How Confident Are We in the Most "likely" Scenario?

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BrutusB's picture

If OU loses and we win, we're in.

If OU wins big I'm not sure it matters what we do.

Where it gets tricky is if its some kind of subjective in-between, like OU winning by 10 but we win by 17.

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SpaceBuckeye's picture

OU is playing a higher ranked team.

In your tricky scenario, that will be the justification and they'll get in.

Those who say they can and those who say they can't are both right. Which one are you?

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3rdtimesacharm's picture

I have to agree with spacebuckeye on this one. Personally i dont think osu has a chance of getting in unless oklahoma loses. If a 23 point win over number 4 wasnt good enough to jump oklahoma then what can osu realistically do to NW to change that?

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Wargor's picture

Demonstrate consistency.  It is a legitimate question to say, "Where has that team been all year?"  

If we demonstrate that we have turned a corner, can dominate away from home, and have a month of distraction free prep, I can see people being much more confident in the Buckeyes.  

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

This

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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I'm Ron Burgundy's picture

This is a legitimate, logical take on the situation.

Unfortunately I don't think the committee is willing to consider that.  They have been steadfast in their love of Oklahoma despite the many warts.  And they have been steadfast in proclaiming OSU's same warts are why they are inferior.  

OU wins by anything other than 1-3 pt high 50's basketball score and OSU by anything less than 50 pt margin and I don't think the committee considers OSU at all.  They will put on a good show and pretend they stayed up all night and lost sleep over the most difficult decision they ever had to make, but their votes have already been cast.

One week's results where OU is playing a better team than OSU is not going to change their opinion unless they are forced to with an OU loss.

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Cptnvideo's picture

Well, the committee kept TSUN ranked high after we routed them. So the committee could use that to justify us jumping OU in the event we both have close wins.

My favorite team? Whoever is playing TTUN.

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MiamiBuckeye's picture

I think what we have to hope for is either a Texas victory or an unconvincing Oklahoma victory. If Oklahoma beats Texas 41-38 on a last second field goal, and we beat Northwestern 45-3, it will be really hard not to have us jump them. I don't think the committee rates Texas that high, if they did they'd have them in the top 10 like the AP poll does. I think if we can beat the #7 and #21 teams in convincing fashion in back to back weeks, that should give us the edge over an Oklahoma team that wins squeakers against #16 and #14. 

"porque las estirpes condenadas a cien años de soledad no tenían una segunda oportunidad sobre la tierra."

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TShell's picture

It would take more than just a dominant showing by the Bucks to get in. Something along the lines of 59-0 might work though. But just plain dominant, like 42-14 I doubt the needle moves much in our favor.

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SpaceBuckeye's picture

Yeah, they'll say that is the expectation since we are 6 and they're 21.

There is a potential to leave the B1G Champ out 3 years in a row.

Those who say they can and those who say they can't are both right. Which one are you?

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

The 2016 Big Ten champ had two losses, and was replaced by another Big Ten team. So the conference was only “left out” last year. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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JTstan16's picture

OU & Georgia both have to lose. It’s really that cut & dry. Style points vs NW won’t matter if either one of them wins, unfortunately. Oh well. 

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jamesrbrown322's picture

This, I’m afraid, is accurate, my friends. On the bright side, after that fateful night in West Lafayette, if you’d offered Buckeye fans a one-loss top 5 finish topped off with a (probable) Rose Bowl win, nearly all of us would have taken it in a heartbeat.

"Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed, is more important than any other one thing." - Abraham Lincoln

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TeddyKGB's picture

It's not that cut and dry.

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Zach2786's picture

I agree with this as well. The way the committee has the 2 teams ranked and the way their opponents are ranked, I just can’t see anyway OSU jumps Oklahoma without Oklahoma losing. And of course if Georgia wins that that just screws everything all to hell.

