Here is the push back I will give about this comparison: we already know what this Michigan team is. 2016 Penn State was a mystery. We know that Shea Patterson is not good. We have a fairly large sample size that proves it. He is not magically going to get better, I don't care what anybody says. 2016 was Trace McSorley's first year as the full time starter at Penn State. He turned out to be one of the best QB's in the conference. But he was a mystery coming into that season, and it took some time for him to get his sea legs under him.
Michigan doesn't have a Saquon Barkley. Saquon exploded in 2016, and we knew he was pretty talented from his performances in 2015. There is nobody like that on Michigan's offense. Yes, Michigan has oodles of talent at WR, but we know they aren't going to use them effectively (see; Patterson, Shea). Saquon is not walking through that door.
Joe Moorhead was extremely successful as an offensive coach at Fordham before James Franklin discovered him. What we didn't know was how well he would adjust to the Big Ten, but we knew he had been successful calling plays and installing offenses before. Gattis has never called plays before. Saban let him walk instead of giving him the keys to the offense. That is very telling to me. He's no Joe Moorhead.
We have seen all this from Michigan before. They won't completely collapse, but 9-3/8-4 is pretty much a train wreck when you think about their asinine expectations coming into the season.