Great analysis and write-up. I’ve actually had the exact same prediction of 38-28 in my head as well.
I expect a fast start from both teams (two offensive juggernauts), with the Bucks’ ability to adjust, along with an advantage on both sides of the LOS, being the deciding factor as the game goes on. I can see JK and the line really wearing them down in the 4th quarter, with a late score to put things out of reach.
Will be very interesting to come back and compare the actual game stats to your predictions/analysis.