Week three games are in the books, and as expected upsets are beginning to have an effect on the F+ Ratings as well as the AP Top 25. The S&P+ portion of the ratings still carries some latency from last season, but that will disappear after Week 4 games. The FEI (Fremeau Efficiency Index) effects of last season will continue to diminish through Week 7 before they only use this season's data.
Observations from Week Three’s data (Table below)
1) Cream of the Crop. ‘Bama and tOSU held their spots at the top of the F+ Ratings. ‘Bama holds the edge in FEI and S&P+ by a few percentage points. tOSU actually lost ground in F+ rating, dropping 3.2%. I assume this is mostly due to their less than impressive offensive output. The Tide’s F+ rating actually went up 3.5% from last week despite the loss to Ole Miss. My only explanation is the 29 first downs, 37 points and 503 yards of offense produced by ‘Bama are keeping their FEI higher than their record suggests. This week ‘Bama faces Louisiana-Monroe (#104 in F+) and the Buckeyes host WMU (#89 in F+); I don’t anticipate much movement.
2) Top 25 Matchups. ‘Bama vs. Ole Miss. Once again, the voters reacted dramatically to a highly ranked team losing: ‘Bama dropped 10 spots in the AP Poll to #12 despite holding the #1 spot in F+. Ole Miss was the big winner in this one, climbing 12 spots in the AP to #3 and rising three spots in the F+ ratings to #4. Looks like the voters may have gotten that one right…for now.
Next weekend there are two PAC 12 matchups between Top 25 teams: #9 UCLA vs. #16 AU and #13 Ore vs. #18 Utah. Both AU and Utah are ranked much higher by the voters than their F+ rating suggests, so I’m sticking with the favorites in both of these.
3) Biggest Losers. Auburn and USC. Both teams lost, and the voters punished them for their poor performances. The Tigers dropped 14 spots in the AP Poll receiving enough votes to rank them #33; not so coincidentally they also dropped 14 places in F+ and sit at #32. Likewise, the Trojans (overvalued last week) dropped 13 spots in the AP Poll landing at #19. That’s five lower than their current F+ rating of #14, but closer than last week when they were ranked six spots higher than the F+ suggested. Call it a market correction, or the voters are just bracketing fire.
Honorable mentions: Oregon dropped six spots in F+ to #9, only four spots from their AP #13 ranking. UCLA, with a 1-point win over BYU, slid from #6 to #12 in F+ but climbed one spot in the AP to #9. Baylor didn’t even play, but they managed to lose 9 places in F+ falling to #13, yet remain the AP #5; I’m guessing that may work itself out on Oct 3, when the Bears face the Red Raiders in Arlington.
4) Biggest Winners. Stanford and Ole Miss. I already covered Ole Miss, so I’ll skip to Stanford. The Cardinal made one of the fastest exits from the Top 25 in Week 1, dropping 20 spots after the loss to NWU. Two weeks later, that’s looking like a ‘much better’ loss to voters and Stanford’s win over USC catapulted them back up to #21 in the AP Poll. That’s still six points lower than their 15th place F+ rating, but a nice correction for a Cardinal team that has yet to fall lower than #19 in F+ this season.
Honorable mentions: LSU climbed five spots in both F+ and the AP after crushing Auburn. FSU, despite a lackluster 14-0 win over BC, jumped seven spots in F+ to #6, which is four spots from their AP #10 ranking. Notre Dame’s big win over Ga Tech jumped the Irish seven places to #7 in F+ and #6 in the AP. WVU moved up 10 places in F+ to #27, which is exactly where the AP voters placed the Mountaineers.
5) Undervalued. ‘Bama, ASU, BSU, Va Tech, KSU, Ark. These teams are all 10 or more places lower in the AP Poll than their F+ Ratings suggest. Good news for Buckeye fans - the Hokies are steadily climbing the ladder in F+ (26 to 25 to 22): Va Tech’s F+ rating is 21 places above its #43 spot in AP votes. Second order wins will begin boosting S&P+ over time.
6) Overvalued. Ok St, Utah, Arizona, NWU, Temple. These teams are 10 or more places in the AP above their F+ Ratings. Arizona and NWU both sit 23 places higher in the AP Poll than their current F+ ratings; must be a Wildcat thing. As previously stated, the Wildcats of the PAC 12 host UCLA, so I expect a correction for Arizona. The B1G Wildcats won’t face their next test until Oct 3 when Goldie comes to town, and then they travel to Ann Arbor. My guess is NWU loses at least one of those two games and falls out of the Top 25.
8) Head Scratchers. Louisville remains the statistically highest rated team without a win at #43 for F+. The Indiana Hoosiers are the lowest-rated, undefeated team in F+ (#86). Several teams with F+ ratings below #50 received votes in the AP Poll: NC State, Cal, Toledo, Memphis and Houston. NC State has posted big numbers, but they haven’t played anyone of note. Cal put up a lot of points Saturday, but scraped by UT which missed a PAT at the end. Toledo won by a TD in OT over a questionable ISU squad in addition to their epic win over Arkansas. Memphis beat BGSU by three points last Saturday in a shootout. Houston didn’t play. Perhaps the voters are seeing something that’s not in the stats.
Previous Weeks: Week One Week Two