The way I see it, no matter what happens, if Ohio Stare wins Saturday night and finishes the season 12-1 Big ten champs with a massive win over a great Michigan team, I’m happy about this season. Do I want to see them get a shot at bama in the semi’s? You damn right!! You can’t win a natty if you don’t play for one. If things dont play out in their favor to make the CFP will I be happy with 12-1 big ten champs and a trip to Pasadena? Absolutely.

Considering how this season started going into fall camp, all the mid season media bullshit that kept dumping gas on the negative fire, to now with the potential of how it can finish, I’m proud of what this team Has positioned themselves for Saturday night. 

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

I disagree. If Georgia comes out and outplays Bama and wins by more than one score, Bama is out. They won’t have a single win over a Top 10 team, and they will not have won their conference. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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Seabass1974's picture

Exactly what happened to Wisconsin last season iirc. 12 - 0 going into the championship lost by one score, didn't get the invite.

The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender. - Woody Hayes

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Same goes for Clemson and UGA. If they lose, they’re out. You can’t justify putting them in ahead of a 1-loss conference champion. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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MiamiBuckeye's picture

What if Oklahoma beats Texas by one point and we beat Northwestern by 60? I don't think it's as simple as "Oklahoma wins and they're in." If Oklahoma's offense sputters and their defense remains trash, an ugly win may not be as good as their ticket punched. 

"porque las estirpes condenadas a cien años de soledad no tenían una segunda oportunidad sobre la tierra."

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BuckeyeInOrlando's picture

Oklahoma plays at noon... SEC at 4... Buckeyes at 8.

Urban will know if he needs to drop 70 on NW, or just beat NW by kickoff.

EDIT: All of us will know...

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Wargor's picture

You aren't wrong, but I'd go with dropping 70 regardless.  If we are to get in, let's do it at #3.  12 wins against 12 wins and stronger performances against shared competition.  

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I'm Ron Burgundy's picture

Clemson game will be going on simultaneously with us.  Even if OU has already won by 50, there still is that small chance Clemson stumbles against Pitt.

Plan should always be to drop 70 regardless.

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Buckeye06's picture

I dunno really

I would think something like 52-17 over NU would get it done if the other game is close, but i'd rather UT just won it by 14, then Bama or UGA won by 35

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Buckeyes17's picture

Interesting takes so far. For some reason, I just have a feeling that if Ohio State wins by 3 plus touchdowns and OU squeaks out a win, we get in, should Georgia lose.

"Khajiit has wares if you have the coin."

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seyekcuB's picture

If we are dominant we are in. If not we need a loss.

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Shane Jammie Utah's picture

Are we overlooking Northwestern?

anything easy ain't worth a damn

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Seabass1974's picture

The fans are, the team is not.

The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender. - Woody Hayes

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allinosu's picture

Yes, most are. They are a solid football team. We put together one complete game and most think now it's a cake walk. Remembering last year when most thought we would blow out Wisconsin and they had the last drive with a chance to win. I'm expecting them to be a little flat after an emotional week and game. The spread is about right.

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Grisle's picture

No one thought we were blowing out Wisky last year unless Haskins was going to be the starter. Hell, many people thought we would lose with JT at QB.

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allinosu's picture

Where were you at. The talk was a 59-0 beat down to erase Iowa. There were some (like me) who thought Haskins should get the nod but that wasn't going to happen. NW is not going down easy.

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3rdtimesacharm's picture

I dont remember a fan consensus predicting a beatdown of wisconsin. I think everyone understood that osu needed a dominate/blowout victory over wisky to get In the playoffs. I dont believe people are looking past NW as much as they understand a loss to NW and playoff talk is pointless. So, everybody is viewing these potential scenarios through the perspective of an impressive win against the cats being needed and not so much assumed. Regardless, it doesnt matter whether the fans are looking past NW it only matters if the players are.

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allinosu's picture

It WAS about the same talk as this year.

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3rdtimesacharm's picture

I dont agree but who really cares? Again, it doesnt matter what fans say. Fans have zero control on outcome so why are you so hung up on this? 

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allinosu's picture

Since you missed my original point I'll repeat that NW will not go down easily.

