2018 Week 13 - CFB Analytics vs. AP/CFP Polls

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OhioAgainstTheWorld34's picture

Thanks for the analytics... Appreciate the data... And good read. Go out and dominate on Saturday and let the chips fall where they may... I remember leaving Indy in 2014 and watching that team play and thinking that there is absolutely no way they leave us out. Another effort like that boys and even with an OU win I still think there is a shot.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I agree.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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Hovenaut's picture

Dig it, NB...excellent close to the regular season.

Feeling very good about things, and it's beyond that post-M...igan beatdown glow. I think Ohio State is definitely in business should they take care of business tomorrow night.

Mood...Mr. Mojo Risin out in the open and at the wheel...

BREAK ON THROUGH...
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NavyBuckeye91's picture

And if things don’t go their way...L.A. Woman, you're my woman.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Earle's picture

L.A. Woman gonna have to do...

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OHinTN's picture

These have been great reads all year.  Thanks Navy!

Like you, I think Washington, Memphis, Clemson and Ohio State all win.  I'm hoping Texas can pull it off, but I just don't see it happening this time.  I also don't believe Georgia has enough defense to stop Tua and company and Bama wins pretty easily.  I don't know anything about Boise or Fresno so don't have an opinion on that game.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Here’s where I think UGA gives Bama problems. The Dawgs are #1 in S&P+ on Passing Downs and #3 in S&P+ Passing Defense. 

The only team with a semblance of a passing defense that Bama saw all season was Miss State. But those Bulldogs didn’t have much of a passing attack to exploit Bama’s secondary. Running their QB between the tackles wasn’t going to stress Bama enough to keep Tua and the offense off the field. 

Georgia is fat and away the best offense that Bama will have seen this season. They are more balanced in S&P+ offense than every team except two: Clemson and Bama. 

It’s going to be a good game. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
OHinTN's picture

While I hope you're right about it being a good game, I sure don't want to see Georgia win!

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BuckeyeInOrlando's picture

I appreciate the work you've done on these all season NB91! Thank You! 

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Thanks, BiO. Glad you enjoyed them. 

I may do a NY6 Bowl Game preview. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Gratefulbuck's picture

Don’t forget the Rose Bowl soft parade 

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Earle's picture

Here's to the Buckeyes blowing the Doors off of Northwestern tomorrow night.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

And that they Break on Through past the number five. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Earle's picture

Then I will wake up in the morning and get myself a beer. 

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Buckeye.383's picture

One of my favorite posts I look forward to each week. Thanks for all of your hard work!

While it would be so sweet to see Alabama and their fans on the outside looking in behind OSU, I do not have confidence that the subjective committee would drop them to #5. I can already hear the narrative, "when you look at their whole body of work.....they lost to a top 4 team by 10 (or a close margin) compared to an unranked team by 29." But in that scenario I hope you're right. 

For that reason, as much as I hate to say it, Roll Tide and Hook 'em Horns. Most importantly though, Go Bucks! 

Born, raised, educated, and will die a Buckeye ~ BuckeyeNation

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CaliBuckJDM's picture

I simply want to leave some facts here for all of us to digest as it relates to the CFB playoff discussion:

OU faced teams with an Average Offensive Ranking of 59.25

OSU faced teams with an Average offensive ranking of 71.17

OU Faced teams with an Average defensive ranking of 70.75 (with a B12 Conference Defensive team ranking of 75.75)

OSU faced teams with an Average defensive ranking of 64 (with a B10 Conference Defensive team ranking of 59)

As we know OU’s Offensive Rank is #1 and OU’s Defensive Rank is #111

OSU Offensive Rank is #2 and OSU’s Defensive Rank is #67

The Offensive difference between OU and OSU is 500 yards (in favor of OU) for the season or 41.66 yards per game and 77 TD’s for OU to 64 TD’s for OSU or essentially 1 more TD per game for OU over OSU

The Defensive difference between OU and OSU is 602 yards (In favor of OSU) for the season or 50.17 yards per game and 52 TD’s allowed for OU and 40 TD’s allowed for OSU.  OU is giving up 4 TD’s per game and Osu is giving up 3+ TD’s per game, on average.

Everyone is pointing to the single loss Osu has of 29 points to Purdue, as they should. However why aren’t we examining the full schedule of both teams?

OSU has handed 5 teams their worst loss of the season (Oregon State, Rutgers, Tulane, Michigan State and Michigan). 

