The Perfect Storm - Why There Should Be No CFP Auto-bids

Show All Comments

RunEddieRun1983's picture

I think the wringing fists for "auto-bids" is mostly by those that assume the teams with the better records are always going to win their conference, and that just isn't going to happen some times.

Urban Meyer left an incredible legacy. 12/4/18 Ryan Day begins his.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I forget which bowl season it was, but sometime toward the end of the BCS era, the Big East was sending some dogs to BCS bowl games through the auto-bid system.  IIRC a 3-loss UConn might've made it in.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
RunEddieRun1983's picture

Yeah I do believe that same rule got UC into a BCS game in which they got straight housed by Florida.

The auto-bid system seems like a good idea until in practice you're seeing ridiculous teams make it.

I think an auto-bid isn't a terrible idea if it's not tied directly to the conference title. For instance, each power-5 team gets a bid for their highest ranked team, then a 6th spot goes to the highest rated group of five team.

Now the theory of a higher ranked team losing it's conference title game to a lower ranked makes that seem silly to some extent, but I feel like the good teams would shuffle loose more often than not.

Urban Meyer left an incredible legacy. 12/4/18 Ryan Day begins his.

HS
pkahn187's picture

the UC being rolled by Florida was an undefeated Cincy team that was one Texas mistake away from playing Bama in the national championship.  coached by B Kelly that season but he left for Notre Dame before the bowl, plus for florida it was Tebows last game.  So that team though much like Central Florida the past few years would get smoked by most big programs but had every right in the BCS system to be in the conversation.  it wasn't until the playoff era that this "eye test" started.

Why does Ohio keep moving north? Cuz *ichigan sucks!

HS
CptBuckeye24's picture

UCONN was 2010 season. Fiesta Bowl vs Oklahoma. Oklahoma rolled, winning by 3 or 4 touchdowns.

HS
Buck 1961's picture

Sorry NavyBuckeye, I scrolled through titles too quickly, my bad.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

No worries. Happens to all of us. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
wigmon's picture

My proposal. In an 8 team playoff, I would use a "BCS" type formula combining human polls, strength of record and computer rankings to come up with a "CFP ranking" (we can debate the makeup of this formula, but just assume its a great formula).  In order for a conference champion to be an auto qualifier, they would have to finish in the top 12 of this CFP ranking.  Applying this formula, only 3 of your 8 teams would likely qualify for the playoff (potentially UCF if their record was strong enough) and would prevent weak conferences and a "lucky" champion from backing into the playoff.

HS
stuckinSouthBend's picture

Actually, so what? Eight teams with five conference champions means far less politics on the committee and strengthens the importance of the regular season. I feel the conference champs deserve the reward. An occasional "lucky" team getting in is of little consequence in my mind.

Scarlett & Gray > Blue and Gold

HS
Cptnvideo's picture

Exactly, Stuck.  In a worst case scenario, we could have some 4 loss teams make it into the playoffs as conference champs in a given year.  But realistically,  in nearly all cases, the 8 teams would be made up of teams with, at most, 2 losses.  

My favorite team? Whoever is playing TTUN.

HS
Dillon G's picture

They are conference champions. To me it does not matter. Otherwise we just have the BCS, and whom you think deserves to go. I oppose subjective ratings as the main qualifier.

#walkaway

HS
Earle's picture

No automatic bids, but I think failure to win your conference should be an automatic disqualifier.

12-0 ND, 13-0 UCF, 11-2 UGA, and ???.  You just need one of the other conferences to go according to expectation.  Let's say for the sake of argument it's a 12-1WSU.

I would totally be OK with that.  You want in?  Win your conference.

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Absolutely.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Earle's picture

In your scenario, #4 is a definite stretch, but it's a chance I'm willing to take to keep it to 4 teams and conference champs.

I have no use for teams crying about not getting in when they don't take care of their own backyard.  And that includes Ohio State.

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

HS
WorthyBuck's picture

Eliminating all teams that do not win their conference is basically an automatic bid (for those that do).  Six/half dozen sotuation.

I agree, no auto bids.  Continue taking the 4 best as chosen by the committee.  

HS
Earle's picture

How so?  You've got the same number of P5 conference champions every year.  If you end up with multiple crappy P5 champions, the committee still has the pick of the best 4 among these, plus ND and G5 Champs.  So with a strong ND, and a 13-0 UCF, you could have two P5 champs left out.

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

HS
OSUBucks22's picture

So what happens if ND has a down year and the best G5 Champ is sitting at 12-15?  Do you still want some medicore  P5 Champs?  I would rather have a team like this years Bama if they lost, instead of a G5 Champ.

“I have yet to be in a game where luck was involved. Well-prepared players make plays. I have yet to be in a game where the most prepared team didn't win.”

HS
OSUBias's picture

If any team plays 27 games they get the national championship just on endurance alone, even if they are 12–15. 

Braving the long dark of the offseason

HS
WorthyBuck's picture

UCF would be the 5th best team in the Big 10 East. 

HS
Earle's picture

Easy to say when they don’t have the opportunity. They beat Auburn last year in their bowl game. I think you can make a case for them being better than Sparty or Penn St.  A week ago a lot of people would have said they could give the Buckeyes a game. 

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

HS
Zimmy07's picture

Who beat Auburn when Auburn was good.

HS
Zimmy07's picture

Or they would have beaten the Big West Champ like a MAC team did.

HS
Cptnvideo's picture

If any team plays 27 games they get the national championship just on endurance alone, even if they are 12–15. 

I think he meant - ranked 12 -15.  Not a record of 12-15. 

My favorite team? Whoever is playing TTUN.

HS
Earle's picture

If you get an odd year with a 9-3 conference champ in as the #4 seed, I can live with that. 

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

HS
Earle's picture

9-3 is a pretty good year most places.  Four losses at Ohio State will get you canned.

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

You should know. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Gratefulbuck's picture

Two more losses for Ohio State this year and you Mod boys are going to be working your asses off. 

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

As if this season hasn’t been enough. We didn’t even get the benefit of a fall camp to get ourselves into playing shape. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Buckeye Chuck's picture

If you want to make sure the regular season, and especially non-conference games no longer matter, push hard for automatic bids.

Wow, I think you have it backwards. If you had a system with automatic bids for conference champions, there would be MORE incentive to play a tough nonconference schedule rather than less. If the Big Ten champion Buckeyes had played Scrub Tech instead of Oklahoma a season ago, they may have made it to the playoff. (Keeping in mind here that the major factor right now limiting tough nonconference games for schools like the Buckeyes is that we can't guarantee very many teams a home-and-home because we have to play a certain number of home games for financial reasons.)