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3rdtimesacharm's picture

Actually, you missed your own original point which was that OSU fans thought they’d blow out wisky (which is not true) and that OSU will play flat. Im optimistic and think that the buckeye speed at an in door facility will be way too much for NW to overcome and that they actually will go down easily. I know, Im one of those over the top arrogant fans because im confident they’ll handle an 8-4 team that lost to akron. 

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allinosu's picture

I don't know where you were but I was involved in those threads about beating Wisky again like 59-0 to erase Iowa so it was you that missed the point again. As far as NW is concerned, it's a matter of opinion which is a good thing but the other side of it is our team beat Maryland luckily and Nebraska by a hair. NW is very capable of giving us all we can handle but I also feel speed kills and in the end we get a couple of scores late to win 37-17.

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fritziebuck's picture

We're not getting in.  We have the 29-point loss to an unranked team sitting there like the elephant in the room.   Even if OU loses and Bama wins, don't think we're getting in.     

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seyekcuB's picture

Ohio state is in. They are a top 4 team right now.

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NHBuckeye's picture

Well who would in your scenario of OU losing?  You think they will take a 2-loss non-conference champion over a 12-1 conference champion?  I don't see that happening.  Nor do I see them taking UCF at all.

Fields of Dreams

 

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Remington2323's picture

I disagree with you 100%. OU loses and Bama wins we are in like Flynn.

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jamesrbrown322's picture

If OU wins or Bama loses, OSU is out IMO, convincing win or not.

"Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed, is more important than any other one thing." - Abraham Lincoln

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TheDizzle's picture

SEC Fans (Youtube) did an analysis of Ohio State vs Oklahoma. Encourage everyone to watch it

Link: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ya1XwXYq3eI

"The hate of men will pass, and dictators die, and the power they took from the people will return to the people. And so long as men die, liberty will never perish" - Charlie Chaplin

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Scuba_Steve's picture

In your scenario, the #4 (UGA) AND #5 (OU) team would lose - and you are telling me the #6 team (OSU) would not move up?  That is crazy talk.  Ohio State would be a 12-1 Conference Champion with the most impressive win (#7 Michigan) than any win by either UGA (#9 UF) or OU (#16 WVU).  Ohio State would also be riding a 5-game winning streak, while both UGA and OU would've lost their last game.  The only other would be for UCF to jump back over Ohio State with their win over unranked Memphis.  Michigan couldn't jump us.  3-loss non-division winning Florida or LSU couldn't jump us.  

I have zero idea where you've come up with that scenario.  

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tcm1968's picture

My confidence in getting in if that plays out is REALLY low. We need Bama to win and then a loss from Clemson or Oklahoma... I just don't see how winning against NW moves the needle if Oklahoma wins.. 

It's already baked in imo.. All we heard last night was Ohio State will crush Northwestern and Oklahoma will score at least 1 more point then Texas and if that's what the perception already is it tells me we've lost the eye test to Oklahoma. The committee thinks on a neutral field they'd beat us. Wish they would just say that instead of talking about good losses and the bs that's meaningless.. it's all eye test..

The interesting thing though is that Oklahoma game is at noon... Bucks will know exactly what they need to do to get in... or at least have a chance to get in....  If Oklahoma wins at noon bet the over!!!! 

Go Bucks!

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ShawneeBuck74's picture

The committee has made it clear that we lost the eye test to Oklahoma, they never praise us. They talk bad about our defense. They get gooey eyed when talking about OU and make tons of excuses or gloss over their defense.  

I half think that the powers that be don’t want to see OSU rewarded this season because of the Zach Smith stuff. Honestly, even yesterday you had an ESPN reporter tweeting about Urban applauding abuse.

You win with people. 

And so forth...

9 Units Strong!

 

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jthailey47's picture

We def don't wanna look past the Wildcats. I just think this Northwestern team is just a bit too "tough & gritty" for us to whip in the fashion we need to. We certainly can do it to them and won't be surprised if we do. But going into TTUN I had been waiting for us to truly whip a worthy team once, let alone in back to back games. 

