is to "hit the panic button" and take it on the chin when it then doesn't become a problem instead of hoping it is "just the flu" and won't become a problem big enough he will not be forgiven for not acting more strongly here at the start. Being wrong is potentially a catastrophe. It is hard to respect this sort of waffling in a person who has the responsibility to make these hard decisions. 

Comment 04 Mar 2020

The movie is a very faithful adaptation of the book. The movie in no way does the novel a dis-service as is sometimes the case with the-book-was-better.