The most "loud mouth, disrespect" poster on 11W.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Northwestern won exactly zero games out of conference. If they won the Big Ten CCG, in an autobid world, their non-conference schedule doesn't matter.  They could literally play three FCS schools.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Cptnvideo's picture

But what is gained by playing OOC cupcakes?  Outside of a "W".  I think teams would want to sharpen up with some decent competition before entering conference play when the emphasis is on winning the conference.

My favorite team? Whoever is playing TTUN.

HS
wigmon's picture

like alabama is essentially doing?

I think there is less of an incentive to play good ooc teams now than their would be with conference autobids and an 8 team playoff.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

OSU doesn’t get in the 2016 playoff without beating OU. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
wigmon's picture

Maybe, maybe not.  There were only 4 teams with 1 loss or less.  Washington's non-conf wins;  Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State.  Guess they didn't need even a decent non-conf win to get in over PSU.

HS
BUCKEYE3M's picture

Why should football players be, literally, the only athletes in Division I athletics that do not have a defined path to the coveted wooden trophy bestowed upon national champions?

In my opinion, this is a major reason that the atmosphere in college football is declining. As someone that lives in the backyard of a middle-of-the-pack Power 5 team, I can attest that fans already think, "what's the point, they're going to give the spot to Alabama/Oklahoma/Ohio State anyways?". 

This morning, they were discussing the lack of a good atmosphere on The First Team (Sirius/XM ESPNU Radio), and I agree.  I was thinking about it before they mentioned it today, but did you see all of those empty seats Saturday in East Lansing?  Those were not weather no shows.  That is a common occurrence in college football, and I think it's because we've - they've - created a system where only a handful of schools realistically have a legitimate chance at winning the national championship - and Ohio State is one of them.

Personally, I think that trying to create a system that prevents a statistical outlier from ever even making the show is wrong. So, every 12 years some craziness might happen?  So?  I think that every athlete that plays under NCAA sanction deserves an equal opportunity to win a national championship - no matter how unlikely it may be.  Even though the playing field will never be equal, it can still be fair.

The French Figuring Skating judges that comprise the CFP Committee are not a solution, they're just a different problem.

In my opinion.

HS
CC's picture

Why should football players be, literally, the only athletes in Division I athletics that do not have a defined path to the coveted wooden trophy bestowed upon national champions?

I'll take a stab - practicality.  They can't make the field too much bigger and there are 120ish teams in the FBS.  

HS
BUCKEYE3M's picture

Then, practically speaking, break into more divisions - FCS, FBS-P5, FBS-G6.

HS
Philliyo73's picture

There are 351 division 1 basketball teams, they can seem to figure out how to make it work. Why can they not come up with an 8 team playoff when every other College Football division has a 24 team playoff if I am not mistaken. The worry for D1 football is money and the bowl system, it ls like the D1 football is still in the 1800's as far as post season goes, and it is all because of the bowl system and money.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

It’s really a bad comparison between football and basketball. The differences between team size, equipment, facilities, physical abuse to the body, etc. make it an apples to sausages comparison. 

Additinally, if you go back and look at the winners of the NCAA basketball tournament, they are a 1-4 seed about 90-95% of the time. Everyone else is there just to raise TV revenue. If you look at those 16 teams out of a field of 350+ teams, it’s the top 4% of teams who consistently win the tourney. If you apply that to the 130 FBS teams, you get a field of 6 teams. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

That is a common occurrence in college football, and I think it's because we've - they've - created a system where only a handful of schools realistically have a legitimate chance at winning the national championship - and Ohio State is one of them.

Personally, I think it's asking fans to pay $110 a seat to watch OSU play Nebraska, interrupted by a 1001 commercials so that the game takes 4 hours, and you can't get a water for less than $5.

Personally, I think that trying to create a system that prevents a statistical outlier from ever even making the show is wrong. So, every 12 years some craziness might happen?  So?  I think that every athlete that plays under NCAA sanction deserves an equal opportunity to win a national championship - no matter how unlikely it may be.  Even though the playing field will never be equal, it can still be fair.

The problem is that there is no statistical manner, using wins and losses only, to evaluate 130 teams that only play against 1/10th of their possible opposition.  The basketball tournament works because of the differences in the sports - fewer players, smaller venues, less equipment, and less wear-and-tear on the athletes allowing them to play 2-3 games a week,

But, to equate the football selection process to basketball, there have been less than a handful of CBB teams seeded outside of the Top 4 in each region and gone on to win the tourney. Usually, it was because someone else knocked off a higher seed for them, making the road easier. Either way, basketball is dominated by the same teams year in and year out too. Yet, because there's a 64-team tournament, we're all convinced it's more egalitarian.

In reality, the winner generally comes form the Top 16 teams, whose seeds are decided by the tournament committee. There are 337 Division 1 basketball teams. If 16 out of 337 teams have a legitimate shot at winning, that's 4.75% of all the eligible basketball teams. Applying that percentage to 130 teams in CFB, you get six.

So, if there truly needs to be an expansion to make everyone feel better about the winner, expand to six teams. But please don't go to automatic bids. The resultant games may not be worth watching, and you'd be no better off than going back to the old bowl systems of conference tie-ins.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
BUCKEYE3M's picture

Football at literally every level in existence has figured this out. Even in the state of California, they figured out a way to crown multiple champions at the high school level. 

Money is the one and only reason this will never get fixed. FCS teams move their equipment and personnel to play in a championship. 

I do not think that it is at all unreasonable for a player at Ball State to know for a fact that they have a path to a championship in football, just like they do in every single NCAA sanctioned sport in their athletic department, no matter how unlikely their chances. 

And, just because Division I basketball and football are apples and oranges doesn't mean they're not both fruit. 

HS
NOLABuckeye's picture

Tulane had a very good team in '98 when they went undefeated and finished 7th.  They wouldn't have been an easy out for anybody ranked above them and probably would've even beaten some of them.  I think UCF likewise would not be an easy out for anybody ranked above them.

Nothing cleanses the soul like a no call pass interference.

HS
BUCKEYE3M's picture

And, I think they should have had the chance. Just like a Tulane basketball player, or golfer, or tennis player, or baseball player... 