Our loss is historically bad. OU has a chance to avenge their only loss. I watched the first game. I think Texas is about to get housed this time. 

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actionstanleyjackson's picture

I think osu beat northwestern about 38-17

Stay golden, Ponyboy.

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JohnnyKozmo's picture

If they are going to line up and try to run between the tackles they’ll be behind 3 scores in no time.  They need to spread things out and try to get quick passes out to the outside.  If I’m Schiano, I’m pressing with wade and Okudah on the the outside. Their OL vs the Buckeyes DL is a big mismatch. Nw knows this.   Thorson won’t be holding the ball more than 2 secs if he can help it.  

You're too stupid to have a good time. -Dalton

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actionstanleyjackson's picture

I think it will be Oklahoma. They are making excuses for them weekly.

Stay golden, Ponyboy.

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Seabass1974's picture

For the OP, if all things go as they should based on favorites. It will be Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma. I think OU is in a win and they're in situation and has nothing to do with how other things shake out. At least this is the way I feel the committee is leaning.

The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender. - Woody Hayes

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Keze's picture

OU has to lose, just the feeling I got after listening to that committee dude.

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Atl_Buckeye72's picture

Agreed....He basically said that they don't care about the discussion about the lack of defense and that the W is all that mattered

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Ahh Saturday's picture

OSU needs to focus all their attention and all their effort  and all their respect on Northwestern this week. Play with the focus we showed against Michigan and we will dominate that game. Spend this weekend thinking about Oklahoma and committees and style points and we’ll be lucky to leave Indy with a win.

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AZBuck LHC's picture

100% agree! Hopefully its just a bunch of bored Eleven Warriors readers that are engaged in this pointless debate and not the players and coaches. Can't argue the merits till all the information is available(Saturday's games). We'll see what happens in the games and then the discussion can happen. In any event, its out of our control.

Buckeye B

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Dasniksder's picture

What happens if OU wins a tight one and Murray is injured or Georgia rallies from 20 down after Tua gets hurt? I’m not cheering for an injury, just saying there are a lot of different scenarios.

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PhxBuckeye's picture

I'm not sure any of it matters if OU (University of Oklahoma, why do they do it backwards?) wins. I've never been a big conspiracy theorist but that fact that Iowa state magically appeared in the top 25 the last two weeks and Northwestern dropped last week has me believing. Northwestern dropped just enough that when we beat them they will no longer be a top 25 team. Same thing happened last year when Fresno State magically appeared in the final rankings to give bama a top 25 win. OU loses and we win we are in. outside of that I'm not even sure a 59-0 win can get us in. It sure would be fun though.

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Atl_Buckeye72's picture

I'm not sure that I buy into your conspiracy theory (although there have many questionable rankings through the years) but I completely agree that If OU wins and Bama wins OU is in and we are out. The committee made that clear last night by putting OU ahead of us. With them playing the higher ranked team we need them to lose to get in, and of course us win

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NoMad Buck's picture

I think if OU wins they are in, I don't think it matters if they win by 1 or 30. The offense has propped OU up in the eyes of the committee and they can't get past the Purdue loss when it comes to us. Outside of a loss by OU this weekend, I don't see that changing.

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buckguyfan1's picture

For me, it boils down to this...  62-39   

I'm very satisfied with 2018.

Go Bulldogs  Go Longhorns Go Buckeyes

Yes, f bama     f ttun

Simplify...

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jamesrbrown322's picture

Northwestern beat Purdue. OU has revenge on their mind. I don’t fine the above scenario to actually be the most likely. 

"Always bear in mind that your own resolution to succeed, is more important than any other one thing." - Abraham Lincoln

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brothadudeguy's picture

What does Purdue have to do with anything?

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3rdtimesacharm's picture

Michigan state and minnisota also beat purdue...

