Who knows where #1 Ferrari (projected 197/285) and #2 Amos (projected 184/197) end up. I'd say that Amos (has trained at the ORTC) is more likely to end up a Buckeye than Ferrari. Ferrari has true frosh Captain Kerk at 285 while either could fit in at 197 with Moore being a senior. Already on the roster in the upper weights are true frosh and former #1 Captain Kerk at 285, RS soph and former #6 Singletary (NCAA Q) at 285 or 197, RS frosh and former top 5 Hoffman at 184, and of course senior 3x AA Moore. Schumate at 197 could be a problem unless either he or Amos can go 184 when Hoffman is done. Amos is wrestling 220 this year, so 184 seems like a stretch for him. And Schumate wrestled 195 as a HS frosh, begging the question of whether or not he'll grow a little bit. There's been logjams before in the lineup and Ryan seems to make it work out.
Here's the top 10 from 2015 (http://d1collegewrestling.net), this year's senior class (if no one redshirted). Five of this group AA'ed this year (all except Anthony Valencia, Massa, Kemmerer, Brock and Benick).
1. Anthony Valencia Bellflower CA 174 Arizona State
2. Logan Massa St. John's MI 165 Michigan
3. Zahid Valencia Bellflower CA 184 Arizona State
4. Myles Martin Penns Grove NJ 184 Ohio State
5. Vincenzo Joseph Pittsburgh PA 149 Penn State
6. Matt Kolodzik Bellbrook OH 141 Princeton
7. Nick Piccinnini East Setauket NY 125 Oklahoma State
8. Michael Kemerer Murrysville PA 149 Iowa
9. Kaid Brock Stillwater OK 133 Oklahoma State
10. Lance Benick Fridley MN 197 Arizona State
And you'll note that due to redshirts and injuries, these are not all seniors, affirming that my assumptions are not accurate. But this does give an example of a top 10 group and how difficult it is to AA. Benick, BTW, left AZST and went to a DIII college.
For example, if you look at one year (2019) and one category (Top 10), 25 of the 80 AA's were top 10 recruits in their class. If you assume that four classes cycle thru each NCAA tourney, and that the rankings were evenly distributed by weight class, then 62.5% of the 40 top 10 recruits (2015-2018) AA'ed in 2019. The problem is the assumptions I laid out are not accurate. The rankings are not evenly distributed by weight class, and there likely are wrestlers from the class of 2014 or even 2013 in the 2019 AA's.
But let's pretend that these assumptions are accurate. This three-year sample averaged out, would suggest that 56% of top 10 recruits would AA, 42% of top 20 recruits would AA, 34% of the top 30 recruits would AA, and 16% of top 100 recruits would AA.
I've seen a few of these analyses, but the article referenced above (https://intermatwrestle.com/articles/21874) provides this info:
"When looking at the All-Americans from the last three NCAA tournaments, here is the ratio of All-Americans based on top recruiting rankings:
Top 10: (2017) 19/80 (2018) 23/80 (2019) 25/80
Top 20: (2017) 33/80 (2018) 32/80 (2019) 35/80
Top 30: (2107) 40/80 (2018) 38/80 (2019) 45/80
Top 100: (2017) 60/80 (2018) 63/80 (2019) 67/80"
It's nice to hear some confirmation of my "off the cuffs" remarks (from someone who might have insider info). I have no insider info, but just throw out my thoughts as an avid Buckeye fan.
"PSU recruiting was 21st in 2015, then 2nd, 5th and 1st before this latest ranking (22nd) came out."
By comparison, tOSU's recruiting over this same time span was 6th, 10th, 7th, 2nd and 1st (this year).
You can pay at the door. If they're wrestling someone like Iowa, there may be a line, but most of the time you shouldn't have too much of a wait. PSU and MICH should both be away this year.