HS
WorthyBuck's picture

I think Tulane and UCF should not even be considered because it is ine thing to get up for a 1-game situation whereas he other have to earn it against top level competition weekly throughout the season hust to get a shot.  UCF goes 8-4 in a major confernce last year and this year.  They get all the credit for beating the 4th beat SEC team in a game they treated as their superbowl and that Auburn had no such motivation.  

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Because beating Oregon State, Rutgers, Tulane, TCU, and Nebraska was "weekly, top level competition"?  This is the same argument the SEC uses to not play 9 conf games and to play an FCS opponent every year. It just doesn't wash.

The non-Power Five teams that have been allowed into the BCS and NY6 games have done very well for the most part. To discredit them by saying Auburn had no interest in the game, is giving credence to the Nick Saban excuses for losing because "we weren't playing for anything meaningful". If that's the case, forfeit.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Zimmy07's picture

Tulane, Marshall, Boise St, Hawaii.  Let them play.

ok, Hawaii effed it up for everyone, but man did I want them to win.

HS
Sunny Buck's picture

Hey Navy, just got here but I like your idea of a six game playoff. People say 4 teams are not enough but 8 teams are too many. Six teams might be the "sweet spot" we are looking for.

I really hate to disagree with a fellow sailor but your comment " I trust the sometimes suspect, often inconsistent committee to put the 4 best teams in the playoff" puts us at adds. I don't trust the committee that much with so much at stake. I hate their damn, dreaded "eye test". To me that means we like this team better than that team. This just reminds me of the screwed up 1970's when the Associated Press (AP) and the United Press International (UPI) awarded different national champions. i believe that's why the "mythical" national championship phrase was used so often.

It's also one thing to not win your conference but to not even win your division and get in is ridiculous to me. It reeks of favoritism and commercialism. Everyone wants to see Bama, more eyeballs, more money,etc.

Back to your 6 game idea. If the current top four win out they will be in. The Rival will have one loss. Would WASU get in if they won out? I don't think so. Who wouldn't like to see what Mike Leach would come up with in a playoff situation. THAT would be entertaining, especially if they won the whole thing.

This is a fun topic to kick around. Thanks for posting this. GO BUCKEYES, GO NAVY

I'm not trying to win a popularity contest. I'm trying to win football games-- Woody Hayes

HS
Gratefulbuck's picture

Can’t agree with you more, NB. Especially your closing statement. 

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

It ain't perfect, but it's a far cry better than #1 playing #9 and #2 playing #6 in some conference tie-in bowl games that are meaningless.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
TeddyKGB's picture

TL;DR

There should be an 8-team playoff.  The 5 major conference champions get an auto-bid.  Then the two highest ranked power 5 teams not conference champs.  Lastly the highest ranked non-power 5 team.

HS
CC's picture

Good - that insures UCF still doesn't get in!

HS
Triv's picture

Lastly the highest ranked non-power 5 team.

Like the BCS, there needs to be a stipulation that this team must be ranked in the top 10 or top 15. Nobody wants to see a 10-2 #23 G5 team in the playoffs

Sorry Urban, Woody is still my favorite

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Which is why you should've read the whole post, Teddy.  Here are the possible matchups this season with your plan.

In an eight-team playoff, with automatic bids to CCs, we would likely see the following match-ups:
9-4 Arizona State vs. 12-0 Notre Dame
9-4 Northwestern vs. 11-2 Georgia
10-3 Iowa State vs. 12-1 Bama
9-4 Pitt vs. 13-0 Central Florida

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
TeddyKGB's picture

I don't give a shit about the matchups.  It is still better than a group of "experts" picking the teams for an invitational tournament.  In the NFL and MLB, sometimes teams with worse records make the post-season. Shit happens, bum juice. 

Every team at the start of the season should know what it takes to make the playoff and it should be decided by play on the field.

HS
cledaybuck's picture

If someone suggested Tampa should have made the MLB playoffs this year over Cleveland, most people would think that is crazy. But Tampa did have virtually the same record playing tougher competition in a tougher division. Yet in college football, we have no problem with this.

HS
Gratefulbuck's picture

Keeping it not like the NFL is kind of the point. 

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Based on the number of teams and games played, and how the NFL structures their schedules, records tend to matter less. You have an excellent idea of which teams are the best in each division. That's not true in college football. In fact, it's statistically impossible with 130 teams and only 12 games.

Have fun watching shitty, undeserving teams play for a national championship.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
TeddyKGB's picture

In the NFL teams frequently get into the playoffs with worse records than teams eliminated.  Shit happens. You hope to get the post-season and get the hot hand.

I'd happily watch the teams that made the playoffs based on winning their conference. They'd be completely deserving to be there.

It would be a better system than an invitational that is set up to allow talking heads to blather on for months.

HS
WorthyBuck's picture

Inviting a non-power 5 would be like inviting the top AAA tam to the MLB playoffs beciase that team did well and had a good record against AAA teams.

Not only should UCF not make the playoff this year (or last), those teams should not even be eligible.  UCF would be either the 4th or 5th beat team in the Big 10 East.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

If that's truly the case, how many major league teams play AAA teams during their season and apply those wins to the record that determines the playoff standing? Extending your analogy to the FCS, would they be AA teams? 

If you believe the Power Five teams are truly a head above everyone else, how do you explain Rutgers, Oregon State, Kansas, Vandy, Illinois and Arkansas? They would lose over half their games playing in the Mountain West or the American Conference.

I would take UCF as the 3rd best team in the Big Ten East and 3rd best in the Big Ten overall.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Cptnvideo's picture

In an eight-team playoff, with automatic bids to CCs, we would likely see the following match-ups:
9-4 Arizona State vs. 12-0 Notre Dame
9-4 Northwestern vs. 11-2 Georgia
10-3 Iowa State vs. 12-1 Bama
9-4 Pitt vs. 13-0 Central Florida

NavyBuckeye, I appreciate all the work, effort and research you put into this site.  And I agree with 99.9% of your posts.  But the scenario you post for potential playoff teams in an 8 team playoff assume a WHOLE bunch of upsets.  Realistically that would not happen.  One 3 or 4 loss team might get in per year, but not 4.  

Since an 8 team playoff would have 2 teams playing 3 post season games, there might be a better alternative, but would still have 2 teams playing 3 post season games. 

The alternative:  Go back to the old bowl system that matched up conference champs and highly ranked teams.  AFTER the bowl games, a committee would select the 4 best teams for a playoff.  Same number of games for 4 teams as a 6 or 8 team playoff would have.  