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brothadudeguy's picture

Is everyone just assuming that Notre Dame is a lock at this point? If OSU dominates northwestern then how in the world can you say that OSU isn't a top 4 team? It's about the 4 BEST teams. Key word is BEST!!! I don't think it is likely to happen but I wouldn't be surprised if the final rankings looked like this 

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Ohio State 
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Notre Dame
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BrutusB's picture

ND went undefeated. They’re in. It’s not up for debate. 

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brothadudeguy's picture

Sure they probably deserve it but after watching them do you really think they are one of the best 4?

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Wargor's picture

I don't.  And I'd be fine with them at #5.  But yeah, it isn't going to happen.  It may take this year to get that through everyone's head.  Perhaps in 5-10 years we will be able to say, "Yeah, a 12-0 ND isn't that big of a deal.  Remember what happened in 2018?

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brothadudeguy's picture

I agree because I believe that whoever Notre Dame is matched up with the will get blasted.

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Buckeyes17's picture

Idk I am just not so sure.

1 - I think Texas can win again.

2 - I think we get in if we blow out NW. Now the goal is just to win and I will be happy but if we can blow them out... we are in pretty good shape.

"Khajiit has wares if you have the coin."

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NoMad Buck's picture

I'm not so sure NW is going to be as much of a pushover as everyone thinks. Their style of play in slowing the game down and limiting possessions certainly doesn't lend itself to a blowout type game.

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3rdtimesacharm's picture

Possibly but I like the chances more than in most games against teams like NW. I dont see the bucks sleeping on them since it is the B1G ccg. Not having to deal with cold, snowy, and rainy conditions also helps with the buckeye speed advantage.

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Buck-n-A's picture

What if Clemson loses to Pitt. That might do it. Pitt is about as good as Purdue.

Bears...Buckeyes... Battlestar Galactica.

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Buck-n-A's picture

What if Clemson loses to Pitt. That might do it. Pitt is about as good as Purdue.

Bears...Buckeyes... Battlestar Galactica.

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outdoorbuckeye's picture

Keep typing it, make it happen.

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outdoorbuckeye's picture

Here, I'll help.

What if Clemson loses to Pitt. That might do it. Pitt is about as good as Purdue.

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HOLYBUCKEYE02's picture

Perfect tweak to this system.

5 vs 6 play-in game the week after championship weekend. The higher ranked team gets home field. Imagine getting a shot at Oklahoma on the road next weekend.

I don't like nice people. I like tough, honest people.

Woody Hayes

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Wargor's picture

Uh, you'd have 5 teams left after that.  

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Rascall's picture

If the Sooners win it will be very hard to get in. Bucks win would have to be something very special and Sooners not impressive. Once again getting beat by a mediocre team is our downfall.

The Irish are in, no way an Alabama loss moves the Bucks ahead of them, Clemson's more than likely in, not automatic so it comes down to Bucks winning Sooners losing for us to make it.

From now on, ending a sentence with a preposition is something up with which I shall not put.

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tbdbitlbuck's picture

And if we hadn’t just given up in that game and kept it close, we might still have a better chance. You don’t just shake off a 29 pt loss to Purdue

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gobucks5413's picture

NW is going to be a tough team to beat, let alone blow out. The way they play, its going to be low scoring and ugly. We will have to play extremely well to blow the doors off em.

As for the post above, OU somehow has to look really bad and win, like Texas goes for 2 at the end and blows it or something, and we win real big...28+ and maayyybeee. I think they made it pretty clear yesterday that we are the odd team out

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elitesmithie's picture

First of all the committee Head is full of crap from week to week. Last year at this time Alabama and us were razor thin if I remember correctly. We then went on to defeat a highly ranked Wisconsin team and then all of sudden it was "Oh well OSU has two losses". Well that was true the week before as well so...

With that said assuming OU doesn't boat race Texas the most important thing we can do is show we have an above average defense. If we can show some consistency in our defense it may cause some of the 13 members to give us the edge. I forget who said it last night but someone mentioned how there is a good chance some of the members had it OU 51 us 49 and if we can show strength on both sides of the ball that may switch.

