2018 Week 11 - CFB Analytics vs. AP/CFP Polls

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Earle's picture

I'm buying Syracuse vs. ND.  I get that they don't have good wins, but their only losses are in Death Valley and in OT at Pitt (who I don't think is awful, despite being unranked).  I don't think the Orange are in the same class as the Irish, but I'm hoping they punch up on Saturday.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

ND historically plays down to their competition. And I like Babers as an underdog.  He's got some junkyard dog, Dantonio in him, but with a lot more excitement.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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steve-OH's picture

I'm with you. Think this could be a heckuva matchup. Brian Kelly is due to lay an egg too.

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Meek's picture

Your faith in UC has been fickle, but I like the pick this week.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Not this guy.  Although, I wasn't a true believer after the UCLA win, I've always liked the guy.  Wish he was coaching LBs at OSU right now.

They've got a baller at QB, and his defense is stout. I think, if given the option, Fickell will take the ball first. It's going to be that kind of game.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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Cptnvideo's picture

I think you have some well thought out picks, NB. And I hope you are correct on all but the Purdue pick.

My favorite team? Whoever is playing TTUN.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Purdue? Did you mean Northwestern?

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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Cptnvideo's picture

Yes, I did. Good catch. That's what I get when I'm thinking about something else while typing.

My favorite team? Whoever is playing TTUN.

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Meek's picture

#NB91For11WStaff

- OSU ISE -+-  Premium Banter -+- OH48 80k -

See you in Indy!

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kjonesATX's picture

Nice. Good stuff, Navy. I've been missing these over the past month or so. We decided to buy a new house, sell two, move, and have a family trip all condensed into about 5 weeks or so. Not to mention we both work full-time and have two toddlers. Fun stuff.

I digress. As much as I want Syracuse to beat ND this weekend, I just don't see it. ND's defense is legit, and can carry them regardless of who is QB (see: Clemson against Syracuse). Over on sbnation they had a good read on Syracuse's biggest advantage. Worth the read. Basically it will rely on special teams and field position to win. I think I've seen that recently somewhere.. I see you Sparty.

I think the Longhorns will have enough to beat Iowa St at home at night. I also hope that OkSt can pull off the upset. Syracuse and OkSt are friends of the Buckeyes this week. They make the playoff path much simpler. 

Finally, I have the Buckeyes winning and covering (at least 21+ points). If it's less than that, we might be listed as a TD or so underdog next week. A good showing this week will make the line be a FG or less. 

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

The Syracuse pick is, admittedly, about as emotional as you can get. I want the Irish to lose so badly, because I can’t see USC doing it. Who knows, Helton may get fired after the UCLA game, and the Trojans come out playing like they have nothing to lose. Outside of that, I can’t see the Irish losing if they come out of NYC healthy. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

You were correct about UT and Syracuse. Picking six dogs wasn't a good move. Oh well. I didn't have any money on it.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
NoVAsmitty's picture

Thanks again Navy.  Always a good read.

I like the Pokes over the Neers.  No matter how much I would enjoy it otherwise were the Domers to lose, I think they beat the Orange in Yankee Stadium.  Iowa State is playing well and I'm just not buying Texas.  I like Ohio State's future head coach (and future OSU DC, and brother of Jim Heacock) over Ohio State's past OC on Saturday. 

I also think the Buckeyes CFP chances, in addition to not losing, are locked up in what happens in the Big 12.  I can see ISU, OU, and WVU all with 2 losses after next week.  I can see OU going into their conf champ game with only one loss and making us bite our nails a little longer.  I don't think we need ND to lose to get in as long as we win and no one else in the Big 12 has one loss.

But I digress, I also like the Buckeyes to cover the spread and beat Maryland.  Need to jump on the turtles early.  Don't want to give them belief they can hang with us.  

“I intend to make Georgia howl.” General William Tecumseh Sherman

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

Yeah, I think it’ll take two of three for the Buckeyes to get in, should they win out. Big XII and/or WSU need 2 losses, and/or ND loss. 

WSU is the only one that I’m not sure about. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

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NoVAsmitty's picture

I’d hold out hope that 1 loss tOSU would get in over 1 loss WSU who will have its first and only chance to beat a top 25 team next Saturday. By then, assuming tOSU wins out. It will have beaten 3 top 25 teams. 

“I intend to make Georgia howl.” General William Tecumseh Sherman

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

That's been my thought process all along.  I just don't know how badly the thumping by Purdue is going to hurt. It reminds me so much of the Va Tech loss is many ways, except the final score. If only Meyer had just worked to keep it close.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
steve-OH's picture

The VaTech loss isn't comparable in my mind.

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NavyBuckeye91's picture

The results of the games may not be, but the teams actually are very comparable.  The OSU teams who faced them, to your point, aren't comparable based on when they played in the season, coaches, and personnel.

Va Tech, although they went 7-6 that season, was in every game they played except for the blowout against Miami. They lost 5 games by a total for 20 points, and were within a FG or less in four of those games. And, they were playing without a lot of starters, including their QB, for most of the season.  The Hokies were a few plays from being 11- 1 or 10-2.

Purdue, outside of their drubbing 31-point by Minnesota, lost to MSU by 10, Mizzou by 3, EMU by 1 (starting a different QB), and by 4 to Northwestern (again with a different starting QB). They are only a few plays away from being 8-2 right now.

2014 VaTech and 2018 Purdue are much better teams than their records suggest, and their respective strengths happened to match up very well the corresponding OSU teams' weaknesses.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Das Hufeisen's picture

Enjoyed the read. Other than the Buckeyes winning out, the biggest obstacles to their CFB chances are Notre Dame and the Big 12 champ. Assuming of course that Bama wins out. We definitely don't need NW to lose today, although anything is possible with those guys. What a weird season for them.

AKA the Horseshoe, the Shoe, and the House That Harley Built

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