My favorite team? Whoever is playing TTUN.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I intentionally picked the worst case scenario, because years like 2007 happen. 

I’d be OK with the system you propose so long as it was the 8 beat teams, regardless of conference. My point is the whole conference championship games deciding who goes is a bad model. Look at how often we see basketball teams sneak into the NCAA tourney because they win their conference tournament, yet have no business going dancing. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Cptnvideo's picture

I’d be OK with the system you propose so long as it was the 8 beat teams, regardless of conference. My point is the whole conference championship games deciding who goes is a bad model.

My alternative suggestion didn't have anything to do with CCGs determining playoff slots.  I was suggesting we go back to the way Bowl games were played before BCS (PAC12 vs Big 10 in the Rose Bowl, etc).  Then AFTER the bowl games, choose the 4 best teams.  The committee should have a pretty clear idea who the best 4 at that point.  That would add one extra game for 2 teams vs the current format. 

My favorite team? Whoever is playing TTUN.

HS
cledaybuck's picture

I would make it the highest ranked non power five conference champ, but other than that, I agree.

HS
allinosu's picture

Find a way that it worth the loss of money the you will have it.

HS
TeddyKGB's picture

The system was never about getting the best teams.  That is a marketing slogan.

You need a system where before a single snap is played, every teams knows the requirements to get into the Playoff.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

They do know.  Win all your games.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
TeddyKGB's picture

Tell that to UCF.

Since most years there are 1-2 undefeated teams at most, that trite logic makes no sense.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Sadly, the Power Five conferences made the rules. So teams like UCF will never get a shot, unless there are multiple P5 Conference Champions have two or more losses.

BTW, your proposed system only allows one, non-Power Five team in. What if there are two who finish the season undefeated, or ranked higher than 2-3 Power Five champions?

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
TeddyKGB's picture

You want to make it so more than one non-P5 team can get in based on rankings at the end of the season? I'm all for it!

HS
BUCKEYE3M's picture

Win all your games. 

That is not universally true. That is only true for the majority of the teams, and therein lies the problem.

Group of 5? Absolutely no reasonable or realistic chance in hell of EVER winning a championship.

Schools outside of the "top 16" you alluded to above, must absolutely go undefeated to have ANY chance.

But, those top 16? They don't have to win all their games. 

That. Is. The. Problem. 

HS
QuadCitiesBuckeye's picture

But I remember 2007 very well. The entire season, but especially the month of November, was one of the most tumultuous in college football history

I wish I could forget about the Illinois game

Shandy is not beer

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

That season has several forgettable moments, not the least of which was the BCS Championship Game.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Earle's picture

What BCS Championship Game?

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I'm not sure what we're talking about.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
MiamiBuckeye's picture

As stated previously in this comment thread, autobids aren't necessarily terrible ideas, but only if they're applied intelligently and not arbitrarily. The nature of conference tie-breakers means it's possible for a 5 loss team (say an SEC West team loses all its OOC games plus one conference game but beats Bama and thus gets in on head-to-head tiebreaker and beats its  SEC East opponent for the title) to win its conference, but if we were to make the bids based on rankings/overall records rather than championships, it might make more sense. 

One proposal I've seen if for an 8 team playoff where the best teams from each Power 5 conference, the best ranked G5 team, and 2 more "at large" (i.e. a deserving Notre Dame and the best runnerup from one of the P5, which this year would probably be Georgia or the loser of the OSU-Michigan game) teams get in. With such a system, the playoff would probably be: Bama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ohio State/Michigan, UCF, Washington State, and either Georgia or Ohio State/Michigan. 

"porque las estirpes condenadas a cien años de soledad no tenían una segunda oportunidad sobre la tierra."

HS
mb5599's picture

Could not disagree more.  a 6 team playoff with automatic bids for the Power 5 conference champs and a 1 at large bid is the fairest way to produce a champion.  win your conference an your in.  why would i want a group of people to pick the playoff teams?  does anyone think that the ACC is as strong as the current playoff committee is making them out to be?  how about the sec love fest? granted, bama is elite year in and year out, but the rest of the conference is riding their coattails for the most part.  if you cant win your own conference, that's your own fault.  settle it on the field.  stop the "eyeball test" .

Big B

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

a 6 team playoff with automatic bids for the Power 5 conference champs and a 1 at large bid is the fairest way to produce a champion.

Not if you're Utah State, UCF or UC.

does anyone think that the ACC is as strong as the current playoff committee is making them out to be?  how about the sec love fest? granted, bama is elite year in and year out, but the rest of the conference is riding their coattails for the most part.  if you cant win your own conference, that's your own fault.  settle it on the field.  stop the "eyeball test" .

And if all those conference champs have 3 losses, while there are better, more deserving teams available? You say settle it on the field, but with autobids, I could have a better record and beat you head to head in the regular season, but because you won the CCG against another team, so you should go to the playoff?  No thanks.  That's not exactly settling it on the field.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
mb5599's picture

Not if you're Utah State, UCF or UC.

Alright. I'm good with adding the Power 5 champ as an automatic qualifier.  at least they were a conference champ.   

And if all those conference champs have 3 losses, while there are better, more deserving teams available? You say settle it on the field, but with autobids, I could have a better record and beat you head to head in the regular season, but because you won the CCG against another team, so you should go to the playoff?  No thanks.  That's not exactly settling it on the field.

what do you mean by more deserving?  who decides that? what are the criteria?  why would a team be more deserving than a team that won their conference championship?  if you have a better record and beat me head to head in the regular season, but were not good enough to reach the championship game whose fault is that?  i could care less if you have 3 losses (non-conference or conference), did you win the conference championship?  if so, you beat a team(s) that I couldnt beat.  win your conference and you will have no issue with "subjective" selections. 

Big B

HS
bd2999's picture

Those teams are going to get snubbed. Just like Boise did. There is something to being from a very weak conference. Not sure if it is fair in the grand scheme of things but it was very hard to judge how good some of these teams were during the course of the year when the ywere beating all the teams on their schedule by three or four TDs. Were they that good or was it the competition or both?

HS
ZekeWeberDobbins's picture

I love the 4 team playoff system but I'd take a 6 team or 2 team over 8 team any day. 8 team is just tacky, 4 gamesis WAY too many post season gams and it interferes with the recruiting cycle.

HS
IBLEEDSCARLETANDGRAY's picture

One of the things that did in the BCS was conference champs getting auto bids and we see an 8-4 Big East Champ UConn playing in the freaking Fiesta Bowl in 2010. Winning the conference should be grounds for getting you into the playoffs but it shouldnt be the ONLY reason. Say what you will about the result but I was glad we actually got into the 2016 playoffs. We deserved it and we werent conference champs.