Good to have you back, Andy. PSU's recruiting this year did take a step back, but depending on 6th year eligibility, redshirts, greyshirts, and Olympic redshirts, you don't need to hit every year, just most years. In a normal situation, with one extra year built in, this year's teams will be from the 2015-2019 classes. PSU recruiting was 21st in 2015, then 2nd, 5th and 1st before this latest ranking (22nd) came out. And they survived that 21st ranking in 2015 just fine, winning 4 straight NCAA championships. This year's preseason predictions are less certain than normal, with Olympic redshirts in play along with PSU asking for three 6th year waivers (AA Rasheed, NCAA champ Cassar, and Kent St transfer, Conel, also an AA). I think PSU'll be tough to beat if all the 6th years play out (and they probably will). Iowa is probably in the best position to challenge them. However, after PSU loses 2x NCAA champ Joseph, NCAA champ Hall and their three 6th year guys, they suddenly seem challengable. They'll still have some good young guys coming up the system, but I believe tOSU is right there with them in 2021 and beyond, perhaps even a step ahead. Last year's class, #2 overall, along with a #1 class this year will set the stage for success. From the class of 2018 - I think Sasso can challenge for a title next year, and I see Hoffman as an AA his freshman year. I think Heinselman will AA next year as he hits the weights and grows into 125. And I think Mattox could challenge for an AA at 157. This year's group includes #1 overall, Kerkvliet, who could AA whenever he steps on the mat (not sure if he redshirts), as could #3 overall Kharchla. I think Hayes will shrink to 141 next year and be a top 4 guy there. While he wrestled 157 this year, just two seasons ago he challenged McKenna for the 141 spot before challenging Jordan for the 149 spot last year. Other veterans like 3x AA Moore and 2x AA Pletcher will position tOSU to be in the conversation next year, but our best days may come in 2021.
PSU was #1 last year and tOSU #2. This is from Intermat.
1. Penn State
Top 100 recruits: No. 6 Seth Nevills (Clovis, Calif.), No. 10 Joe Lee (Evansville Mater Dei, Ind./NLWC), No. 12 Michael Beard (Malvern Prep, Pa.), No. 14 Aaron Brooks (North Hagerstown, Md.), No. 15 Roman Bravo-Young (Sunnyside, Ariz.), No. 20 Gavin Teasdale (Jefferson-Morgan, Pa.), and No. 37 Brody Teske (Fort Dodge, Iowa)
Just last season he batted McKenna for that spot, the loser getting 149. This year he couldn’t beat Jordan so he goes 157. I think he goes 141.
First off, great NCAA coverage, Andy. No one covers the Buckeye wrestlers like you. Next year will be a strange one to predict. It's an Olympic year, so some wrestlers may choose to take an Olympic redshirt (RS). You have to qualify for this, but Kollin Moore and Hoffman are eligible even tho they have already taken a normal RS. All the top teams have guys like this that may or may not take an Olympic RS next year. Snyder broke the mold in 2016 and wrestled only 6 matches during the regular season prior to B10s. Instead, he was traveling the world beating the best in the world. He is the first NCAA wrestler that did this. The question is, will others follow his lead.
The other big issue is the 6th year factor. Normally there's a guy here or there spread out across the country that qualifies for a 6th year due to the loss of 2 years of wrestling b/c of injuries. Not a lot of these are granted, but 3 AAs got them this year, including NCAA champ Ashnault. PSU has three that are applying for a 6th year for next season, NCAA champ Cassar, 2018 AA Rasheed and transfer Conel (from Kent St), an AA in 2018. If they get those three 6th year guys, to go along with former NCAA champs Hall and Joseph, and AAs RBY and Lee, no one's going to beat them next year.
The question is, what will tOSU do with RSs. Will they sit a bunch of guys? The list of guys eligible for either a normal RS or Olympic RS includes Heinselman, Pletcher, Hoffman, Moore, plus all incoming freshmen. Others could qualify this summer, So does tOSU sit a bunch and look to 2021 or go for broke and put the best team on the mat (Kharch, Kerk, etc)?
I don't think PSU looks beatable w/ 3 6th year guys. But in 2021 they come back to the field (tOSU, OKST and IOWA). And this year's recruiting class, Kharch, Kerk and Jordan Decatur, along with this year's group of Heinselman, Sasso and Hoffman will set the table for titles once again. These guys remind me of freshmen like NaTo, Bo and Snyder. There is a bright future as a Buckeye fan.
And I'm sorry this was so long. I've been absent for a while and needed to vent.
I think he's probably two years away, but Heinselman may be tough to bump out of the lineup. I thought he was too small this year, but after a year in the weight room, I think he'll be a solid 125 next year, and will hopefully get on the podium.
Yes, I know Andy wrote calendar year. I just thought that the whole season was a better barometer of his status. He's obviously not a top 5 this year, but in play for a 6-8 spot on the podium IMO. And 157 is not really his ideal weight. He lost out to Micah for the 149 spot (and perhaps McKenna for 141) and bumped up.