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STLBuckeye11's picture

I think the Oklahoma score matters in more than just how close. If Texas drops 40 in a loss it looks bad again. If they drop 50 it looks really bad.

That coupled with a 3+ score win by OSU would make it very interesting

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Bucktown 5.7x28's picture

From a southern perspective, which team does Bama Nation want? Both OU and Ohio State both have recent high profile bowl victories over the Tide. Do they want to stick it to their out of conference southern brother Oklahoma, or the fighting Ohio Yankees more? Which team will score at least 42 points on Bama? That’s what it will take. 

You can judge a civilization or lack thereof, by the way mankind treats the wildlife Ghandi

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Wargor's picture

If I'm Bama I want Oklahoma.  Only gotta stop them once.

If they have to play us, their calculus is more along the lines of: gotta stop them more than once, but not sure how many times more.

I'd take the first scenario if I'm Bama. *

*Thank all that is good and holy that I am not.

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Señortaystee62's picture

Does anyone else find it hard to get too worked up over the CFP selection in light of how inconsistent and arbitrary it has been in years past? Seems like the committee values/stresses whatever gets them their preferred final four (be it the importance of conference championships, or "good" wins vs. "bad" losses, etc.) and that the criteria change week to week, year to year.

Looking forward to being in Indy and watching our Bucks handle business Saturday, and from there just let the chips fall where they may. The DOMINANT DESTRUCTION of that arrogant team up north is still SO DAMN SWEET...I see this season as a smashing success almost regardless what happens going forward. Man Saturday was sweet. It was extra awesome seeing scUM hightail it north on US 23 afterwards with all the buckeye cars giving them a honking salute hahaha

I suppose I would support a move to 6 team playoff- it seems the top 2 teams are generally agreed upon, and even in the blurry cases #3 is not so snubbed as to be left out completely. Every year it seems there is controversy surrounding 5th place, which is often between multiple 1 loss conference champions (or a 1 loss team vs a 2 loss conference champion). Meanwhile, there's a larger disparity from 6th to 7/8 (often 2 loss non-conference champions or 3 loss teams that really don't have a great argument to be included). In the end, I guess there's always going to be a first team out. The worst thing would be for the playoff to grow too big and detract from the excitement of the season where every game counts! As opposed to lame and boring NFL where 7-9 has gotten teams in the playoff in the past.

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NorthPoleBuckeye's picture

If OU wins by one point and we win big, I still think OU gets in. The only way we get in is if OU loses, we win, and Bama wins imo. 

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swflbuckeye1's picture

The only way we get in with an Oklahoma win would be if we beat northwestern by 56 pts while holding them to under 10 pts and Texas plays Oklahoma  within 7. We would need to completely dominate on offense and defense to get in with a close Oklahoma win. If bama wins by over 10 pts no matter what we do we will not get in. 

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swflbuckeye1's picture

*not bama. Meant to say oklahoma*

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Worthington Buck's picture

The committee has stated multiple times they are looking for a complete team.  I think our only path in with an Oklahoma win is if it's another Big 12 - 59-56, defense need not apply game and we put up a complete team performance, something likely north of 38-3 where our defense looks dominant.

Maryland is obviously behind Purdue, but that game is doing us no favors, if you flip that and the Rutgers game from week 2 and we could say we were coming off 3 complete team performances, I think we'd have a lot greater odds at getting in.

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RunEddieRun1983's picture

I think my sentiment is in line with everyone elses:

OU wins by more than 2 TDs it makes no difference if we win or lose.

OU loses and OSU wins by ANY amount OSU is in.

OU wins but it's a basketball score and by less than a TD but OSU dominates and hangs 40+ and wins by # or more TDs? I definitely think OSU is in.

All of this is moot if Georgia beats Alabama.

Urban Meyer left an incredible legacy. 12/4/18 Ryan Day begins his.

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bd2999's picture

Who knows. The only for sure way OSU is in is if it beats NW in convincing fashion, OU loses to Texas and Alabama beats Georgia. Anything else is possible but less certain.