"You're the patron saint of the totally effed" - Hot Tub Time Machine

HS
Earle's picture

We deserved it

Clemson begs to differ.

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

HS
IBLEEDSCARLETANDGRAY's picture

I was speaking more for the body of work during the season. Wins over Wisky, TTUN, Oklahoma. Then the Tim Beck effect took over of course.

"You're the patron saint of the totally effed" - Hot Tub Time Machine

HS
Earle's picture

Fair enough, but I'm still going to use that example to support my argument against non-champs getting in.

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

HS
MiamiBuckeye's picture

How about this for a better example: Bama last year. Non-champion, won it all. 

"porque las estirpes condenadas a cien años de soledad no tenían una segunda oportunidad sobre la tierra."

HS
Earle's picture

Every rule needs an exception. ; )

Axe leukemia!
#Poppystrong

HS
MiamiBuckeye's picture

I actually think last year's Bama getting in and winning is an argument for an expanded playoff field. In no way did they deserve to be in the top 4 based on their resume, but they ended up being the best team in the nation. In a 6 or 8 team playoff, there's always a chance that the 5 or 6 seed team surprises you. 

"porque las estirpes condenadas a cien años de soledad no tenían una segunda oportunidad sobre la tierra."

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

In a 6 or 8 team playoff, there's always a chance that the 5 or 6 seed team surprises you. 

There’s a chance, but I wouldn’t say there’s always a chance. 2014 Baylor and TCU would’ve gotten housed in the playoff. They had zero defense. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
kjonesATX's picture

TCU had a top 15 defense that year, actually. Right there with the Buckeyes. Also a top 15 offense. There were probably 5 deserving teams in 2014, but an argument could have been made that FSU didn't deserve it. But you can't leave out an undefeated defending champ under any circumstances. 

HS
Hovenaut's picture

Remember the dismemberment of November 2007.

Seems like nobody wanted in. I know some WVU fans, they were absolutely destroyed over that loss to Pitt.

I'm not around that much, running exhausted and lost...

HS
IBLEEDSCARLETANDGRAY's picture

We would've destroyed WVU in the BCS title game. No doubt in my mind.

"You're the patron saint of the totally effed" - Hot Tub Time Machine

HS
Hovenaut's picture

Oh man...in another universe.

I can smell the couches burning now.

I'm not around that much, running exhausted and lost...

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Bring Back the Backyard Brawl!

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
Hovenaut's picture

Conference realignment has totally killed off some great rivalries...Backyard Brawl definitely one of them.
 

I'm not around that much, running exhausted and lost...

HS
ZekeWeberDobbins's picture

8 team playoff sounds stupid to me. half of the CFP games have been blowouts (Oregon  - FSU, OSU - oregon, Bama -MSU, Clemson - OU, Clemson- OSU, Bama -Washington, Alabama - Clemson). Don't need to see more blowouts.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

This is probably the best argument against expansion.  If you look at the top 8 teams every year, at least three have 2-3 losses. They aren't going to be good games, and it's just pandering to TV advertising to put them on TV.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
ZekeWeberDobbins's picture

Not just that. It ruins the feeling of upsets. 4 team playoffs have already made upsets slightly less damning and wild. Auburn beating Bama last year keeps bama out most years of 4 team playoffs if we just handle our business against iowa or just simply not get blown out.

HS
TeddyKGB's picture

That is a different issue.  If you really wanted to "fix" college football IMO:

Every power 5 conference has teams play 8 (or 9) conference games so the number of conference games is uniform.

Then all but one of the remaining games have to be against power 5 opponents.  So ex., if in 2018, Ohio State finishes #2 in the Big Ten, then in 2019 they would play 2 out-of-conference games against the 2018 #2 finisher in the Pac-10 or ACC or Big 12 or SEC.  Conferences rotate yearly, and home and away games rotate yearly. 

The first game of the season, teams can schedule a non-P5 opponent (but not an FCS school).

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

At that point, they should just separate the conferences into two separate division of football, as 3M pointed out.

The OP wasn't an attempt to "fix" college football, because the scope of that is way too large. And regardless of the fix you put in place, not everyone will agree that it's a fix.

I was just merely pointing out that automatic bids for CCs is not necessarily a good thing for the sport based on the potential for a CFP filled with weak teams, who aren't necessarily the "best" or even the "most deserving", regardless of the number of teams you put in a playoff.

Lets face it, does the "best" team win the NCAA basketball tournament every year? Hardly. Because they don't have pool play, so you don't face everyone in the tourney. You only face the opponents along you r bracket. If you truly want to determine a "champion" the tournament teams should have to play every other team at least once to prove their dominance. But that's not realistic, is it?

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
elitesmithie's picture

A good chunk of the 4 team playoffs end in blowouts....

HS
wigmon's picture

I think you've ignored a few proposals.  In an 8 team playoff, I would use a "BCS" type formula combining human polls, strength of record and computer rankings to come up with a "CFP ranking" (we can debate the makeup of this formula, but just assume its a great formula).  In order for a conference champion to be an auto qualifier, they would have to finish in the top 12 of this CFP ranking.  Applying this formula, only 3 of your 8 teams would likely qualify for the playoff (potentially UCF if their record was strong enough). 

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I think you've ignored a few proposals.

Yes, I did. Thought that was pretty clear in the title. I was just pointing out why Conference Champion auto-bids are a bad idea. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
wigmon's picture

I found the comments regarding conference champions to be a non sequitur.  You surmise that we shouldn't allow a 9-4 conference champion because they aren't worthy, but argue that the worthy team is the one that just lost to the unworthy team. 

Now, I have stated that I prefer the bids to have power 5 conference affiliation with the condition that they meet a minimum standard (whether that standard be an F+ ranking or some other forumla can be debated later).  I think that all rankings systems are flawed and carry some innate bias (whether human or artificial), so I don't like leaving it all up to rankings.  The last year we won the title, TCU (the team many thought got snubbed) ended up 6th, sandwiched in the F+ ratings between 4 loss Mississippi and 5 loss Auburn.  Does anyone really think either of those teams deserved to be in?  