"The loss that will bother the staff to some extent is Ke-Shawn Hayes' loss to No. 3 Ryan Deakin at 157 pounds. Hayes falls to 15-5 on the season – which is still a strong record – he is now 1 for 4 against ranked opponents in calendar year 2019."
Actually Hayes is 4-5 against ranked opponents this season having beat (Flo rankings) #8 Barone, ILL, #15 Pagdilao, AZST, #16 Rahmani, PITT, and #17 Van Brill, RUT to go with 5 losses vs #2, #3, #4 #5 and #8. If you're talking calendar year and not season, then he's 1-3. And he's facing #1 Nolf this weekend.
He’s had some decent wins but right now is appropriately ranked 17.
The wrestling program does have an elite strength and conditioning program. Perhaps Heinselman hasn’t been around long enough to benefit from it yet. But he will.
To be fair to Iowa, the B10 determines the schedule and not all 14 teams wrestle each other each year. I think there's some kind of rotating schedule. They do wrestle OKST every year, which is probably the 4th best team in the NCAAs. And I think tOSU and PSU rarely wrestle this traditional powerhouse. Back in the good ol days, OKST was the best in the land, and Iowa St, Iowa and OK were all chasing them while the rest of the schools in the NCAAs rarely took the crown. That all changed in the late 70s when Dan Gable took the helm at Iowa, and dominated the NCAAs for close to 20 years. OKST has remained one of the top programs, but has not won it all since 2006 when they won their 3rd straight.
I stand corrected (tho actually I am sitting). I follow six polls and four of those six do tournament team rankings while all six do individual rankings. The four that do team rankings are Flowrestling, Intermat, Wrestler Insider Magazine and The Open Mat. The first three all have tOSU in the 2nd spot, closely followed by Iowa, while The Open Mat has Iowa in 2nd closely followed by tOSU.
Every poll that does tournament rankings have tOSU 2nd, although Iowa is a close 3rd and Michigan a somewhat distant 5th.
He was 120 last year although I think he’s still a small 125 (might weigh 130). I think next year he’ll be a a full sized 125.
Here's something I wrote on another site:
This match has many matches that could go either way. The true tossups IMO are 157 and 285. tOSU is favored per rankings at 157, but Pantaleo is a 2x AA who beat Micah rather easily last year 2x. He's had a rough start this year and tried dropping to 149 to avoid Nolf and win an NCAA title. That plan was scrapped as he struggled at Midlands losing to, among others, tOSU 149 backup Sasso. Hayes has had some nice wins at his new weight, beating #15, #14 and #11 while taking losses to #4, #2 and #12. At 285 we have Parris higher ranked, altho with a loss to Singletary 15-9. I'm not sure if Parris was one off, or if Singletary does better against smaller 285s. This would be a big win for Singletary if he can duplicate his earlier win and move him up in the rankings.
And then there's a couple of matches that could flip w/o being huge upsets, notably 125 and 133. At 125 we don't know who MICH sends out, but either Assad or Mattin (both Ohio guys) could be in Malik's range. I would say Mattin is favored, but not overwhelmingly, and Assad is a coin toss. A win vs Mattin should get Malik into the top 20 next week. Micic is favored at 133, having beaten Pletcher the last 3x, but has also taken a loss to Pletcher. 141 could be considered in this group with a #2 vs #5, but I feel the top 2 at 141 are a level above the field.
Comfortable wins for tOSU should come from 149, 184 and 197, while MICH should get wins at 165 and 174. I think all 3 tOSU's wins here should be bonus wins, while tOSU could hold both of these 2 MICH wins to decisions.
I'll do that, Andy. I'm sending you an email.
Great preview, Andy. I'll be in the Schott tonight for this battle. While Hayes has the higher rank, Pantaleo is a 2x AA and beat Micah pretty easily 2x last year. He has had a rough start this year, but this could be a key match to determine the winner of the dual. The other key match is 285, where Singletary beat Parris earlier in the year, but Parris has some impressive wins since then and is higher ranked. As with 157, this match could determine the winner. Malik could get a win, altho it's less likely if it's Mattin vs Assad. And you can't count Pletcher out, altho since his win over Micic he's lost 3 straight. Should be a good one tonight.
Hayes was pitted against Hilday who was the NCAA #1 seed last year and finished 2nd in NCAAs. Hilday's taken a couple of losses this year but is still considered one of the top 157s. And Hayes is really a 149 (perhaps even a 141) wrestling up a weight or two. Hayes is taking one for the team by filling the 157 slot, as Micah did last year.