I hate the SEC. ‘Bama’s convincing, back-to-back wins over Miss St. and LSU, combined with wins by Tenn & Ark have propelled the Tide into the #1 spot in F/+ ratings with a 1% lead over Clemson. The Tide have wins over five P-5 teams that are guaranteed to finish above .500 and wins over two more that will finish .500 or better. No matter; ‘Bama still lost to Ole Miss, who got crushed by Memphis, who lost to undefeated Houston. The Cougars are the 2015 SEC Champion…for now.
Observations from Week 11’s data
1) The Tide is High. ‘Bama jumped 6% in F/+ to 64.8%, largely due to their victory over a P-5 opponent with a 7–3 record. Tenn and Ark winning upped the Tide’s total to seven wins over P-5 opponents with current records over .500. ‘Bama now holds the #1 spot in FEI and #2 spot in S&P+. Clemson is only 1% behind the Tide at 63.7%, and held onto the #1 S&P+ spot but slipped to #2 in FEI. The biggest mover among the top teams was OU, improving its F/+ by 6% to 51.5% and claiming the #3 position. Close behind the Sooners are #4 ND (49%) and #5 tOSU (48.8%). Basically, the Sooners, Irish and Buckeyes are in a 3-way tie for #3.
Clemson, tOSU and OU remain the only teams with S&P+ ratings in the Top 20 for both Offense and Defense. FSU is still the only other team with S&P+ Offense and Defense ratings in the Top 25. My CFP Final four prediction remains: Clemson, tOSU, ‘Bama and OU.
2) I Fall Down. LSU, Miss St., Utah and UCLA fell following losses this week. UCLA fell farthest dropping six places to #30 in F/+. LSU and Miss St. took big hits dropping five spots each, and Utah lost three spots landing at #19. Several teams lost ground in F/+, or were leapfrogged, as they struggled in wins against inferior opponents. Most notably, TCU plummeted 11 places losing 9% in F/+ with a 6-point victory over winless KU; the Horned Frogs are now #24. Iowa lost 5% in F/+ and slid six places to #23. ND, TTUN, USC, oSu, Houston and Northwestern all lost percentage points and a spot or two in F/+ ratings despite winning.
3) Jump Around. There’s nothing like upsetting a good team to shake up the F/+ ratings. Congrats to Ark, Ore, Pitt and WSU for making large jumps in F/+ with big performances. The fact that teams, which they previously lost to, continue to win doesn’t hurt. The Hogs improved their F/+ by 10% and jumped 15 places to #22. ORE improved by 8% and sits at #33, a 15-place improvement. Pitt thumped Duke, and added 6% to their F/+ landing 12 spots higher at #39. WSU also added 6% in F/+, which makes them good for #51 – the AP voters who have them ranked are totally discounting the Cougs opening loss to FCS Portland St. SMDH.
4) The Last Unicorn. Houston remains the last unbeaten Group of Five team in the AAC. The Cougars need only beat UConn and Navy to claim the AAC West and a chance to win the conference. That being said, Houston currently sits at #28 in F/+. The highest G-5 team in F/+ currently is Navy at #10. The Midshipmen need to post wins at Tulsa and at Houston to earn their shot at a first ever conference championship. Not to be forgotten, Toledo could still be in the hunt for G-5 bid for a New Year’s Six bowl game. The Rockets likely need to win out and the AAC winner to lose along the way, to have a shot at being the highest ranked G-5 team.
5) CFP Top 25 Matchups. 2-1 again (‘Bama, OU, Memphis) – at least I’m consistent if nothing else. Had I stuck with F/+, I would have been 3-0. That’s what I get for picking against Tom Herman. 15-7 for the season ain’t too bad at this point. This week features five Top 25 matchups that will provide a lot of clarity to the CFP, or they'll just generate chaos.
#20 Northwestern @ #25 Wisconsin. Northwestern has gotten no love from advanced analytics all season. The Wildcats are the lowest ranked team in F/+ (#54) that is ranked in the AP and CFP Top 25. Wisconsin’s defense in Camp Randall will be too much for Northwestern. Badgers improve to 9-2.
#3 tOSU vs #9 MSU. Your game of the week. The Buckeyes are ahead of MSU in S&P+ and FEI. They are ranked higher than MSU across every category of S&P+ for offense and defense, except Passing Down efficiency and Strength of Schedule (the Buckeyes can’t play themselves). The Buckeyes win this one hands down.
#6 oSu vs. #10 Baylor. This should be an interesting game. Statistically, Baylor is still the #1 offense in S&P+; Ok State is #20. On defense, the Bears are #74, but the Cowpokes aren’t much better at #51. The individual matchup is where the issue is: Ok State is 188th in rush offense, while Baylor is 22 in rush defense. The game is in Stillwater, but I don’t think that’s going to matter to a Baylor team that is pissed off. The Bears hand the Cowpokes their first loss of the season.
#7 OU vs. #18 TCU. TCU was lucky to escape last week with a win over KU; and they lost Boykin. OU is coming off a huge win over Baylor. Stoops knows he’s got a shot at being the first Big XII team in the CFP. No coach in FBS made it to more BCS games than Stoops. Statistically, even with Boykin, the Horned Frogs were only marginally better than the Sooners; but on defense they don’t hold a candle to OU. The Sooners tally their tenth win on their way to Bedlam.
#23 Ore vs. #24 USC. The Pac 12 is a f-ing mystery to me. Despite three early losses, USC has never dropped lower than 15th in F/+ and 12th in S&P+. Even at 3-3, the Trojans were in the Top 15 because of their statistical efficiency. The Ducks, however, started at #3 in F/+, dropped as low as #58, and have climbed to #33 this week. Their offenses are closely ranked, but USC has the better defense. Vegas has ORE as 4.5 point favorite, but I like USC.
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