We have defined that there are 5 conferences across the US as power conferences and they don't often play a lot of inter sectional games in a season to make a valid case for how they all compare to each other (not saying we can't reasonably draw some conclusions, but not absolutes).  If you have an 8 team playoff that includes autobids form each power conference, that still allows for you to include at least the 3 best teams according to the rankings and likely the 6 or 7 best teams will be included annually.  So what if a cinderella makes it every so often or even 1 every year.  I see that as a much smaller problem than the current 4 team format.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I agree there needs to be a more thorough assessment of quality for the teams involved. But I do not buy into the whole Power Five garbage. Several of the teams in the Power Five wouldn’t win half their games playing in the Mountain West or American Conference. Many of them were in non-Power Five Conference just a decade ago (TCU, Utah, Louisville, etc.). There are teams in the American conference that had autobids under the BCS system because they were Big East at that time. 

The fact that 1-loss Group of Five teams like Utah State, UC, etc are ignored in all of this, even if their F/+ and record wouldn jusitfy them being in, is just one problem with giving Power Five teams autobids. 

My problem in this discussion is the idea that Conference Champions should get automatic bids. If Northwestern at 8-4 beats UM at 11-1, are the really better? UM already beat Norfhwestern in the regular season. Do they need a tiebreaker game to prove it? In the Big 12 there’s a chance that OU and WVU play back-to-back games. What if they split them? Who’s really better?

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
wojodta's picture

The only way the autobid system would work is if we did away with the divisions and the conference championships simply included the top 2 teams (based on CFP ranking) in the championship game.

HS
TeddyKGB's picture

100% not true. See: the NFL, MLB.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

You can’t compare this to the NFL, MLB or any other sport that has less than 40 teams competing. There are almost as many teams in the Big Ten and SEC as the entire NFL. 

Pro teams face division opponents multiple times. You have a much better idea of which team is the best in your Division, Conference, League. Because college football teams only play each other once, we rely far too heavily on the head to head comparison. It leaves out the best teams on a regular basis. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
wojodta's picture

Not sure I get it. Pro sports suck and so that's not a great example for how a good postseason should be run. I think it's pretty obvious a 4 or 5 loss division winner shouldn't be playing for a conference title. So it's obvious there's a flaw with the division champs thing. Same deal with divisions in NFL or MLB. Just cause you win your shitty division, it doesn't mean you should be in the playoffs IMO. It should just be based on overall ranking/record.

HS
osu992's picture

Bravo, Navy!

This season is exactly the reason the current set up is optimal.

People forget introducing another round to the playoffs means removing a regular season game or doing away with conference championship games, moving to the model the Big 12 used to have. One does away with 60 games, the other does away with 4, as a result of adding a playoff week played by 8 teams.

And you'd make that sacrifice in the name of what...the 10% chance chance WSU makes it from their current position to the second round of the playoff?

Last year, there might have been five teams qualified to win the championship. This was the argument to go to 8 teams: add three non-contenders so no one has to pick between Ohio State and Alabama, so neither needs to feel bad about regular season losses, because the regular season doesn't need to matter.

This year, with an obvious #1, maybe two teams can compete with them, one of which they are guaranteed to face in a championship game anyway. So let Alabama face one, then the other. 2018: the perfect argument for a two team playoff.

2017 and 2018: confirmation that 4 is the right number, as managed by educated professionals with advanced data and situational analysis at their disposal.

New Day for OSU. Same noon for TTUN.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I wish they would admit that advanced stats should inform the decision, not make it, inform it. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
ZekeWeberDobbins's picture

I'd rather a team 2 than 8 team anyways. Most BCS games were amazing. a lot of CFP games have been washes. If you get left out claim a natty depending on your bowl game performance I guess lmao.

8 team playoffs completely ruins the regular season for me. Bama especially then teams like OSU, OU, Clemson, UGA  and sometimes an LSU would be in every year. Literally every year. Upsets are completely meaningless and so is the regular season. just dont lose more than 2 games and you're good if you're a blue blood. 

 

HS
allinosu's picture

Everyone forgets that more than 4 teams were proposed and it wasn't worth the bids for them to go with. On top of that the bid dropped for automatic bids. They selected the 'biggest money for the bang'.

HS
scarletgray's picture

I prefer a battle of conference champions. No one really believes the best teams are picked to participate in the tourny we have now.  At least when you have a battle of conference champions you can get exactly what you are advertising, a battle of conference champions not a championship of unequally deserving entrants.  

JDK

HS
LawClub's picture

I think the perception of bias and favoritism are the biggest problem, no matter the number of participants. That's the moving force behind auto bids.

NavyB knows best, but I think an objective (or as close as we have) system like F+ would be best. I've wondered what the discrepancies have been, if any, between the 4 highest F+ teams and the playoff teams these last 4 years.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I've commented on this in the past when the CFP rankings come out.  It's been remarkably close to the F/+ ratings every season, at least regarding who the Top 4 are but not necessarily the seeds.  

2015 - OSU should've been in.  MSU had no business in that CFP based on F/+.

2016 - UM probably should've been in along with OSU, Bama and Clemson.

2017 - Bama, UGA, OSU and Clemson based on F/+.

All things being equal (records, CCs, head to head, etc.), the Committee has shown a tendency to use analytics to differentiate between two, otherwise equal, teams.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
BuckminsterFullback's picture

20-year old college kids are playing a game involving an prolate spheroid.

I'm pretty sure the NCAA insists they use an amateurlate spheroid.

Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth.

HS
Zimmy07's picture

This is a spectacular comment considering your user name.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Except his avatar causes me some concern about his bonafides.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
BuckminsterFullback's picture

Except his avatar causes me some concern about his bonafides.

Allow me to assure you that I am 100% free of bonafides, which is probably why I am not sure how you deduced that from my fullerene avatar.

Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Your fullerene looks too much like a soccer ball. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
BuckminsterFullback's picture

My avatar fullerene comes from the Wikipedia article for fullerene. Does it look distressingly like a commie football? Yes, indeed it does.  Is it a good representation of an actual fullerene? I have no idea. I'm not a materials scientist, I'm just a guy who happened to read an article about Buckminster Fuller about a half-hour before I created my 11W account; the name came to mind, and I liked it.

Three things cannot be long hidden: the sun, the moon, and the truth.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

My old man was a Buckminster Fuller fan. We didn’t get a swingset for the back yard. Dad bought us a geodesic climbing dome. 

I can dig it. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
BuckeyeRealist13's picture

I don’t know how I feel about auto bids. Northwestern, Pitt, and Utah certainly don’t deserve to be in the playoffs. At the same time though, conference championship games would be huge once again.