OU has handed 2 teams their worst loss of the season (K State and Florida Atlantic)

OU beat Iowa State by 10 points – the same margin of victory Iowa had over ISU

OU beat Army by 7 points, the same Army team that lost to Duke by 20 points

OU beat Texas Tech by 5 points, Mississippi beat Texas Tech by 20 points (TT was playing with their backup qb for 3 qtrs vs. OU)

The point of the above is that while OU is explosive on offense they have not been dominant.  OSU has been far more dominant than OU no matter the alleged “Struggles” OSU has had. 

Let’s examine those struggles.  Everyone points to OSU’s “struggles” against 5-7 Maryland (52-51 @ Maryland) and 4-8 Nebraska (36-31 @ home).  Justifiably so. I have also heard it mentioned that OSU “struggled” against Indiana – the fact is that the 49-26 victory over IU is IU’s second biggest margin of defeat all season (Iowa beat them by 26), so it couldn’t have been that big of a struggle

But there is zero focus on OU’s “struggles” with 5-7 Texas Tech (51-46 @ TT – again, with TT’s back qb for 3 qtrs) or, their struggles with 6-6 Okie State (48-47 @ home holding on very much like OSU did against Maryland with a failed two point conversion at the end) or 3-9 Kansas (55-40 @ home by the way Rutgers have up 55 to Kansas, the only other time Kansas scored above 30 points all season prior to or after playing OU.

OU has given up 40 or more points 5 times.  OSU twice.

The focus of all the talk has been on what OSU failed to do or their singular failure – which was significant.  However, they have the two best victories between the two teams a 1-point win on the road at #12 PSU and a 23 point dominate over #7 Michigan (the #1 defensive team in the country – still).  OU’s best win is a 3-point win on the road giving up 56 points to #16 WVU. 

Take any of this for what you want.  But something is amiss in this CFB evaluation.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Are you using gross yards/points for your offensive and defensive rankings/stats?  If they aren’t opponent adjusted, it’s easy to poke holes in them.  

For example, Ohio State has been allowing their opponents to gain 105% or so of their average rushing yards per game. That’s not good. 

IIRC, OU is allowing about 99% or so. Also not good, but better than the Buckeyes. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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Nutinpa's picture

Interesting write up, Navy.  Good work, my friend. 

A couple of lip outs (to use a golf metaphor).

1.  Unless Bama loses to UGA the way TTUN lost to the Buckeyes, they are in.  Too much inertia going for Bama, win or lose. If Bama does lose -- or if Texas loses, the winner of the Utah - UW game is our next opponent in Pasadena.

2.  Really nit-picking here, but we won't hold NW to 6 points or anything in single-digits.  To my knowledge, we haven't held anyone to a score like that since Rutgers.  Would love to see it, but Fitz and his crew have had too long to prep. I see them scoring 17 - 20.  

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I honestly don’t believe the Committee cares about inertia. If Bama lost, and the Committee kept them in the playoff it would break two previous precedents.

  1. No team has lost their CCG and gotten in. 
  2. No one-loss Conf Champion has been left out in favor of a team that didn’t win their conference, regardless of record. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
NoVAsmitty's picture

Love these updates.  

"LA Woman" is on my top 10 rock singles all time.  "The End," it's ...... yeah ....

I still think Bama wins.  If the Buckeyes can win 42-6, I think the argument would be very strong, if not compelling, that they are # 4, even if OU beats Texas in a close one.  

“I intend to make Georgia howl.” General William Tecumseh Sherman

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

I think you could make an argument for 12-1 OSU or 12-1 OU ahead of Notre Dame. But the Committee won’t do it. Last I heard, Vegas would have OSU, UGA and OU as better than FG favorites over the Irish.  

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
J10's picture

With the number of smart people who use this data, it’s amazing Bama is as big a favorite as they are.

**This space to be filled with an inspirational quote from a famous Buckeye**

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

That’s what has me scratching my head, too. Vegas usually knows, but this year has been strange. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
LawClub's picture

I look forward to this post each week but am I wrong to doubt these computations in that Mich. is still higher rated than the Bucks?  I know it's close and statistically they're tied but after a head to head beat down, seems like there should be more?

 

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LawClub's picture

Thinking about it more, Purdue wouldn't be as high as us after that game.  And it's based on many factors all season long.

 

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Exactly. 

What has really hurt the Buckeyes this year is all the close games. The way S&P+ and FEI work, they include every snap of every game, unless the game is so out of reach that the outcome is assured. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the data from the 4th quarter of the Michigan game isn’t even being counted. OSU was up by 30 at times. 

Compare that to a 1-point overtime win versus Maryland, or a close game with Nebraska. 

The other problem is that the Buckeyes struggled to finish drives early in the year. Those are killers in advanced analytics. 

Then there’s the penalty you pay for playing poorly against poor competition: the Purdue factor. None of the teams above Ohio State have that albatross around their neck. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS