January 19 was our first case. So a little longer. The swine flu by comparison, had infected about a million in the same timeline. This may be a good comparison for control measures. We closed some schools in 2009 but that was about it.
Your numbers are possibly correct for assumed cases, but it's still too early to tell.
For the swine flu: by early June of 2009 (3 months in) there were almost 26,000 confirmed cases (as it was first detected in the US in early April 2009). In hindsight, they now state that they think there were an estimated 1 million cases by that end of June 2009.
For Covid-19: it has been 80 days since the first case, and 37 days since our cases topped 100, and we have ~430k confirmed cases of Covid19. In 37 days we have increased our cases nearly 430,000. Have we detected all of our cases? Likely not. But if we did, then we would be at about half the transmission rate of the swine flu, by first case in the country. I imagine that we are underestimating by at least half, so it is likely that we are near or over 1 million cases in the country.
So, maybe our cases will go up in hindsight, but we are well ahead of confirmed cases right now.
What else is also interesting for comparison of deaths from each disease.
For swine flu: killed ~12k people in one year (April 2009-April 2010), although the number of confirmed deaths was actually only ~3,500. Much like today, they had issues 10 years ago with estimating the deaths versus what is confirmed. I am sure that the 12k+ number is more accurate, but just remember that when we are attempting to figure the actual number of fatalities in the future. By November 15, 2009, 7 months in, there were only ~4000 deaths from swine flu. I don't know how many deaths actually occurred from swine flu by that June 26, 2009 date, but by September of 2009, there were 593 confirmed deaths from swine flu.
For Covid-19: As of today, we are near 15k deaths from Covid19, only ~3 months in, and the first Covid19 fatality was on Feb. 29, just 35 days ago.
Yes, it appeared that swine flu may have been more viral (although it is inconclusive, to me) but the death toll is going to be much greater. Will there be a higher Case Fatality Rate? Probably. Will it stay at 3.5%? Probably not (it will decrease).
Both Swine flue and Covid-19 are diseases caused by incredibly aggressive viruses. Both viruses can cause issues in a short amount of time. But it appears that this novel coronavirus is likely as virulent (in ability to spread amongst the population) while being much more deadly. We haven't reached the end of the story, but that's currently what it is looking like.
And while I believe that most of the cases of Covid19 that we are seeing through today (or really recently) actually happened before the lockdown, we have (in my opinion) nearly as high a rate of cases and many multiples the amount of fatalities through the first 3 months.
Lastly, yes, we also have confounding factors such as whether this is going to be seasonal, and how we are collecting data fro cases and deaths. Its imperfect. Regardless, Covid-19 pandemic appears to be much worse than swine flu at least in the number of deaths, and possibly equally as bad in how it spreads.