In my always humble opinion, the playoffs should be 8 and absolutely no more. 

Rank the teams as you do now, take the top 7, +1 highest ranked group of 5 provided there is a G5 team ranked. If not, just take the top 8. First round is all played at the higher seeds home stadium, semi’s and beyond played as is now.

HS
allinosu's picture

That would set things up nicely for the SEC every year with at least 3 teams in and some years more. 8 team was also proposed along with 16 and it wasn't worth the money by far as advertisers lowered their bids per round considerably which affect the overall bid (Example the Rose bowl dropped from 90mil to as low as 45mil with additional rounds). Automatic bids had the same effect only directly to every scenario. 

HS
BuckeyeRealist13's picture

Allin - Here is the by conference breakdown of teams in the final 8 each year

2014
B1G: 2
Big 12: 2
SEC: 2
Pac 12: 1
ACC: 1

2015
B1G: 3
Big 12: 1
Independent: 1
Pac 12: 1
ACC: 1
SEC: 1

2016
B1G: 4
Pac 12: 1
ACC: 1
Big 12: 1
SEC: 1

2017
SEC: 3
BIG: 2
Big 12: 1
ACC: 1
Pac 12: 1

I think if anything, we should be worried about B1G favoritism. 

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Funny you should bring that up. I’ve made the identical argument any time someone says the Committee is biased toward the SEC. Can’t tell you how many DVs I’ve gotten for it. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Maybe try to score at the wedding, and next time you’ll be the bride. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
BUCKEYE3M's picture

Well, we did catch the bouquet.

Once.

HS
BuckeyeRealist13's picture

Can you imagine if the SEC would of gotten 4 teams in like the B1G would of gotten in 2016? 

HS
Trabbic's picture

The problem I have with your argument, is that you use the WORST possible scenario to defend why something shouldn't happen.

Statistically it is possible for your scenario, but it is so unlikely as to be virtually impossible.  Even 2007 wasn't that bad.  It is likely that you have 1, possibly 2 (in a weird year), "un-deserving" conference champions out of 8 teams. 

Let's look at past years to evaluate an 8 team playoff with power 5 auto-bid:

Note: Rather than reinvent the wheel, I did a quick google search and found a reddit post with this info https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/99qls6/what_if_we_had_an_8team_playoff_from_20052017/.  In this table, they also include an auto-bid for a Group of 5 team, I don't think that should be the case, I believe that the group of 5 team should earn their way with an appropriate ranking.

There are some GREAT match-ups there, and 2007 even looks like fun.  2012 is the only weird year, with an unranked Wisconsin getting in.  And don't forget, they played a good Stanford team close, so there wasn't any bad game there...

I think looking at historical data like this is a better representation of what would likely happen if we moved to 8 teams.

I highly recommend looking at the post linked above, there is some explanation of where he gets the rankings and notes to consider.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

Yes, I did present the worst possible scenario, this the title. 

And I live your historical look. But what makes those match-ups good. If you apply advanced analytics to this matchups, or were able to apply Vegas lines to them, many of the 1-v-8 and 2-v-7 games would have 14-20 point lines. They would be blowouts, with an extremely rare possibility of the dog winning. In my opinion, that would do more to hurt the quality of the CFP than it would to make it “fair”.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
kjonesATX's picture

If they expanded to 6 teams, and then made a caveat that if you are an undefeated or 1-loss Power 5 champ, you are automatically in, I think you could do that and it would be absolutely fine with almost no arguments. It would also make it easy for teams to "control their destiny" a little bit more, while still placing extreme importance on the regular season and the conference championship. Top 2 get byes and 3/4 host quarterfinals 2 weeks after conference championship games. 

With a 6-team playoff, you would likely have 2 - 4 of the spots secured through this 'qualifier,' but it would at least guarantee that if you have a situation where every major conference would be represented in the unusual scenario of all having undefeated or one-loss champs (think Bama/Georgia, Clemson, OU/WV, OSU/Mich, WSU this year). And, an undefeated or one-loss ND would still have room to make the playoff. 

In the event of a mass chaos year, you would really have to rely on the committee to "pick" the 6 best teams. 

HS
allinosu's picture

I see nothing wrong with the logic but the bid was high for NO automatic bids. Both sides of the negotiations were adamant that even with a 16 team playoff there will be NO automatic bids.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

and then made a caveat that if you are an undefeated or 1-loss Power 5 champ, you are automatically in,

I realize we only have four years of selection data, but an undefeated or 1-loss, undisputed Power Five conference champ has never been left out of the CFP.  

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
kjonesATX's picture

With the caveat that under the current big 12 set up, TCU would have beaten Baylor in a hypothetical Big 12 title game and been undisputed. And someone would have been left out.. even if you want to argue Baylor would have won that rematch, you still would have had one left out. 

We might have it this year if WV or OU wins out, and Ohio State or Michigan wins out.. provided ND wins out. Someone will be on the outside looking in with just one loss and will be an undisputed Power 5 champ. That's without mentioning WSU. We could have 2 of those teams left out (or three, possibly if Bama were to lose to Georgia and still get in). 

If you get a playoff with Georgia, Bama, Clemson, and ND and 3 of those teams are sitting (meaning 3 power 5 conferences aren't represented), then something will be changed going forward. That would be the "Bama v LSU" rematch scenario that will force some change. 

HS
BUCKEYE3M's picture

(meaning 3 power 5 conferences aren't represented), then something will be changed going forward

As long as Sankey has the power he has, and remains as happy as he is, this is effectively the only way to force change. 

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

With the caveat that under the current big 12 set up, TCU would have beaten Baylor in a hypothetical Big 12 title game and been undisputed.

Like I said, only four years of data. The fact that the Big 12 CCG is always a rematch does them more harm that good, IMO. Beating USC twice did nothing for Stanford. If OU beats WVU twice, WVU drops to a 3-loss team, and vice versa. If Auburn has beaten UGA last year in the CCG, it wouldn’t have helped Auburn, it would’ve hurt UGA, and OSU and Bama are in the CFP, or maybe it’s Auburn and OSU. 

A two loss Georgia won’t get in ahead of a 1-loss P5 CC. I also don’t think a 1-loss Bama gets in ahead of a 1-loss, P5 CC. You can’t justify it with their wins, except maybe against WSU. 

But if the Buckeyes or Michigan fall to Northwestern in the CCG, the Big Ten deserves to be left out. If WSU falls to Utah or ASU in the PAC 12 CCG, same thing. 