Texas is in higher regard by the committee, so if they have a 52-51 shoot out and OSU beats NW by 28, will they look at OSU's victory as more impressive or just what was expected to happen?

OSU has better wins than OU does. They just do, but they also have a worse loss. It is inconsistent with how the committee see's though things. In the past quality wins are usually trump. As it is what has helped OSU before, even with a bad loss against a VT team. This year OSU is getting punished more for the loss than they are credit for the wins.

At least that is how it seems, the statements given so far are as clear as mud.

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Brandon26841's picture

I haven't read through the thread so I'm sure this has been said 1,000 times...

The ONLY way Ohio State is getting in is with both a Georgia loss and an Oklahoma loss. Even if Oklahoma wins 48-45 and Ohio State wins 42-14 I still think it's going to go to Oklahoma if you've been reading between the lines of what the committee has said. It's all about the Purdue loss.  

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swflbuckeye1's picture

I agree we aren’t in with just a 42-14 win. However, I do think we are in if Oklahoma wins a close game and we win a 2014 Wisconsin type win 59-0. It would need to be a complete blow out where we put up 600+ yds while holding them to under 200 yds. If that happens I can’t imagine us being left out, but we would need to beat them by 50. 

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Brandon26841's picture

I think at that point OSU could possibly get the nod but it's still going to be really close, especially if you've been paying attention to how the committee has worded things. They clearly seem to favor Oklahoma right now... so if both OSU and Oklahoma win...  

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Miss Walker's picture

I'm at 74%.  

I know that's just a C, but in the real world that's as good as you can hope for.  

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Beantown_Buckeye's picture

I still think it hovers in the 50/50 range if this scenario takes place. The win would have to be very dominant on both sides of the ball and OU would have to look bad in beating Texas for me to feel better than 50/50. I'd give the scenario of OSU win, OU loss, Bama win for us to get in at about a 25% chance for those three things to happen so we definitely get in.

HS
Seabass1974's picture

The more I've though about this the more I'm thinking Clemson and Oklahoma win, no matter what. With a playoff bid on the line I just don't see their conferences letting it happen ala Texas a while back getting another second added to the clock when Nebraska had already won. If one should lose, I would be supremely shocked.

The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender. - Woody Hayes

HS
buckeyewalt's picture

I think that ND should be the team looking on the outside. They're not in a conference, had several very close games and a few close one to unranked opponents, and in actuality should play Clemson for the ACC spot since half on ND games are against ACC teams.

The fix is already in. The committee dropped NW 2 spots even after winning their last game because if the score is very close in the OU and Texas game, they can always point to SOS. 

HS
Scuba_Steve's picture

I think the chink in OU's armor is now blaringly obvious to the whole world - in that their defense is a serious concern if they were to make it to the Playoff.  So I agree with many of the most recent comments.

I DO BELIEVE the Buckeyes can get in even if OU wins, but that win will have to come again with a cringe-worthy defensive performance.  Something in the realm of 52-49 opens up the eyes of the committee to think "what would Alabama do to this team?"

If you then see an Ohio State team win convincingly & in all 3 phases, I think the Committee can make a very rationale & data-based decision that Ohio State has a better, more balanced team to compete in the Playoff.  I think we all dream of the 59-0 days, but that was a confluence of crazy circumstances. 

Ohio State is in if the following scores happen:

OU 52  TX 49

OSU 42 NW 10

HS
yankeescum's picture

I don't understand how Alabama could possibly be in with a loss unless both Oklahoma and Ohio State lose. They play one possibly elite team this year, and lose it? Fuck that. I sort of get it last year. Kind of. But to lose your last game of the season, have played nobody, and get in over one or two one loss conference champions?  If I saw that shit and I was the Big 12, Pac 12, and the Big 10, I would say fuck that, walk away, and say we are going back to split champions and bowl games. I don't give a shit what sportswriters say, if Alabama loses, and either Oklahoma or Ohio State win, Alabama is gone. There are more politics involved than that. 