The real test will be Clemson, if they go to 12-1 with a loss to say Pitt in the CCG. There’s a Big Ten team with a convincing win over Pitt. 

So much football to play in the next three weeks. I love this time of year. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
kjonesATX's picture

I wish I could say I don't think Bama gets in with a loss. Bama losing to Georgia is a nightmare, not just for the Big Ten, but also potentially the Pac 12 and Big 12. In 2016, the committee set the precedent that you didn't have to win a conference to be in. Last year, the committee expanded the precedent to include the 'eye test' with regards to the "4 best teams," and not just who you have beaten.

I know both those years it involved the non-champs being compared to 2-loss champs, but I still think it was important precedent to set.. especially last year. Bama had zero good wins, but the committee thought they were one of the 4 best. I think most would say that even with a loss to Georgia in the championship game, they are one of the 4 best this year regardless of who they have played. 

Now if ND can go out a lose a game, or if OU and WV can trade losses with each other, or if Bama can just lose to Auburn in the Iron Bowl, then the Big Ten has absolutely nothing to worry about. 

HS
Philliyo73's picture

The only real way to fix the issue, is to have 4 16 team conferences. The 8 team playoff would be the 8 winners of the divisions, play as the conf championship games, and it gives you the final 4. Then you play it out. Pretty simple, but it blows up the bowl system for the most part, That is why this has not happened yet. When they can funnel the money to the 64 teams, like they want to, because the big schools dont like sharing the money with schools that bring nothing to the table as far as fanbases/tv viewership, then we will see a change. Otherwise, they are just changing the lipstick on the pig, but in the end, it is still a pig.

HS
osu992's picture

Getting rid of 64 teams is probably more difficult than getting rid of bowl games.

New Day for OSU. Same noon for TTUN.

HS
Philliyo73's picture

They would just form another division with the teams that are left out, it has happened before. Then they can play for their own championship.

HS
osu992's picture

Yeah, but...Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, and Rutgers like the money that certainly wouldn't my continue at a lower level.

New Day for OSU. Same noon for TTUN.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

That really doesn’t fix anything. 

Mans if you break into two divisions there go all your OCC cupcake games. You will never see another undefeated team in CFB if the Power Five only play each other. And you will see a lot of programs like Rutgers, Oregon State, etc, never win another game. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
osu992's picture

People (who say that all other divisions of football have figured out how to have a 16+ team playoff, so so too can FBS) forget that no one cares about those other levels of football.

New Day for OSU. Same noon for TTUN.

HS
BuckeyeRealist13's picture

When people bring that up, my thinking is, the FBS is different, and has a different system and that's ok. The NFL has their system, FCS and lower divisions have their systems, and the FBS has their own system. They don't all have to be the same. 

HS
Worthington Buck's picture

Eliminate divisions.  Designate a couple "rivalry games" (OSU - Mich / OSU - Penn St / Mich - Mich St / Indiana - Purdue / etc) and otherwise rotate the schedule.  Two best teams play in the conference championship game like the Big 12 does.

If you are going to 8, I'd prefer some sort of automatic qualification.  Look at last year, Auburn finished 7th in the final standings, above USC (better record + conference champ) and UCF (undefeated group of 5, ended up beating Auburn).  As much as I hate the idea of 2 out of 4 teams being SEC, I loathe the idea you'd have 3 out of 8 from the SEC.

HS
BuckeyeRealist13's picture

Based off of data from the playoff committees previous final rankings, the B1G would be getting 2-4 teams in per year as well. 

HS
Dillon G's picture

Interesting that people have such double standards. Villanova would not have even been in the tournament to beat Georgetown if a bunch of you were in charge.

#walkaway

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

How is it a double standard?

Sure, and we never would’ve gotten to see Sister Jean and Loyola Chicago in the Final Four. How’d that turn out? They got destroyed by Michigan in the semifinals. Of course people forget the highest seed they actually beat was #3 Tennessee who was overrated. The #1, # 2 and #4 seeds got knocked off by other teams.  

1985 Villanova is one of four outliers in four decades of tournaments. Not a compelling reason to expand the playoffs for a game that literally takes years off players lives. 

Since 1979 (40 years), only 24 teams ranked outside the Top 4 in their region have made it to the Final Four. Only 10 of those have made the Championship game. Only ‘83 NC State (6), ‘85 Nova (8), ‘88 KU (6), and ‘14 UConn (7) managed to beat the odds and win it all. Four times in 40 years a team outside of the Top 16 won it all. 36 times, a #1, 2, 3 or 4 seed has won it all. 23 of those were #1 seeds, or the Top 4 of over 350 teams.

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
BeatMeechigun's picture

WHY are CCGs seen as essential to determining a conference champion?

CCGs were created for $$$, not as an ideal solution to determining a conference champion.

Too frequently, CCGs fail to even bring the top two conference teams together.  And sometimes even if they do, they provide a rematch of a regular season game, de-valuing the winner of that contest while rewarding the loser.

Too frequently CCGs place the team that won the most critical conference game on their schedule in a situation where they must win an extra game while rewarding a division runner-up like Alabama last year.  That SEC CG was a must-win for Auburn, but the Tide get to sit at home with potato chips watching.

I'd rather scrap them and add another conference game.  Assign each team 3 locked rivals and rotate the rest.  Heck, OSU could trade annual division "rivalries" with Rutgers and MD to play Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, etc. more than once every 5 years.  If two teams that didn't play win up with matching records on top of the conference standings, use the polls to pick the representative for the playoff.

The scenario of "auto-bids" doesn't stink.  It's CCGs that stink.  They take up the spot of either an additional game for all teams or what could be another round of the playoffs and don't even give us a great way of selecting a conference champion.

HS
NavyBuckeye91's picture

I could buy into ditching the CCGs. And I completely agree they add little to nothing (thanks SEC).

Although I do believe the idea of Power conferences is overrated. The Group of Five have done remarkably well against the “Power Five” in recent years. 

"You beat cancer by how you live, why you live, & in the manner in which you live.
So, live. Live. Fight like hell. And when you get too tired to fight then lay down and rest and let somebody else fight for you. "
- Stuart Scott

HS
wigmon's picture

Because just like basketball, each conference gets to choose how its champion is decided.  I get that some people don't like the conference tournaments in basketball deciding the league champ, but the choice is up to the league.  The NCAA nor the committee dictates how they do it though the committee has mentioned a lack of an extra game (and quality win) as a possible consideration for making the playoff.

HS