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Seabass1974's picture

The committee set the precedent by not inviting Wisconsin last year. 12 - 0 we beat them by one score and they were in the game until the end. They kept Wisconsin out and put in Alabama. They backed themselves into a corner for this year if Georgia should happen to win. I would be willing to bet that 3 of the conferences would burn the playoff committee to the ground.

The harder you work, the harder it is to surrender. - Woody Hayes

HS
BuckeyeRealist13's picture

The reason we have the committee though is so that we can add nuance, and can take into account things that computers can’t. Nobody things last years Wisconsin is the equivalent to this years Alabama.

“My people are a peaceful people, we cannot protect ourselves.”

”My people are not peaceful, we will protect you.”

HS
BuckeyeRealist13's picture

I didn’t read all (any) of the responses, so I’m sure this scenario has been mentioned. I think the following scenario is very realistic, and even likely to occur Saturday.

OU 45 Texas 42

Ohio State 49 Northwestern 17

Alabama 31 Georgia 14

Who gets in?

“My people are a peaceful people, we cannot protect ourselves.”

”My people are not peaceful, we will protect you.”

HS
OVBuckeye's picture

All that keeps replaying in my head, is the 2nd to last rankings last year. How they said that Alabama and Ohio State were very close. Then after we win the CCG, they come out and said that it wasn't really that close between Ohio State and Alabama, Alabama had a better body of work. I know we had 2 losses but they strung us along like if we won CCG we had a chance. Now we all know that we never really had a chance. If we had won last year by 35 or 40 I don't think it would have mattered. I don't know if you can believe a damn thing that comes out of that Committee. 

Based on the example from last year and the lies that they spew to the public, if Oklahoma wins in any fashion, they are in. The Buckeyes could win by 100 and Oklahoma win by 1 and I don't think it will change the perception. I think the only possibility for us to get in is Oklahoma loses. If Pitt somehow beats Clemson I still think they would only drop to 4 and we are still screwed.

The Committee is really down on us, even though we are 11-1. Every team, outside of Alabama, has looked shaky at times this year, yet our shaky wins catch the spotlight. Its our 52-51 win on the road vs. Maryland that gets pointed out, not Oklahomas 48-47 win at home vs. Okie St. that ended in the same fashion. Okie St. 6-6, Maryland 5-7...pretty comparable but you only hear about our narrow win.

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Worthington Buck's picture

Everything the committee did / said on Tuesday night makes me believe we've got no shot if Oklahoma / Clemson both with.  A lot of subtle (or not subtle) things with the rankings. 7-4 Iowa St ranked, 8-4 Iowa with a h2h win on Iowa St not ranked, giving Oklahoma another top 25 win.  Texas moving up with a win over Kansas where they didn't look that good while Northwestern moved down resting their starters the whole 4th Q against Illinois.  Calling Oklahoma's offense dominant while downplaying our #2 ranked offense.

It's a beauty pageant and we are the ugly duckling.  I don't know if it's the Purdue loss, the Zach Smith situation, laying an egg against Clemson in 2016, or if you want to put on the tinfoil hat, Oregon's AD leading the committee after the beatdown we put on the Ducks, but they've consistently dumped on everything we've done on the field and kept us ranked as low as they possibly could through the whole process.  I have zero faith we have an opportunity to jump anyone with anything we do, someone else has to fall.

HS
Worthington Buck's picture

I do wonder if you flipped the Rutgers and Maryland games, what perception would be.  Given the way we've been treated the whole process I doubt it, but in the early season a 1 point win against Maryland, who would have been fresh off a win against Texas, could have been completely forgotten about, while a dominant win against Rutgers could show we really are trending up while Oklahoma plays close game week after week.

Bottom line, while we've put ourselves in the position we stand in, the margin between us and Oklahoma is razor thin, it's a shame the decision on who gets to keep playing will be made by a bunch of old people in a conference room using invented numbers and a hypothetical eye test.

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RBuck's picture

Don't spook the horse.

HS